Looking back on the first half of the year and future predic...
Looking back on the first half of the year and future predictions ②
There was a loss of 25k dollars compared to profit of 116k dollars, which was a positive profit and loss of 90k dollars in the first half of the year. During this time, gains from stock price increases were about 70%, and yen base assets increased by about 15% from 140 yen/dollar to 160 yen/dollar as the depreciation of the yen depreciation and appreciation of the dollar progressed.
As for the financial environment at the beginning of the year, it was thought that the number of cuts in US interest rates was more factored in than the market as of 6/30, but in reality, interest rate cuts by the Fed were not carried out for half a year due to high inflation. Meanwhile, interest rates in Japan have not changed on a scale that has an impact on the market, and as a result, the depreciation of the yen and appreciation of the dollar by 15% did not have structural changes, so I think it is an appropriate level.
As for changes in stock prices, the S&P 500 was 15% higher and the Nikkei average was 18% higher, and it was also strong as a market average, but even when looking at the rising and falling stock lines, I think there was a huge difference in how good or bad things were between industries and companies. Among the 62 stocks I own, semiconductor-related stocks, starting with NVDA, performed extremely well, while BRK.B lost money. Nonetheless, by being able to determine profits and losses in a timely manner, it is an advantage of individual stock investment that profits and losses can be controlled easily, so I think it is very meaningful to manage them separately from indices, which are core assets.
Finally, with regard to future predictions, changes in the financial environment will come out little by little, and it can be predicted that corporate performance will also be affected by the slowdown in the US economy and the presidential election, so there is a big risk that the second half of the year is in the same position as the first half. As an adjustment for myself, profits were determined for approximately 60% of the NVDA position, the cash position was increased by about 15%, and stocks were replaced from the three industries of energy, healthcare, and high technology to companies with strong performance and prospects.
By the end of this month, I would like to post about 1 more column looking back and predictions about dollar-yen ratios, asset allocation, and portfolios.
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