Market Review+Core Position Analysis (13/05-17/05 2024)
Last week in review 👉🏻Market Review+Core Position Analysis (06/05-10/05 2024)
“We can't influence the direction of the wind, but we can adjust our sails and choose our attitude.” - Rockefeller
A quick review of the market:
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ Attracts funds on Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays;
$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ Monday differences, Tuesday and Wednesday attracted funds;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ It is distributed on Monday and draws funds on Tuesday and Wednesday.
NDX > SPX > DJI
The three major indices all hit new highs this week. Although there was no follow-up date (FTD) during this recovery period, the new price highs indicate the market's position. We can see that the market had huge trading volume at the bottom of the adjustment period, and it was easy to recover upward with low trading volume along the way. Seller strength was extremely weak, and the selling pressure was almost negligible;
Currently, the market is overbought for a short period of time, and prices need to be adjusted slightly for a short time to cool down market sentiment. The risk level is at a very low level.
NDX and SPX weekly charts:
Unwittingly, it continued to rise for 4 weeks, and the upward trend returned to a healthy level. Although SPX is close to the edge of the upward trend line, since the market has just recovered, there is no need to be too entangled and focus on individual stock settings and performance.
In terms of market sentiment:
AAII remained at the same level of optimism as last week after facing major events;
The Fear & Greed Index has now quickly returned to the greed range, and it is very healthy for a short cooldown to follow.
Core holdings:
$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ After closing at a record high on Wednesday, they chose to close their short positions; the adjustment in the upward trend can be shorted by about 5%, summed up in one word — poor taste (tasteless to eat, a pity to throw away) 🤭
$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US$ Also choosing to close the position after closing on Wednesday, he generously admitted that he made a mistake in judgment and was too entangled with the follow-up date (FTD) and low trading volume.
$Royal Caribbean(RCL.US$ (RS Rating: 92) Purchased after breaking through on Thursday and experienced a 3-wave contraction VCP structure. The price remained closely above 10MA. Currently, after the breakthrough, it has returned to a small fluctuation range, maintained a stop loss, and continued observation; position ratio: 8.31%, relative account risk: 0.3%.
$Netflix(NFLX.US$ (RS Rating: 89) Bought after breaking through the fraudulent trading zone on Friday. It has now returned to the range, keeping the stop loss unchanged, and continuing to observe; position ratio: 7.58%, relative account risk: 0.3%.
$DraftKings(DKNG.US$ (RS Rating: 91) Purchased after breaking through the fraud-intensive area on Wednesday. It has now quickly hit a stop loss and maintained a stop loss line to unify the long-term consistent stop loss limit; current position ratio: 7.55%, compared to the account risk.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ (RS Rating: 98) Bought after breaking through the fraudulent trading zone on the right (also seen as 2T VCP) on Wednesday. It is now close to the breakout line. Next week's earnings are likely to be poor (some information can be obtained from TSM's monthly sales report), leaving the stop loss unchanged; current position ratio: 6.77%, relative account risk: 0.3%
$ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas(BOIL.US$ 3% of the core position was used, and the risk of the core position was reduced by repeatedly cutting the scalp at the bottom through an additional 1-2% position; $Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures(SEP4)(NGmain.US$ The chart is relatively easy to interpret, and the last operation $ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas(KOLD.US$ Using the same principle: the trading volume guidelines for special positions are obvious. Current position ratio: 5.71%, which is completed by 3% of the original positions (supporting account positions for nearly a month and a half 😅).
$TransMedics(TMDX.US$ (RS rating: 97) is the name I have always followed. Since the last time it was sold in an emergency situation, the price has almost doubled;
It is one of the two stocks I missold in April (the other is GOOG). When a strong stock has just recovered from the weekly 30MA, try not to sell it too early;
The past is over; traders need to look ahead.
On Wednesday, it tried to buy after testing the daily chart 10MA for the first time, setting a stop loss at the point of contact, and is still healthy; position ratio: 5.39%, relative to account risk 0.3%.
$Pegasystems(PEGA.US$ (RS Rating: 79) Bought after breaking through the fraudulent trading zone on the right side on Wednesday. Currently, it is still near the breakout line. It will take some time to prove itself and keep the stop loss unchanged; current position ratio: 3.68%, compared to account risk 0.3% (when using the same account risk, the position will be relatively small if there is a large stop-loss space).
Current cash ratio: 51.29%
Currently, the 6 newly established positions account for a total of about 1.8% of account risk. As the market evolves forward, you will know which ones work and which don't, and can be operated completely objectively and simply;
Currently, some important names are being set up on the right, so be patient and wait for the entry point to appear 🚴🏻
“I set a stop-loss point for every trade I make. This is a pre-determined point where I would stop my loss and then re-evaluate it. I knew this before I traded. No transaction can be completed without it. My success in the stock market is almost entirely due to stop losses.” -Mark Minervini
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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