Market Review + Position Analysis (03/06-07/06 2024)
Last week review👉🏻Market Review + Position Analysis (28/05-31/05 2024)
"If you listen to what others say instead of paying attention to what the stocks are telling you, you may be very confused." - Mark Minervini
Quick review of the market this week:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Sucking in money on Wednesday;
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Sucking in money on Wednesday;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ The funds will be raised on Wednesday and distributed on Friday.
NDX>SPX>DJI.
As analyzed last week, it won't be long before the market reaches a new high. However, in terms of stocks, except for a few strong names, most are in a volatile state. Many stocks have been reassessed over the weekend, and some names have been put on the potential cut/clear list, while some new names have entered the watch list.
Weekly charts of NDX and SPX:
The medium to long-term upward trend is still in the early to middle stage, and there are currently no signs of any potential issues.
In terms of market sentiment:
The proportion of AAII bearishness suddenly reached a recent high on Wednesday. The last similar emotional leap was on April 17th.
The Fear & Greed Index is still below 50, indicating that the real uptrend has not yet started and many potential opportunities have not yet surfaced. Need to carefully search for them.
Current holdings, P/L, and proportions:
$Appfolio (APPF.US)$ Tested the previous gap position multiple times and just bought in. Need to give it some time to provide feedback.
$Royal Caribbean (RCL.US)$ Current behavior is still considered normal, continue riding.
$Tradr 1.5X Short NVDA Daily ETF (NVDS.US)$ If there is no shaken out, there is the potential for a good short-term return. If there is a shaken out, there will be no loss.
$Warrior Met Coal (HCC.US)$ On Tuesday, the entire coking coal industry was collectively sold off due to news, and HCC, as the leader of the industry, was no exception. It gradually recovered slightly over the next three days, let's see if it can cool down next week.
$Netflix (NFLX.US)$ Current behavior is still considered normal, with the 30-day moving average crossing above the 50-day moving average.
$Vita Coco (COCO.US)$ After the breakthrough, the shrinking volume rested for 5 days, which is considered normal behavior at the moment, and the price is still above the 10-day moving average.
$Signet Jewelers (SIG.US)$ After the VCP broke out, it created a higher high, then rested for 4 days with low trading volume, which is considered normal behavior and is potentially in a new handle position on a larger chart.
$Robinhood (HOOD.US)$ Still above the gap, the strength shown by the previous trading volume was very strong. If not sold, it could potentially result in high returns.
$TransMedics (TMDX.US)$ One of the strongest names in the current market, but still somewhat overextended, with the 50-day moving average still a long way to catch up.
$Spotify Technology (SPOT.US)$ After breaking through this week, it returned to near the breakout line, with increased volume on Friday and also raised the stop-loss line. If there are no signs of strengthening next week, consider reducing the position.
$Elanco Animal Health (ELAN.US)$ The action after the climax flag breakout is still good, with no sign of any distribution day yet. Waiting for the 30-day and 50-day moving averages to catch up, and then continue riding.
$Western Digital (WDC.US)$ No dangerous signals have been seen in the daily candle behavior yet, but it has been held for too long. If there is still no breakthrough next week, consider reducing the position.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ It has been quiet above the 50-day moving average, and the moving averages are starting to converge. A catalyst will be needed in the future to trigger action, and if the action is normal, there may be new entry points in the future.
$Crocs (CROX.US)$ After breaking through (RS 92), it did a deep squat and now the price is maintained near the breakthrough line. The price with the highest trading volume on Thursday was rising and the 50-day moving average has not caught up with the stop loss line. I will observe it for a longer time.
$ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD.US)$ Already accustomed to the large fluctuations of natural gas, the futures market has returned to the downward trendline. Let's see what actions will be taken next week. Profit protections have already been made earlier, and trading will continue following the original rules to let it run.
Current cash proportion: 9.2%
"Some people look at charts, while others understand the science and art of measuring supply and demand patterns. In other words, knowing what is normal and what is abnormal under specific conditions (that's all you need to know). When you learn to do this, you will be empowered and have a long and prosperous career in stock speculation." Mark Minervini
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