M Stanley Expects CN Dotcoms to be Curbed by Weak Macro in 2024; Top Pick PDD; NetEase, Tencent, New Oriental, Tencent Music, Baidu Favored
Morgan Stanley's Report Highlights:
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Chinese tech and internet stocks slightly outperformed the broader mainland market this year.
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Individual stock performance varies.
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Next year's performance expected to be dominated by non-market risks due to weak macro factors.
Morgan Stanley's Bullish Picks:
- Top Pick: Pinduoduo ( $PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ ) is highly recommended, showcasing unique growth opportunities in both local and overseas markets.
Other Overweight-Rated Stocks:
- $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ , $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ , $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ , and $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ are all rated Overweight, indicating positive prospects according to Morgan Stanley.
Rationale for Top Picks:
- Pinduoduo (PDD): Identified as the top pick due to its exceptional growth potential in local and international markets.
Resilient Sectors:
- Game and Music Content Providers: Resilience observed in companies like $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ , $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ , and $TME-SW (01698.HK)$ despite market fluctuations.
Specific Opportunities and Focus Areas:
- Unique Growth Opportunities: Attention directed towards PDD for its distinctive growth potential.
- Education Stocks: Notable interest in education stocks like $NEW ORIENTAL-S (09901.HK)$ and $TAL Education (TAL.US)$ .
AI Adoption and Positive Outlook:
- $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ : Despite gradual AI adoption, Morgan Stanley maintains a constructive outlook on Baidu.
Market Growth Forecasts for Highlighted Stocks (Next Year):
- PDD: Expected to benefit from unique growth prospects.
- Others (Alibaba, MEITUAN-W, JD, Bilibili): Rated Overweight, suggesting positive expectations.
Overall Industry Outlook (Next Year):
- Dot-Com Sector: Anticipated revenue growth of 10%, operating profit growth of 23%, and a 40 bps improvement in return on equity to 17.5%.
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