Market review and outlook (07/08-11/08)
“The market can and will destroy anyone who overlooks risk and danger.” -M.M
Before analyzing this week's market, I'd like to mention a long-forgotten structural chart: the 2B structure. This structure has an average of 7-14 weeks (35-70 days) of up/down trends (with the exception of a small number of individual stocks) before forming on the daily chart. Compared to the regular structure, it is more deceptive for ordinary traders, so the success rate of use will be very high. The peak of the candle above or below the gap is a critical line. The first buy/sell candle marked on the chart will basically increase in trading volume.
Here's an example of 5 of the top 7 tech stocks: $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ , They all started a turnaround with this structure, and the impact on the market is self-evident![]()
(It is not recommended to blindly review the bottom. In the 7-14 week upward trend adjustment, most of the 50 EMA cannot be maintained. It is recommended to use the 2B structure and weekly charts to stand at 10 EMA when trading volume increases to find trading opportunities![]()
)
Let's go back to the general market chart $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ First, I must admit to myself that the analysis of the first two weeks was wrong, and that last week there were turnaround signals that mentioned NDX 6 times and IXIC 4 times (people who take a close look at last week's analysis will find out). I actually saw them myself, but I didn't pay attention to them (lucky ones are biased; I think this time will be different; if you don't pay attention to the signals given by the market, you will be taught by the market if you don't pay attention to the signals given by the market![]()
).
The turnaround signals after the end of the week were: NDX 7 times, SPX 6 times, IXIC 6 times, DJI 4 times (a reversal was established after 4-6 signals, from the selling point summed up by old man William.J. O'Neil)
Combined with the selling strategy given by the 2B structure, NDX, IXIC, and SPX also gave a sell signal![]()
Since DJI has just broken through a long-term platform, it won't be greatly affected (with $Boeing (BA.US)$ (As an example, soon after the breakthrough of the same long-term platform)
Long cycle lifeline ~ supplementary callback limit values: SPX around 4255, QQQ around 339. The next bottom is reasonable above these numbers; if it's lower... then it's not a pullback![]()
As for the future, I'm personally optimistic.
Why is the market falling? How low did the market adjust to? How long will it take to adjust? None of the above matters; find your own drum beat (rhythm) and wait patiently for the signal you need to see.
The AI concept is currently in its infancy, and I'm personally excited about the opportunity after this adjustment![]()
“After decades of watching and living in the midst of a market storm, you'll learn not to stick your hand in when you see a fire. I've been burned so many times that I've forgotten what “slash and spill” really means, long or short. Market behavior follows a unique repetitive pattern that can provide clear lessons, so when you see the market starting to perform poorly, you instinctively know it's time to retreat within the required few weeks or months. During that time, you won't go on vacation or ignore the market; you still need to keep an eye on the market every day so you know when the market calms down and returns to normal. Being diligent even in the face of market fluctuations is part of seizing the timing.” -Dan Zanger “Momentum Master”
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股勇者 : QQQ 339? It's a bit scary
sTone83 OP 股勇者 : Dude, you misunderstood. The bottom of 339 and above is a healthy pullback, and below 339 is an infinite abyss![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
sTone83 OP 股勇者 : The lifeline of a long cycle is at the 30-week moving average![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
股中股 sTone83 OP : If you break 339, it's hard to get on
sTone83 OP 股中股 : It can be understood that way![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
股中股 : It all depends on the day k, but the results are not the same
sTone83 OP 股中股 : The big cycle depends on Week K. The probability that QQQ falls below 339 is not great; 34X or 35X is more likely, but none of these matters. As long as it satisfies 339 or more, you can just wait for the maximum signal. You can start a profit from shorting when the profit of shorting reaches 3 times the stop loss![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
股中股 : US stocks are bearish or not shorting; the risk of shorting is limitless
魔家 : I've learned!![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Does the turnaround signal indicate a fall below EMA10 at the close?
sTone83 OP 魔家 : I am most satisfied with this issue of the market analysis. I hope you can benefit from it![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
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