Marie's perspective.
Trump won. Despite being a close race with results unclear for days, Trump's victory was overwhelming. This is good for the stock market. It is not ideal for the situation to continue in a stagnant state. Therefore, today the stock market surged. However, interest rates also rose. Is it a good idea to buy during this surge? If so, what should you buy? That's the topic for today.
A red wave on election night.
On the night of the presidential election, a live broadcast of about three hours was publicly available with commentary starting at 21:30 American time (11:30 AM Japan time). The recording is also publicly available, so please watch it if you can (link in the reply section).
By 21:30, with 95% of the votes already counted in Florida, where the polling stations closed at 19:00, there was already a significant 14% difference. I think this set the tone for election night.
"Huh, in Florida, a 14% difference? Wait, does this mean Trump has already won in Florida?" I was also surprised. Florida had already been decided before I started the live stream.
During the Clinton era, Florida was a major battleground where Trump won by a narrow margin of 1.2%. However, with Biden, the gap sometimes widened to over 3%, so this time although it was not recognized as a battleground, no one expected a 14% lead and victory to be determined by 9:30.
At this point, the betting sites had already factored in Trump's victory with a probability of over 60% (You can see the movement of the betting sites in real time by watching my video). I think this was due to the results in Florida.
And when the results came out, it was a landslide victory for Trump. This is a chart from the New York Times. Compared to Biden in 2020, Trump expanded his share in 2,367 electoral districts, while Kamala only expanded in 240 districts. (The reason there are no arrows on the west coast states is because the results were not yet available when this article was written).
On the night of the presidential election, a live broadcast of about three hours was publicly available with commentary starting at 21:30 American time (11:30 AM Japan time). The recording is also publicly available, so please watch it if you can (link in the reply section).
By 21:30, with 95% of the votes already counted in Florida, where the polling stations closed at 19:00, there was already a significant 14% difference. I think this set the tone for election night.
"Huh, in Florida, a 14% difference? Wait, does this mean Trump has already won in Florida?" I was also surprised. Florida had already been decided before I started the live stream.
During the Clinton era, Florida was a major battleground where Trump won by a narrow margin of 1.2%. However, with Biden, the gap sometimes widened to over 3%, so this time although it was not recognized as a battleground, no one expected a 14% lead and victory to be determined by 9:30.
At this point, the betting sites had already factored in Trump's victory with a probability of over 60% (You can see the movement of the betting sites in real time by watching my video). I think this was due to the results in Florida.
And when the results came out, it was a landslide victory for Trump. This is a chart from the New York Times. Compared to Biden in 2020, Trump expanded his share in 2,367 electoral districts, while Kamala only expanded in 240 districts. (The reason there are no arrows on the west coast states is because the results were not yet available when this article was written).
No one had expected this red wave. A fierce battle was anticipated, and some strategists even thought it might end up in the hands of the Supreme Court, with the results unknown for weeks. The election forecasts once again turned out to be wrong.
The reasons why Trump won, why the red wave occurred, and my interpretations on these matters are discussed in the video. At this point, Trump has won by over 300 votes, the Republicans have secured the Senate, and though the House is still unclear, the Republicans have an advantage. In other words, the Red Sweep has happened.
Stock market movements on Tuesday and Wednesday
Stock prices move based on the gap between actual news and the previously anticipated results already factored in. The completely unexpected red wave was not factored in at all.
Looking at the prices of the Dollar, 10-year bond yields, Bitcoin, and S&P500 futures while the election venues were open, it's clear that players were increasingly assuming the scenario where Trump wins and were taking positions accordingly.
The reasons why Trump won, why the red wave occurred, and my interpretations on these matters are discussed in the video. At this point, Trump has won by over 300 votes, the Republicans have secured the Senate, and though the House is still unclear, the Republicans have an advantage. In other words, the Red Sweep has happened.
Stock market movements on Tuesday and Wednesday
Stock prices move based on the gap between actual news and the previously anticipated results already factored in. The completely unexpected red wave was not factored in at all.
Looking at the prices of the Dollar, 10-year bond yields, Bitcoin, and S&P500 futures while the election venues were open, it's clear that players were increasingly assuming the scenario where Trump wins and were taking positions accordingly.
