Market analysis on October 14th

The two major U.S. stock indexes hit new highs again, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rising for the second consecutive day. Nvidia surged over 2%, hitting a four-month high and becoming a significant driver of the U.S. stock market's rise.

Meanwhile, Chinese concept stocks index experienced a decline, falling over 2%. Xpeng and Nio Inc. both dropped by nearly 10% and over 7%, while PDD Holdings also fell by 6%, hitting the lowest level of the month. Offshore RMB plummeted by nearly 300 points to below 7.10, marking a new low in over a week.

In China's financial markets, new social financing reached 3.76 trillion yuan in September, with new RMB loans totaling 1.59 trillion yuan. Boosted by the stock market recovery, M2 money supply growth rate rebounded to 6.8%, while M1 money supply continued to decline. At the same time, the phenomenon of early repayment by residents has decreased.

In the international market, due to the closure of the U.S. bond market, the USD index rebounded to a two-month high, while the Japanese yen hit a over two-month low. Bitcoin price surged by nearly $4,000 during the session, breaking the 0.066 million USD mark, reaching a high of over two weeks.

The surge in Nvidia's stock price is attributed to the high expectations for its new Blackwell chip. In a recent lengthy interview, CEO Huang Renxun mentioned the imminent arrival of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), expecting AI to fundamentally alter productivity, further igniting investors' enthusiasm.

Expectations are high for Taiwan Semiconductor's financial report. HSBC's research report forecasts that Taiwan Semiconductor's performance will continue to stay at the high end of expectations. HSBC also stated that with the accelerated mass production and pricing enhancements of the 2-nanometer technology, it is expected that Taiwan Semiconductor's profit margin will expand in the next two years, driving profit growth. In addition, Nomura Securities predicts that Taiwan Semiconductor's advanced packaging business will continue to be in short supply until 2026.

In the commodity market, OPEC revised down expectations for crude oil demand growth, leading to consecutive two-day declines in oil prices, nearing a one-week low. News after the market close indicated that Israel does not intend to attack Iran's oil targets, causing further widening of the drop in oil prices, nearly approaching 5%. After hitting a high of over a week, the gold price turned downwards, and the prices of base metals also ended two consecutive days of gains, with London zinc and tin prices falling by over 2%, while London copper hit a four-week low.

Asian markets showed strong performance, with A-share turnover breaking 1.6 trillion yuan, the Shanghai Composite Index closing up by 2.07%, defense stocks and convertible bond concept stocks collectively surging, and multiple CMB series listed companies implementing share repurchases.

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