Market Overview

On Friday, the U.S. May core PCE inflation increased by 2.6%, the lowest in more than three years. The short-term inflation outlook for U.S. consumers fell, temporarily lowering the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, and boosting market bets on rate cuts.

U.S. stocks fell on the last trading day of June. After hitting new highs during the session, $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$ and $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US)$ both closed lower along with $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)$ , possibly influenced by bearish sentiments from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. $Amazon(AMZN.US)$ , $Alphabet-A(GOOGL.US)$ , and $Microsoft(MSFT.US)$ fell from their highs. Most chip stocks rose, but $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ dropped 0.4% after a 3% gain. Driven by the AI frenzy, the Nasdaq rose 18% in the first half of the year, while the S&P 500 rose 14.5%.

The market started pricing in the possibility of Trump winning the U.S. presidential election, leading to a significant rebound in U.S. Treasury yields from their daily lows on Friday.

The dollar rose for four consecutive weeks, gaining over 3% in the first half of the year. The yen briefly fell below 161, hitting its lowest level in 38 years, and dropped 12% in the first half. The offshore yuan hovered around the seven-month low of 7.30.

Oil prices rose for three consecutive weeks, nearing their highest since late April. U.S. oil prices rose over 6% in June, with both WTI and Brent crude up more than 12% in the first half. Gold experienced its first monthly decline in four months but rose nearly 14% in the first half, while silver increased by almost 26% this year. In June, London nickel fell 12%, aluminum and copper fell nearly 5%, while tin rose more than 29% and copper over 12% in the first half.