Trump Trade
In other words, this is the Trump trade. A strong dollar, high interest rates (bond prices are low), high Bitcoin prices, and high stock prices.
High interest rates are due to concerns about inflation from fiscal deficits and tariffs. The strong dollar is due to high interest rates. Trump supports cryptocurrencies. The rise in stocks is expected due to tax cuts.
On the Wednesday after the election, stock prices rose across the board. The S&P500 rose by 2.49%, Nasdaq by 2.64%, Dow by 3.58%, and the Russell 2000 by 5.83%. It was Dow's largest single-day gain since 2022.
Trump sector
And this is the Trump sector. Today moved as per the textbook.
In other words, this is the Trump trade. A strong dollar, high interest rates (bond prices are low), high Bitcoin prices, and high stock prices.
High interest rates are due to concerns about inflation from fiscal deficits and tariffs. The strong dollar is due to high interest rates. Trump supports cryptocurrencies. The rise in stocks is expected due to tax cuts.
On the Wednesday after the election, stock prices rose across the board. The S&P500 rose by 2.49%, Nasdaq by 2.64%, Dow by 3.58%, and the Russell 2000 by 5.83%. It was Dow's largest single-day gain since 2022.
Trump sector
And this is the Trump sector. Today moved as per the textbook.
The strong performers were mega caps, financials, energy, and capital goods (industrials).
The weak performers were healthcare, consumer staples, residential construction (including HD and LOW), real estate, and utilities.
In other words, stocks sensitive to the economy rose, while recession-resistant stocks fell (healthcare, consumer staples, utilities). Stocks that are adversely affected by rising interest rates also declined (residential construction, real estate, utilities).
Trump stocks
Even more specifically, there are Trump stocks. Of course, the top Trump stock is Tesla. It rose by 15% today. But Elon is getting busier, and I'm a little worried if Tesla is alright.
Conversely, interesting among the Trump unfavorable stocks today was META. META has been declining by over 1% all day and finally broke even at the close. AAPL also declined against other mega-caps. META and AAPL may be identified as enemies of Trump, but I personally don't think their actual impact is that significant.
China-related stocks fell due to tariff concerns. TSM was down 1.3%, KWEB was down 2%. EV-related stocks were also weak. RIVN declined by 8.3%, LCID by 5.3%.
Speaking of strength, major banks and investment banks GS, MS, JPM, WFS all rose by double digits today. This is because with Trump, activities like M&A become easier, leading to increased revenue. In addition, with rising long-term interest rates, the yield curve becomes normal and profit margins increase. The economy is also strong, so there are no worries about loan defaults and lending is expected to grow.
Local banks also surged today. Regional banks are likely anticipating a normal yield curve and a strong economy.
Now what to do? My own judgment and bias
The question is whether this trend will continue until the end of the year, or if it's just for today, or maybe just for a few days. Is it worth following this price movement? That is the million-dollar question.
The elections are said to be good for stocks when the Senate and the House of Representatives are twisted, so it's not too good for the Akagumi Sogitori. However, I have a gut feeling that it will continue to rise until the end of the year.
Today's rise felt more like institutions buying rather than selling. Portfolio managers who need to show performance by the end of the year seem to be frantically buying.
Institutions are not done buying in one day.
Furthermore, there were quite a few people saying things like 'Sell the news' or 'fade this rise' and investors who were aiming for a drop in September and October are likely to be conserving cash since there was no significant drop.
It might be okay to straightforwardly ride the rising trend now.
The biggest concern is how high the 10-year bond yield will rise. It is currently at 4.4%, and if it gets close to 5%, it is likely to have an impact on the economy so caution is necessary.
My recent trades
The stocks I am considering holding long-term are TSLA, PLTR, META, NVDA. I have already invested heavily in NVDA and META.
I bought TSLA on the day the robot taxi went down, and it went up by as much as 31% in less than a month.
I missed the incredible surge of PLTR before the 2Q earnings, so this time I went ahead and bought it before the earnings on Monday.
After much hesitation, I bought PLTR about 15 minutes before the market closed, and it surged by 34% just two days after the earnings.
I think both TSLA and PLTR have increased too much in a short period, and they seem to have become somewhat meme stocks, mainly popular among retail investors, so I do not recommend buying them at this point.
There will probably be another buying opportunity, and if you are trading, it might be a good idea to sell for now.
