Market analysis and strategy suggestions on September 20
The day of skyrocketing was also the day I was slapped in the face. I originally predicted that the market would usher in a big dive after the Fed's interest rate meeting, but the market rebounded violently and broke through the resistance level strongly, slapping me in the face again
I reviewed this "wrong prediction". Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, I had already judged that the interest rate would be cut by 25 basis points. I thought this was a good thing. A 50 basis point interest rate cut means the failure of the US financial war against China, and also means that the US economy has shown signs of recession. Institutions are going to start hyping up the economic recession, so it is likely to be a bad thing and trigger a round of plunges.
I also shared with you that the 50 basis point interest rate cut was interpreted as a good thing or a bad thing. In fact, all the right of interpretation is in the hands of Wall Street institutions.
This time, I mainly underestimated the shamelessness of Wall Street institutions, especially Powell's innovative invention of a new term [recalibration].
Powell explained at a press conference on Wednesday: "We know that it is time to recalibrate our policies to make them more consistent with the current situation. Given that inflation and employment levels are moving toward more sustainable levels, the balance of risks has become more balanced."
Is the US economy in recession? I still maintain my original prediction. I told you yesterday that today is the Quadruple Witching Day. I continue to be bearish. Let's analyze it together!
1. After the US stock market closed on Thursday, September 19, Eastern Time, FedEx announced the company's first quarter of fiscal year 2025 (hereinafter referred to as the first quarter) financial data as of August 31, 2024, and provided performance guidance for the full year of fiscal year 2025 (hereinafter referred to as the full year).
After the financial report was released, FedEx, which closed up more than 9.7% on Thursday, plunged in the US stock market after the market, and now fell 13% before the market.
FedEx has always been an economic weathervane in the United States. Sales revenue turned to negative growth and profits fell sharply beyond expectations, indicating that demand in the package delivery industry is sluggish, especially in priority express services. Worse still, FedEx also lowered its revenue and profit guidance for the current fiscal year amid weaker-than-expected freight demand, a key indicator of the economic recession.
2. A friend asked me what Quadruple Witching is and what it has to do with market fluctuations
Quadruple Witching , which means that stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire and are delivered at the same time today. It usually occurs on the third Friday of March, June, September and December.
It is estimated that 5.1 trillion options will expire this time. Although the scale is not the highest in history, it is also quite large. In addition, this quadruple witching day also coincides with the rebalancing of the S&P 500 index, which further exacerbates possible future fluctuations.
Because investors need to adjust their positions, the market tends to have large fluctuations around the quadruple witching day.
Yesterday I was worried that the market would collapse, but I have always emphasized that this year is a big bull market, especially in the US stock market, don't short the market. I misjudged the short-term trend of the market, which made me a little depressed. After all, I was very confident that the index would usher in a wave of diving after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, but in the end it can be said that it was the opposite.
Let's take a look at the strategy sharing of the past two days, NVDA, WDAY on Tuesday, ANRO, HUBS on Wednesday, PATH NIO on Thursday In fact, all these long opportunities have made money, and I make money almost every day. I will make corresponding strategies based on my judgment of the market.
Today I will share my usual operation strategies, which generally have four strategies:
① Bullish on US stocks, bullish on individual stocks, and heavy long positions;
② Bullish on US stocks, bearish on individual stocks, and look for other long opportunities;
③ Bearish on US stocks, bullish on individual stocks, and small long positions;
④ Bearish on US stocks, bearish on individual stocks, and short growth stocks and junk stocks.
This is why I made a wrong prediction of the market trend in the past two days, but I didn’t lose money in the end. I have a habit that unless I lose money, my short-term views will basically remain unchanged.
Although investment requires timely correction of your mistakes, don’t think it will rise when you see an increase, and don’t think it will fall when you see a decrease. At this position, I will still stick to my views. Many times, investment is about not sticking to your own views, but because you stick to it, you win the final victory. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
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The underlying logic of stock market trading is to stifle human nature
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Stock Senior OP : My views on the market are my own and do not provide financial advice. If you like it, please like it, and if you don't like it, please leave it.
Simon 5183 : After the Federal Reserve meeting, there was indeed a sharp drop before rebounding the next day. The 20 basis point cut was aimed at providing positive news for the Democratic Party's He Jinli, but it may actually trigger weakened inflation and rising housing prices!
105364426 : Well the experts said bonds and reits will benefit from rate cuts, and both plunge in value in the 2 days after the announcement. Meanwhile, banks are doing very well against prediction
Alen Kok Stock Senior OP : I agree with your point of view, but now is not the time for a crash. The crash will happen after a wave of crazy retail investors enter the market.
Deltaman099 : Short term it’s unpredictable!