NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 109.670 TSLA
Tesla
-- 263.550 CRWV
CoreWeave
-- 40.000 PLTR
Palantir
-- 85.850 GOOGL
Alphabet-A
-- 154.330 
Market review + position analysis (08/07-12/07 2024)
Last week's review👉🏻Market review + position analysis (01/07-05/07 2024)
A major event occurred today (Sunday), with former 🇺🇸 President Trump being shot at by a sniper, narrowly avoiding a fatal outcome. Let's see how the capital markets interpret the impact of this event next week👇
Quick review of the market this week:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Accumulation on Monday, divergence on Tuesday, distribution on Thursday;
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Divergence on Monday and Tuesday, distribution on Thursday;
$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ The absorption of funds occurred on Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
RUT > SPX > NDX.
On Thursday, there was a significant transfer of funds, which resulted in fund managers rapidly deleveraging large-cap stocks and quickly establishing positions in small and medium-cap stocks. The market breadth experienced a major inflection point on Thursday and Friday. If this market condition can continue and form a higher consolidation range for RUT during the autumn market consolidation (September-October), it will open a golden trading window for traders.
Weekly charts:
NDX and SPX can accept a small downward adjustment in the future, while a sideways trend will be a stronger symbol. RUT has already broken free from a consolidation range of over 2 years. Next, it needs to sustain the current upward momentum to confirm the effectiveness of the market.
Market sentiment:
Before the market opened on Thursday, the AAII Bull Ratio broke recent high levels, while the Bear Ratio reached its lowest proportion (based on last week's 26%) since the week of June 19. Similar to that week, the market reacted again on Thursday, and this was based on the positive CPI data. This shows that the referential value of AAII data has a high correlation with short-term market impact.
The Fear & Greed Index has gradually started to rise as the market breadth experienced a major turning point, but it is still far from the state of market over-excitement.
Current position, profit and loss, as well as proportion:
Among them: $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ (RS 80) $Carvana (CVNA.US)$ (RS 99) $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ (RS 99) $Rocket (RKT.US)$ (RS 92) $First Solar (FSLR.US)$ (RS 92) $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ (RS 95) $Catalyst Pharmaceuticals (CPRX.US)$ (RS 80) $Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US)$ (RS 99) has been mentioned in yesterday's Weekly Trade Summary.
$Palantir (PLTR.US)$ (RS 95) has formed a new price range this week. The sell-off on Thursday wasn't particularly bad based on the closing price. Currently, the ATR is less than 5 times, and the extension is not particularly severe. The 'pendulum effect' is still incomplete. We will continue to observe next week.
$Netflix (NFLX.US)$ (RS 91) faced sell-off on Thursday and the price is currently near the 50MA. The financial report will be released next Thursday and we have already missed the opportunity to reduce positions again. Currently, there is a cushion of $20-30. Given the current situation, as it is a large cap stock, we have to hold it through the financial report and keep the stop loss unchanged.
$TG Therapeutics (TGTX.US)$ (RS 97) ended the continuous 8-day rally on Friday. The good thing is that the trading volume was not high. In a larger cycle, it is in the early stage. Give it a little more space and time to perform, and also seize the opportunity to lock in some profits.
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ (RS 87) also faced sell-off on Thursday, but the price is still stable above the VCP breakout point. It is one of the members of the BIG7 with relatively stable volatility. In unfavorable situations, it can be temporarily treated as a cash reserve. There is no plan to sell in the short term, so the stop loss remains unchanged.
$Royal Caribbean (RCL.US)$ (RS 95) is currently in a position of absolute advantage. The price is on the upper border of the upward channel. There may be a slight downward movement next week, but it is safe to continue to hold in the short term.
Current cash ratio: 3.24%
"Excellent retailers don't hold onto unsold items, hoping that this style will come back into fashion a year later. If he's smart, he will lower the price, take it off the shelf as soon as possible, and then look for something that everyone wants to buy to restock." - Mark Minervini
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