Market Review+Core Position Analysis (08/01-12/01)
“Trading is risky. Life is risky. To be rewarded, you have to take some risks. But there's one huge risk you should avoid at all costs: the risk of taking no action. Brave people won't live forever, but those who are too careful will never actually live.” -Mark Minervini
A quick review of this week's market behavior:
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ Full sync: Monday draws money, week divides.
DJI > SPX > NDX
From a higher perspective, you can see that the three market indices continued to rise after breaking out of the cup pattern, and then made various adjustments. The charts of the three indices reflect an unmistakable fact: the market is currently on an upward trend, and it is only in the early stages. The power of trends is strong, and intermittent noise (bad news/news) can hardly stop the trend from moving forward, so I'll never go against the trend.
To take a closer look, let's take a look at the NDX and SPX weekly charts, two bigger teacups! All moving averages move upward. After a short period of crossing, they began to develop from tight to loose, and were only in the early stages of expansion. If the subsequent progress goes well, these moving averages will begin to expand like springs that have just been loosened, thus continuing to push the price upward. The above phenomenon has great advantages for medium- to long-term transactions.
Market sentiment has not changed much and will continue to be tracked 👇
Then let's look at some stocks, which were mentioned here last week $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US$ $Uber Technologies(UBER.US$ $PDD Holdings(PDD.US$ $New Oriental(EDU.US$ $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ $Meta Platforms(META.US$ . 👇
Excluding MSFT (due to its excessive size, the growth rate is limited, making it difficult to meet my average trading earnings expectations), plus 6 other names $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US$ (My old friend is back) is my current core position.
Let's analyze them by expanding them one by one:
$PDD Holdings(PDD.US$ He has been creating higher highs and higher lows since July 2023, especially in the Chinese market and its tough period. Not only that, he has performed much better than QQQ in the same period (last 5 months)! Judging from the weekly chart, it is currently the second or third base in the upward phase. The huge teacup handle from January to October 2023 is the largest accumulation area, and prices and trading volume have been tight and dry for the last 6 weeks. Going back to the daily chart, you can see that the high-quality candles from the last 15 days or so have basically had a large trading volume, while the poor candles have a low trading volume... All of the above shows that it has all the elements monster stocks should have. It has been added three times now, and I need to keep riding until he gets bad 🚴🏻
$New Oriental(EDU.US$ It has also been creating higher highs and higher lows, and has also maintained excellent performance in the harsh environment of the Chinese market, while also defeating QQQ by a large margin. On the weekly chart, it is currently on an upward trend of having completed 2-3 bases. The largest base is from January to July 2023. Returning to the daily chart, in December 2023, the poor news node in the Chinese market was lowered to around 50MA, and buying power was seen, and the long-term upward trend gradually continued. After the three moving averages were consolidated, preparations were made to expand again. The recent trading volume was also generally healthy. It's been added twice so far, so I'll see if I need to add it again, and keep riding for now 🚴🏻
$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US$ It was one of my winners in 2023 (June-July 2023). It continued to be highly correlated with NVDA. It bought in November 2023 when it broke through the downtrend line, but after falling below the stop-loss line 8 days later, then formed a higher low and higher high. This was followed by a low trading volume correction of about two weeks, which once again showed a higher low. After this two-week basic downward trend line, it broke through again in January of this year. The stop loss was close to this low (red line) on the 7th. Profit, along with The arrival of a large amount of profit in the short term, the stop loss raised to the bottom of the second giant green candle, a large increase in the trading volume of the candle, and the gradual decrease in trading volume during the sideways or pullback phase are all healthy and strong signs. On the weekly chart and daily chart, you can see a 5-6 month teacup arrangement pattern at the same time. Such a long accumulation and sorting cycle will make holders more confident in future potential upward trends. Currently only added 1 time, more will be added (1-2 times) as potential subsequent breakthroughs will be added, keep riding 🚴🏻
$Uber Technologies(UBER.US$ Beginning in August 2023, a two-month potential recovery adjustment was carried out. In October, a deep downward test suddenly appeared. It soon bounced like tennis. In November 2023, it was quickly added before and after breaking through the 3-month high, then quickly added again after breaking through the 3-month sorting platform, then riding for 2 months. After the price fell below the consolidation platform on January 2, 2024, the price stopped falling by half. After breaking through the small bottom of the 3 candles, the price stopped falling 4 days ago. Position, stop loss is the lowest point at the current small bottom. As you can see on the weekly chart, Friday just hit a record high, which means there is no hindrance from above. This is a giant teacup that has accumulated for 3 years from January 2021 to January 2024! If the next 3-year cycle clean-up breakthrough is confirmed, it will continue to be added, and I will continue to ride now 🚴🏻
