Market Review+Position Analysis (08/07-12/07 2024)
Last week in review 👉🏻Market Review+Position Analysis (01/07-05/07 2024)
A major incident occurred today (Sunday). Former 🇺🇸 President Trump was shot by a sniper. Almost GG. Let's see how the capital market interprets the impact of this incident next week 👇
A quick review of this week's markets:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Funding is attracted on Monday, disagreements on Tuesday, and distributed on Thursday;
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Disagreements on Monday and Tuesday, distributed on Thursday;
$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ We attract funds every week, three days a week, and four days.
RUT>SPX>NDX.
There was an obvious large-scale transfer of capital on Thursday. Judging from the results, fund managers quickly deleveraged large stocks and quickly established positions in small and medium-sized stocks at the same time. The market breadth reached a major inflection point on Thursday and Friday. If this market continues and RUT forms a higher consolidation range during the fall (September/October) market consolidation, it will open a gold trading window for traders.
Weekly chart:
NDX and SPX can accept a slight downward adjustment in the future, and sideways trading will be a stronger symbol; the RUT closing price has broken out of the consolidation range of more than 2 years, and now it is necessary to continue the current upward strength to prove the effectiveness of the start of the market.
Market sentiment:
Before the opening of the market on Thursday, the AAII bull-watching ratio broke through the recent highest ratio. At the same time, the bear-watching ratio reached a recent low (based on 26% last week). Like the week of June 19, the market once again reacted the same way on Thursday, and on the basis of favorable CPI data. It can be seen from this that the reference value of AAII data is highly correlated with the short-term impact.
The Fear & Greed Index has slowly begun to rise along with a major inflection point in the breadth of the market. Currently, the market is still far from being overexcited.
Current position profit and loss and ratio:
Among them: $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ (RS 80) $Carvana (CVNA.US)$ (RS 99) $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ (RS 99) $Rocket (RKT.US)$ (RS 92) $First Solar (FSLR.US)$ (RS 92) $Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$ (RS 95) $Catalyst Pharmaceuticals (CPRX.US)$ (RS 80) $Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US)$ (RS 99) was already mentioned in yesterday's “Deal of the Week Roundup”.
$Palantir (PLTR.US)$ (RS 95) A new price range was formed this week. Thursday's sell-off was not particularly bad. Currently, ATR is less than 5 times, and the extension is not particularly serious. At the same time, the “pendulum effect” has not been completed. We will continue to observe next week.
$Netflix (NFLX.US)$ (RS 91) was sold off on Thursday. Currently, the price is around 50MA. The financial report for next Thursday has missed another cut and has a temporary cushion of 20-30 dollars; as for the current situation, given that he is a large-cap stock, he has to carry it through the earnings report, and the stop loss remains the same.
$TG Therapeutics (TGTX.US)$ (RS 97) ended 8 days of continuous gains on Friday. The good side is that the trading volume is not large. In the larger cycle, it is in a position where it has just started, giving him more space and time to use it, while also looking for an opportunity to lock in some profit.
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ (RS 87) was also sold off on Thursday. Currently, the price is still stable above the VCP breaking through the critical point. As a member of BIG7, the volatility is relatively stable. The unfavorable situation can be temporarily used as a cash reserve. There are no short-term sales plans, and the stop loss remains unchanged.
$Royal Caribbean (RCL.US)$ (RS 95) is currently holding an absolute advantage, and the price is at the top of the upward channel. It may decline slightly next week, so you can continue to ride safely in the short term.
Current share of cash: 3.24%
“Good retailers don't keep slow-selling products, and I hope this style will be back in vogue after a year. If he's smart, he'll cut the price, take it off the shelves as soon as possible, and find something everyone wants to buy back on the shelves.” -Mark Minervini
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