Market outlook where optimism in US stocks intersects with the instability of international situation.
① Expectations for the rise of US stocks: Optimistic outlook exists, but the sustained growth of cyclical stocks is uncertain.
② Tension in the Middle East: Crude oil prices soaring, continuing risk of instability in the energy market.
Concerns about the safety of the US communications infrastructure have increased due to suspicions of hacking in China.
Probability of recession lowered: The economy is doing well, but if employment statistics deteriorate, the risk of recession may resurface.
Support for rate cuts expressed: While emphasizing the advancement of inflation, there are also concerns about the negative impact of rate cuts on the labor market.
【Cultural Perspectives】
Having seen the morning news, I consider it a good sign that optimism towards US stocks is increasing.
However, I am concerned about the increasing international instability due to factors such as rising oil prices caused by tension in the Middle East and suspicions of intrusion by Chinese hackers into US telecommunications companies.
Although the probability of recession has been reduced, I feel that depending on future economic indicators, there is a possibility of an increased risk of an economic downturn again.
Finally, it is necessary to continue monitoring the trends in inflation and the labor market as rate cuts progress.
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