市场回顾+核心仓位分析（13/05-17/05 2024）
Last week's review 👉🏻Market Review + Core Position Analysis (06/05-10/05 2024)
"We cannot control the wind's direction, but we can adjust our sails, choose our attitude." - Rockefeller
Quick Market Review:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ On Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday, absorbing funds;
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ There was a difference on Monday, absorbing funds on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ Distributed on Monday, absorbing funds on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
NDX>SPX>DJI
All three major indexes hit new highs this week. Although there was no Follow-Through Day (FTD) during this recovery period, the new high prices indicate the market's stance. We can see that during this adjustment period, there was huge trading volume at the bottom, and the market easily recovered upwards with low trading volume. Sellers' strength is extremely weak, with almost negligible selling pressure;
The current market is short-term overbought, requiring a brief minor price adjustment and a slight cooling of market sentiment here, with risk levels at very low levels.
Weekly charts of NDX and SPX:
Unknowingly rising for 4 weeks in a row, the upward trend has returned to a healthy level. Although the SPX is approaching the upper boundary of the upward trendline again, it is not necessary to over-worry due to the recent market recovery, but focus on individual stock setups and performance.
In terms of market sentiment:
AAII remains at a relatively optimistic level after facing a major event, similar to last week.
The Fear & Greed Index is rapidly returning to the greedy range, and a brief cooling off period afterwards would be very healthy.
Core holdings:
$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ After reaching a new high at the close on Wednesday, choose to close out short positions; adjustments in the upward trend, with a short selling range of about 5%. In summary, one word— mediocrity (tasteless to eat, regrettable to discard) 🤭
$iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ Also chose to close out positions after the close on Wednesday, generously admitting judgment errors, overly focused on Follow Through Day (FTD) and low trading volume.
$Royal Caribbean (RCL.US)$ (RS Rating:92) Bought after the breakthrough on Thursday, experiencing a VCP structure of 3 shrinking waves, tightly maintaining prices above the 10MA. Currently back in a small oscillation range after the breakthrough, maintain stop-loss, continue to observe; Position proportion: 8.31%, relative account risk: 0.3%.
$Netflix (NFLX.US)$ (RS Rating:89) Bought after breaking through the cheat-dense transaction zone on Friday, currently back within the range, maintain the unchanged stop-loss, continue to observe; Position proportion: 7.58%, relative account risk: 0.3%.
$DraftKings (DKNG.US)$ After breaking through the cheat-intensive area on Wednesday and buying, it is now close to the stop-loss, maintaining the stop-loss line to unify the long-term consistent stop-loss amount; current position ratio: 7.55%, relative to account risk 0.3%.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ After breaking through the cheat-intensive area on the right side on Wednesday (also known as 2T VCP), bought, currently back near the breakout line, next week's earnings report is probably not bad (some information can be obtained from TSM's monthly sales report) , maintain the stop loss unchanged; current position ratio: 6.77%, relative account risk: 0.3%.
$ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (BOIL.US)$ Using a core position of 3%, reducing core position risk by repeatedly scalping at the bottom with an additional position of 1-2%; $Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures(JAN5) (NGmain.US)$ The chart is relatively easy to read, similar to the last operation $ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD.US)$ Using the same principle: clear trading volume guidance in special positions. The current position ratio is 5.71%, completed from the original 3% position (supporting the account position for nearly a month and a half 😅).
$TransMedics (TMDX.US)$ (RS rating: 97) is a name I have been following, almost doubling in price since the last emergency sale.
It is one of the two stocks I mistakenly sold in April (the other is GOOG), try not to sell too early when a strong stock has just recovered above the 30MA on the weekly chart;
The past is the past, traders should look forward.
On Wednesday, after it tested the 10-day moving average on the daily chart for the first time, I tried to buy, set a stop loss at the contact point, and currently it is still healthy; position ratio: 5.39%, relative account risk 0.3%.
$Pegasystems (PEGA.US)$ (RS Rating: 79) On Wednesday, I bought after breaking through the dense cheating zone on the right side, and currently still near the breakout line, it needs some time to prove itself, keep the stop loss unchanged; current position ratio: 3.68%, relative account risk 0.3% (when using the same account risk, if the stop loss space is large, the position will be relatively smaller).
Current cash proportion: 51.29%
The 6 newly established positions currently occupy around 1.8% of the account risk, as the market develops, it will become clear which way is viable and which is not, allowing for completely objective and simple operations.
Currently, there are still some important names completing the right side setup, patiently waiting for the entry points to appear 🚴🏻
"I set a stop loss point for every trade I make. This is a pre-determined point where I will stop the loss and then reassess. I know this point before trading. Without it, no trade can be completed. My success in the stock market is almost entirely attributed to the stop loss." -Mark Minervini
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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