Mag7 being overvalued?
Let's examine the valuations from a few different angles.
Here are the returns of the Mag7 over the last 5 years.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 2,363.9%, CAGR 82.62%
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ 1,042.45%, CAGR 58.06%
$Apple (AAPL.US)$ 354.90%, CAGR 32.94%
$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ 251.54%, CAGR 26.65%
$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ 179.04%, CAGR 21.27%
$Meta Platforms (META.US)$ 168.77% CAGR 20.42%
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ 98.27%, CAGR 13.73%
S&P 500 79.75%
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 2,363.9%, CAGR 82.62%
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ 1,042.45%, CAGR 58.06%
$Apple (AAPL.US)$ 354.90%, CAGR 32.94%
$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ 251.54%, CAGR 26.65%
$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ 179.04%, CAGR 21.27%
$Meta Platforms (META.US)$ 168.77% CAGR 20.42%
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ 98.27%, CAGR 13.73%
S&P 500 79.75%
Conclusion: all beat the S&P 500, only $AMZN lags the Nasdaq.
Let's look at the 2024 EV/EBITDA first.
$META is the cheapest here, with 11.8x
$TSLA is the most expensive, with 36.8x, followed by $NVDA 31.2x, $MSFT 22x, $AMZN 13.8x & $GOOGL 12.7x.
How about FCF?🤔👇
Nasdaq 108.6%
Let's look at the 2024 EV/EBITDA first.
$META is the cheapest here, with 11.8x
$TSLA is the most expensive, with 36.8x, followed by $NVDA 31.2x, $MSFT 22x, $AMZN 13.8x & $GOOGL 12.7x.
How about FCF?🤔👇
Nasdaq 108.6%
Let's look at the 2024 P/FCF now.
Here, $TSLA is by far the most expensive, with 127.7x.
Second comes $MSFT 46x, followed by $NVDA 44x, $AMZN 32.2x, $AAPL 28.2x, $META 25.6x and $GOOGL is the cheapest at 25.6x.
Let's take a look at the 2024 PE ratios now.👇
Here, $TSLA is by far the most expensive, with 127.7x.
Second comes $MSFT 46x, followed by $NVDA 44x, $AMZN 32.2x, $AAPL 28.2x, $META 25.6x and $GOOGL is the cheapest at 25.6x.
Let's take a look at the 2024 PE ratios now.👇
Based on the 2024 PE ratio, $TSLA is again the most expensive one at 73.6x, $NVDA is 2nd with 38.3x.
$AMZN follows with 37.7x, $MSFT 33x, $AAPL 31.2x, $META 21.7x and $GOOGL 20.6x.
That looks all expensive, but growth should always be a factor, so let's look at the fwd PEG.👇
$AMZN follows with 37.7x, $MSFT 33x, $AAPL 31.2x, $META 21.7x and $GOOGL 20.6x.
That looks all expensive, but growth should always be a factor, so let's look at the fwd PEG.👇
You calculate the fwd PEG by taking the fwd PE and dividing it by the expected EPS growth. Between 1 and 2 is fair, higher expensive, lower cheap.
In short:
$AAPL: 9%
$MSFT: 11.3%
$GOOGL: 33.5%
$AMZN: 68.1%
$NVDA: $121.2%
$TSLA: -23.5%
$META: 41%
The resulting 2024 PEG ratios (cheap to expensive):
$NVDA: 0.31
$META: 0.53
$AMZN: 0.55
$GOOGL: 0.61
$MSFT: 2.92
$AAPL: 3.46
$TSLA: / (negative)
How about the 2025 PEG?👇
$AAPL: 9%
$MSFT: 11.3%
$GOOGL: 33.5%
$AMZN: 68.1%
$NVDA: $121.2%
$TSLA: -23.5%
$META: 41%
The resulting 2024 PEG ratios (cheap to expensive):
$NVDA: 0.31
$META: 0.53
$AMZN: 0.55
$GOOGL: 0.61
$MSFT: 2.92
$AAPL: 3.46
$TSLA: / (negative)
How about the 2025 PEG?👇
First, we have to look at the expectations for 2025 and calculate the PE.
2025 PE, 2025 EPS growth%:
2025 PE, 2025 EPS growth%:
$AAPL: 29.7, 10.6%,
$GOOGL: 19.7, 14%
$MSFT: 31.5, 12.2%
$META: 19.5, 14.5%
$NVDA: 30.1, 36%
$TSLA: 67, 36%
$AMZN: 31.2, 26.4%
2025 PEG👇
That results in these 2025 PEG ratios (expensive to cheap):
$AAPL: 2.8
$MSFT: 2.58
$TSLA: 1.9
$GOOGL: 1.4
$META: 1.3
$AMZN: 1.2
$NVDA: 0.83
$GOOGL: 19.7, 14%
$MSFT: 31.5, 12.2%
$META: 19.5, 14.5%
$NVDA: 30.1, 36%
$TSLA: 67, 36%
$AMZN: 31.2, 26.4%
2025 PEG👇
That results in these 2025 PEG ratios (expensive to cheap):
$AAPL: 2.8
$MSFT: 2.58
$TSLA: 1.9
$GOOGL: 1.4
$META: 1.3
$AMZN: 1.2
$NVDA: 0.83
The conclusion?
$AAPL & $MSFT look expensive
$TSLA borderline expensive
$GOOGL, $META & $AMZN very fairly valued
$NVDA looks cheap here👀
$AAPL & $MSFT look expensive
$TSLA borderline expensive
$GOOGL, $META & $AMZN very fairly valued
$NVDA looks cheap here👀
How many and which do you own of the Mag7?
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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Ming1314 : Nvdia
gunzgunz : $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$