Market Review and Position Analysis (05/08-09/08 2024)
Last Week Review 👉🏻Market Review + Position Analysis (29/07-02/08 2024)
Quick review of the market this week:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ The trading volume gradually decreased day by day throughout this week;
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Distributed on Monday;
$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ Distributed on Monday and Wednesday;
NDX > SPX > RUT.
Currently, what can be seen is a large number of buyers entering the market after a sharp drop on Monday, and the candlestick pattern and trading volume clearly describe this behavior. Subsequent trading volume has decreased day by day, and the price has slowly rebounded, indicating that a significant amount of supply has been digested. There are too many possibilities for what may happen next, so perhaps the best strategy here is to simplify and wait for confirmation of recent days (FTD) or the index breaking through the moving average before entering the market with full force for a long position.
Weekly charts:
The charts here provide a clearer picture. NDX returned to within the ascending trendlines and above the 30MA after the plunge, while SPX almost touched the lower edge of the ascending trendlines and then returned above the 30MA and 20MA. RUT retested the previous major base, to see if there is any tennis behavior here. Overall, it's not very optimistic at the moment, but it's not a time to be pessimistic either.
Breadth records:
There has been a turnaround since last Friday, with 5 consecutive up days this week. Let's see if it will recover, and how long it will take to recover.
Market sentiment:
AAII's pre-market reading on Thursday showed a 12% increase in bearish sentiment compared to the previous week. Take a look at the market behavior on Thursday and Friday, and you will see that the counter-sentiment market behavior has been operating almost continuously.
The Fear & Greed Index hit a new low for the year, and the only good news is that the VIX has returned to neutral.
Current holdings profit and loss ratio:
Among them $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ (RS 97) $Viking Therapeutics (VKTX.US)$ (RS 99) $Rocket (RKT.US)$ (RS 97) was mentioned in yesterday's Weekly Trading Summary; the other 5 names are currently problem positions for me.
$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ (RS 60) is the heaviest problem position left after violating trading rules, and I don't expect it to be fixed quickly.
$MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ (RS 80) My own "toy" has recently been played to the point of malfunction, and it is also a problem position. The good news is that most of the sharp drop on Friday has been recovered, but it will take some time to fix this problem position.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ (RS 52) is currently classified as a problematic position, and the short-term price is likely to fluctuate between 175-245. The early research and the 10MA effect related to it are still valid.
$ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ.US)$ (RS 87) Ignoring the trading discipline left behind the problematic position, it does not seem to be repaired quickly.
$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ (RS 86) 'Your stop loss price is often the best price you can sell.' Look at this big drop in price (relative to historical highs or even knee drops), and you will know what I'm talking about. In the future, when you hesitate to stop the loss, look at this chart more. The current position is not large, and I plan to hang up for a long time as a negative teaching material mentioned every week 😅.
Current cash ratio: 29.47%
In recent weeks, I have lost my biggest advantage: stop loss discipline. The market doesn't care who you are or what you want. Once you have a lucky mentality, there will be a second time, a third time... Nth time;
The market recovered most of the previous 7 months' accumulated profits in just 4 days...
Wipe the wounds, keep confidence, and slowly regain the trading rhythm I have always pursued 🚴🏻.
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