$CrowdStrike(CRWD.US$ It is the strongest cybersecurity stock I've observed so far (ZS and PAWN are also good). Also, from August to October, when the market was drastically adjusted in 2023, it continued to set higher highs and higher lows. In November, it was quickly added after breaking through a small market for 3-4 weeks. The climax flag at the beginning of December was added again. The trading volume corresponded to healthy and strong price behavior. The stop loss was at the lowest point of the day. Stocks that were unwilling to pull back in the early stages were the most obvious strong characteristic! Judging from the weekly chart, the longest consolidation period is from May to September 2023, about 14 weeks. The week the breakthrough started was a huge trading volume, which led to a rapid rise for nearly 4 months. This week it rose by more than 14%, which is also a large trading volume! Also, there is a potential giant teacup pattern (November 2021 to January 2024, 26 months!) , which means there may be new additions, a potential new chapter is about to open, keep riding 🚴🏻
$Meta Platforms(META.US$ It is one of the few giant companies that can meet my expected earnings name. The higher high point follows the higher low. Its graph maintained a considerable upward rate on a stable basis. It was added after the small teacup broke through this Wednesday, and the stop loss was set at the bottom of this small teacup. This time, 10MA did not touch 21MA (the previous two adjustments: 10MA passed 21MA and then rose, then the 10MA passed 21MA without touching 50MA and then rising). The moving average has begun to expand, and the magnitude of the price fluctuation gradually shrinks, thus creating advantageous trading opportunities. Looking at the weekly chart, the increase in the last 4 weeks has broken away from the previous 21-week consolidation zone, and is about to form a period of more than 28 months from September 2021 to January 2024? February? March?) A potentially giant teacup! There are new potential addition opportunities in the future, keep riding for now 🚴🏻
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US$It is one of the biggest star stocks. The fluctuation was slightly larger than META. It recently completed a six-month VCP pattern breakthrough, and breaking through the previous period gave no chance of a pullback (up more than 11% this week)! It was added immediately after the breakout this Monday, and the stop loss was at the low point of the previous day. The three important moving averages are almost exactly the same as META, which means the beginning of expansion. Looking at the weekly chart, the biggest consolidation range is 20 weeks. It just broke through this week. The starting point is at 10MA, and the weekly chart's moving average expansion has just begun. Going back to the daily chart, we look at the trading volume for the 5 days after the breakthrough, which was clearly healthy and strong. Will continue to wait for new potential addition opportunities. I don't think my position on NVDA is enough at the moment; I can just keep riding for now 🚴🏻
Summary: As can be seen from the post-breakthrough trend of CRWD, SMCI, and NVDA, the really strong stocks were not given a chance to pull back in the early days after the breakout. The big boys accumulated enough chips as early as that 5-6 month volatile consolidation period. Looking at it the other way around, if it gave you a chance to quickly add an easy pullback, then you need to carefully consider it; maybe it's not as strong as you think.
Also, if you like to refer to the RSI indicator, then you'll miss almost all of the super strong stocks, because most of the RSI is over 70 in the trading days before they burst upward, which will increase your resistance to pressing the buy order, so I never use the RSI indicator or the MACD indicator. All of these indicators are “second-hand goods” in my eyes, and their accuracy rate and response speed are far less fast and accurate than first-hand price behavior and trading volume.
Currently, the cash position is 32.2%. Maintain optimism and trade discipline, and look ahead.
“Price reactions and pullbacks can let you determine whether your stock is tennis or eggs.” -Mark Minervini
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Ondo : Do you usually keep an eye on trading days haha
sTone83 OP Ondo : The opening is 1-1.5 hours, and I hardly look at the middle, then I just look at where the closing is ~
Ondo sTone83 OP : Opening 1-1.5 What factors do you usually look at.
Sometimes I watch the market after the market, and some information I don't know comes up.
sTone83 OP Ondo : The volatile price range was basically determined within 1-1.5 hours of opening, and most purchases were made during this period. At the same time, I won't focus on too much information.
icezzz : Thanks for sharing. What do u think about tsla and mara? Been waiting for good entry price
sTone83 OP icezzz : None of these are obviously buy-in charts, and there's almost no advantage at the moment.
icezzz sTone83 OP : Thanks bro
MattSully : Thank you for sharing your excellent analysis bro
. good break outs - look really promising. ![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Hmmmm, any other potential breakouts on your watchlist?
sTone83 OP MattSully : There are currently no excellent settings; we need to continue to focus on following the 7 mentioned ones.