Market review + position analysis (03/09-06/09 2024)
Review of last week 👉🏻Market review + position analysis (08/26-08/30 2024)
Market behavior this week:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Distributed on Tuesday and Friday;
$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ Tuesday and Thursday distribution.
rut> spx> ndx
This week, the market is returning to a distribution rhythm. It is worth noting that NDX has had 7 distribution days in the past three weeks, while SPX has had 6 distribution days. Last Friday's only accumulation day obviously failed to change the trend, and many strong stocks are struggling in the headwind, with personal accounts gradually withdrawing cash.
Weekly charts:
NDX has slightly broken through the upward trendline since January 2023 for the second time in the short term, and has also slightly fallen below the 30MA; SPX is still within the upward channel, currently near the 20MA; RUT is relatively better, with two weeks of shrinking volume decline, and the large cycle is maintaining the breakthrough of the first stage structure pretty well.
Market breadth records and weekly notes:
Market breadth turned red on Friday, last time was on August 5th.
The weekly notes have been helpful to me and it's worth continuing this habit. For myself, it's concise and clear.
Market sentiment:
The AAII bear ratio is still low, indicating continued market sentiment behavior; the panic index has returned to the panic range.
Current positions:
FRPT, GEV, ERJ, please refer to yesterday's "Weekly Trading Summary".
$MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ Currently, one of the issues with hold positions may not be able to return to the previous consolidation platform in the short term. Currently, the 50MA is oversold in the short term, and there may be a rebound in the short term, but don't expect too much from the rebound.
$Ensign (ENSG.US)$ The trading volume on Friday was a bit too high, no need to find the reason, just maintain the stop loss and 20MA rules.
$Ferrari (RACE.US)$ Arrived at the testing stage of the 20MA, currently still holding 2/3 of the positions, simply maintain the 20MA rules.
$SharkNinja (SN.US)$ Currently no abnormal behavior, maintain the rule riding.
$ResMed (RMD.US)$ Currently constructing another new short climax flag, but currently no plan to continue adding, increasing the stop loss, maintain the rules.
$ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ.US)$ and $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ Stick to the original plan, based on whether SPX can hold near August 12th.
$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ Another issue with holding positions, a definite warning, emphasizing the importance of rules.
Currently, cash accounts for 40.76% of the total.
Recently I carefully examined my hold positions and found that the combined unrealized account losses caused by the short-term hold positions in MARA and SMCI have exceeded 10% of the total account.
What does 10% of the total account mean? For an account with a base of 140%, it means a drawdown of 14%; on the other hand, it can provide 33 opportunities for trading with a risk of 0.3%.
Don't think that violating the rules once or twice is not a big deal. Every time you hope that the price will recover, which is the most dangerous time, even if there is only one time out of 10-20 times that it won't recover, the trauma it brings is enormous.
Currently, it is necessary to firmly establish a defense line and gradually refine the offensive strategy by learning from one's own trades; never lose confidence, especially in a downturn period, and keep moving forward 🚴🏻
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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