A series of major events are coming for Tesla! What should we pay attention to in the next 3 months?
Recently, Tesla has launched the 13th version of the driving assistance software FSD to customers. Tesla's autopilot engineer Arek Sredzki pointed out that the improvements in this update are huge, allowing vehicles to transport passengers from one parking lot to another (P2P) using the end-to-end network of the system.
When Musk retweeted Elluswamy's tweet, he directly expressed: 'Great!' Previously, he stated that the FSD in version 13 is expected to be over 5 times better than v12.5.5.3. The market also fully recognizes the progress of the Tesla AI team, with Tesla's stock price rebounding over 7% in the last two trading days.
Tesla plans to gradually roll out this version to more vehicles in the coming weeks, and it is expected that most owners will receive the update by the end of December. In addition to the field of AI, Tesla will also experience several major milestones in the near future, any new breakthrough will have a significant impact on the stock price. Futu news has compiled several key events for investors to refer to.
Optimus's new design is released.
Recently, Tesla is improving the design of the Optimus robot to address key bottlenecks in the production process. Musk revealed, "Optimus has been performing some tasks in the factory, and its capabilities are rapidly expanding. The most challenging part at present is to improve the design of Optimus to make it easy to manufacture and equip it with a sophisticated supply chain for mass production.
On November 28th local time, Tesla's robot official account posted a new update. In the video, Optimus steadily catches and releases a tennis ball thrown at it, and its fingers can bend relatively flexibly. The dexterous hand is the most eye-catching feature of Tesla's second-generation Optimus.
Tesla's Optimus engineer, Milan Kovac, called the newly demonstrated dexterous hand a "milestone achievement." According to him, compared to the previous generation product, this new hand/forearm has double the freedom (22 degrees of freedom in the hand and 3 degrees of freedom in the wrist/forearm). Kovac stated that the video was completed in real-time in the lab through remote operation, and Tesla will soon manufacture robots equipped with the new dexterous hand.
As December approaches, it remains to be seen whether Optimus will have any further design updates and how the progress in factory usage is.
Cybertruck
Starting from mid-August, Tesla stopped accepting orders for the cheapest version of the Cybertruck priced at 0.061 million US dollars, while the higher priced 0.1 million US dollars version of the Cybertruck could be ordered immediately. Industry analysts pointed out that this adjustment indicates inventory buildup of the more expensive version of Cybertruck, with demand lower than expected.
Whether the low-cost version of the Cybertruck can be relisted at the end of the year has become the focus of investors' attention. In addition, it is also worth noting whether the weekly production capacity of the Cybertruck can be increased to 2,500 vehicles. Tesla announced at the 2024 annual shareholders' meeting that the weekly production capacity of the Cybertruck is 1,300 vehicles, with the expectation of increasing this number to 2,500 by the end of the year.
However, a recent piece of news has tempered the market's optimistic expectations. Tesla notified workers on the Cybertruck production line at the Austin factory to take a three-day break from Tuesday to Thursday. According to the workers on the Cybertruck production line, since late October, their schedules have been unstable, with several instances of either being sent home after reporting to work or being required to undergo additional training or cleaning to fill in their work hours. Signs indicate that the demand for the Cybertruck may have started to weaken.
- Q4 delivery data and performance
In order to meet the full-year sales target for 2024, Tesla has extended the deadline for the limited-time 5-year 0% finance plan for certain models of the Model 3 and Model Y to December 31. The activity was launched in July this year and this is Tesla's fifth extension.
In the first three quarters of this year, Tesla delivered a total of 1.294 million vehicles, a 2% year-on-year decrease. Musk predicts that Tesla's full-year sales in 2024 will achieve positive growth, meaning the sales flag for the fourth quarter has been set: they must reach at least 0.51 million units, an increase of 0.03 million more units compared to the same period last year. This number will be announced next month on the 2nd.
Next month, Tesla will announce its Q4 and full-year performance. Prior to the Q3 earnings call, Musk provided expectations for the affordable model, which has also become one of the focal points for investors next year.
In the third quarter, Tesla's revenue increased by nearly 8% year-on-year, although it was lower than expected, but there was a profit surprise. The gross margin increased by 195 basis points year-on-year to 19.8%, exceeding expectations in the automotive segment with a gross margin of 17.1%; "carbon credit" revenue increased by over 30% year-on-year, reaching a quarterly high; the energy storage business recorded a record gross margin of 30.5% in the third quarter.
-FSD
On September 5th, Tesla AI posted on the social media platform "X" that Tesla plans to launch a high-level driving assistance system called "Full Self Driving" (FSD) in China and Europe in the first quarter of next year.
Several sources revealed that the Chinese government supports Tesla in conducting partial FSD feature trials under existing laws and regulations, but the introduction of FSD to China has not yet been approved by regulatory authorities, and relevant evaluations are still ongoing. Musk has applied to relevant departments to obtain some video data for system training, and has promised that this data can be rigorously reviewed by relevant departments. Whether FSD can successfully land in China and Europe in the first quarter of next year will also be a focus of investors' attention.
Stifel's analyst raised Tesla's target price to $411 on Monday, becoming Tesla's top bull on Wall Street, stating that its AI-based FSD capability has "significant" potential, which will drive Musk's Robotaxi dream.
- Shanghai Super Energy Storage Plant
The Tesla Energy Super Factory, a project located in shanghai lingang holdings, established on April 9, 2023, plans to produce Tesla's large commercial energy storage battery (Megapack), with an initial planned annual production capacity of commercial energy storage batteries of up to 0.01 million units, an energy storage capacity of nearly 40GWh, and products to be provided globally. The Tesla Energy Super Factory project is expected to start test production this month and officially commence mass production in the first quarter of 2025.
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