sTone83 wrote a post · Apr 28, 2024 14:48

Market review + Core position analysis (22/04-26/04 2024)

Review of last week 👉🏻Market Review + Core Position Analysis (15/04-19/04 1024)

"To win in an environment where everyone has the same goal, you must do what most investors are consciously unwilling or unconsciously unable to do." - Mark Minervini

Market review + Core position analysis (22/04-26/04 2024)

Quick review of the market this week:

$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Distribute on Wednesday, absorb on Thursday;

$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Diverge on Wednesday, absorb on Thursday;

$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ Divergence on Wednesday and Thursday.

NDX>SPX>DJI

SPX failed to trigger a Follow-up Day (FTD) on Friday, with the entire market approaching a dense volume area above. Currently, one leg has been completed. I like to imagine the period of market adjustment as a time to refuel a car, where the volume is the required gasoline. Some fuel has been added, but it is not enough to complete the next trend. If forced to drive, the probability of accidents along the way is very high. I will continue to patiently wait for it to refuel and be fully prepared.

Weekly charts of NDX and SPX:

The dense earnings week supported this week's trading volume, and next week's earnings will also be dense, so the volume will not be low. Continue to watch the cards for free, strive to extract more information from the cards given by the market, and help establish clear action signals in advance.

In terms of market sentiment:

The Fear & Greed Index has rebounded slightly, initially digesting some panic emotions;

The AAII Bull-Bear Ratio has reached its recent low, and the neutral percentage has once again come to its recent high. Continue to observe.

Core holdings:

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Attempted short sell trades this week.

Originally considering that after the price fell below the area between the two white lines following the financial report, the chips on the top would provide some downward momentum. The reality is that the buying power has been very strong these two days, coupled with the excessively high short sell ratio forming a counterforce. The next day, it broke through the liquidation line, closing the position at a loss of nearly $8 per share, using about 5% of the position.

This trade may need to wait for more favorable signals, which reinforces the importance of patience for me 🚴🏻

$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$Currently holding the short sell position, missed the first liquidation point, fortunately, apart from a small amount of short sell interest, QQQ itself has no other wear and tear. Will wait for the appropriate opportunity to liquidate within the next two weeks, with the original stop-loss unchanged.

Current cash ratio: 86.44%

The holiday has ended at the moment, and neither the market nor individual stocks have presented opportunities that I cannot refuse. I will maintain patience, enter the serious chart reading mode, and will confirm clear conditions in advance for every future purchase. There is still a lot of work to be done 🚴🏻