However, I intend to hold both for 10 years, so I am not too worried, and if they drop, I plan to buy more.
Other stocks I have bought in the past month include NFLX and UBER. I also bought some PYPL today. These are the stocks I thought would be good to discuss in the study sessions.
I bought NFLX before the earnings, so it is now up by 13%. UBER, on the other hand, has dropped by 13% from where I bought it. I plan to hold them for the long term, so I am not too concerned.
Well, how will the year end? I vote for more growth from here. But if it goes down, I would also welcome it because I want to buy more of these stocks.
It's fun to go up, it's fun to go down. That's the enjoyment of stocks!
The weak performers were healthcare, consumer staples, residential construction (including HD and LOW), real estate, and utilities.
In other words, stocks sensitive to the economy rose, while recession-resistant stocks fell (healthcare, consumer staples, utilities). Stocks that are adversely affected by rising interest rates also declined (residential construction, real estate, utilities).
Trump stocks
Even more specifically, there are Trump stocks. Of course, the top Trump stock is Tesla. It rose by 15% today. But Elon is getting busier, and I'm a little worried if Tesla is alright.
Conversely, interesting among the Trump unfavorable stocks today was META. META has been declining by over 1% all day and finally broke even at the close. AAPL also declined against other mega-caps. META and AAPL may be identified as enemies of Trump, but I personally don't think their actual impact is that significant.
China-related stocks fell due to tariff concerns. TSM was down 1.3%, KWEB was down 2%. EV-related stocks were also weak. RIVN declined by 8.3%, LCID by 5.3%.
Speaking of strength, major banks and investment banks GS, MS, JPM, WFS all rose by double digits today. This is because with Trump, activities like M&A become easier, leading to increased revenue. In addition, with rising long-term interest rates, the yield curve becomes normal and profit margins increase. The economy is also strong, so there are no worries about loan defaults and lending is expected to grow.
Local banks also surged today. Regional banks are likely anticipating a normal yield curve and a strong economy.
Now what to do? My own judgment and bias
The question is whether this trend will continue until the end of the year, or if it's just for today, or maybe just for a few days. Is it worth following this price movement? That is the million-dollar question.
The elections are said to be good for stocks when the Senate and the House of Representatives are twisted, so it's not too good for the Akagumi Sogitori. However, I have a gut feeling that it will continue to rise until the end of the year.
Today's rise felt more like institutions buying rather than selling. Portfolio managers who need to show performance by the end of the year seem to be frantically buying.
Institutions are not done buying in one day.
Furthermore, there were quite a few people saying things like 'Sell the news' or 'fade this rise' and investors who were aiming for a drop in September and October are likely to be conserving cash since there was no significant drop.
It might be okay to straightforwardly ride the rising trend now.
The biggest concern is how high the 10-year bond yield will rise. It is currently at 4.4%, and if it gets close to 5%, it is likely to have an impact on the economy so caution is necessary.
My recent trades
The stocks I am considering holding long-term are TSLA, PLTR, META, NVDA. I have already invested heavily in NVDA and META.
I bought TSLA on the day the robot taxi went down, and it went up by as much as 31% in less than a month.
I missed the incredible surge of PLTR before the 2Q earnings, so this time I went ahead and bought it before the earnings on Monday.
After much hesitation, I bought PLTR about 15 minutes before the market closed, and it surged by 34% just two days after the earnings.
I think both TSLA and PLTR have increased too much in a short period, and they seem to have become somewhat meme stocks, mainly popular among retail investors, so I do not recommend buying them at this point.
There will probably be another buying opportunity, and if you are trading, it might be a good idea to sell for now.
However, I intend to hold both for 10 years, so I am not too worried, and if they drop, I plan to buy more.
Other stocks I have bought in the past month include NFLX and UBER. I also bought some PYPL today. These are the stocks I thought would be good to discuss in the study sessions.
I bought NFLX before the earnings, so it is now up by 13%. UBER, on the other hand, has dropped by 13% from where I bought it. I plan to hold them for the long term, so I am not too concerned.
Well, how will the year end? I vote for more growth from here. But if it goes down, I would also welcome it because I want to buy more of these stocks.
It's fun to go up, it's fun to go down. That's the enjoyment of stocks!
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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