Market Review + Position Analysis (10/06-14/06 2024)
Last week review👉🏻Market Review + Position Analysis (03/06-07/06 2024)
"The most important discipline that I have developed over the years is to never let my opinions hinder the ability and willingness to make breakthroughs in sound setups. I always let stocks determine the flow of my capital, regardless of what my intuition says. Sometimes my intuition is right, sometimes it's wrong... but stocks are never wrong, because I am the passenger, the market is the engine. My strategy is what I follow, not my personal opinions. This requires discipline and willingness. Strive to achieve this!" -Mark Minervini
Quick review of the market this week:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Accumulate positions on Mondays and Wednesdays;
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Accumulate positions on Mondays and Wednesdays;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ Distribute on Tuesdays, divergence on Wednesdays.
NDX>SPX>DJI.
In the past two weeks, the market has been led by giant technology stocks and large chip stocks. Currently, these big players are somewhat stretched, and the overall market breadth has deteriorated. Short-term rotation is needed to maintain the healthy development of the market. Despite the appearance of the market climbing, the reality of stock trading is still struggling. Let's see how the market will develop in the latter half of this month. In terms of trading, focus more on the feedback from the stocks themselves.
Weekly charts of NDX and SPX:
短期有放慢脚步的需求，尤其是目前的3T+俱乐部成员（MSFT，AAPL，NVDA）；这种极端情况持续过久的话会引发市场的不良反应；中长期趋势目前保持不变。
Market sentiment:
AAII本周三看熊比例来到了近期最低（上周为近期最高），近几周AAII仍然在正常范围内波动。
Fear & Greed Index整体仍然在50之下整理，情绪上看，中长期市场的顶部远未到达。
Current holdings profit and loss ratio:
$Rocket (RKT.US)$ (RS 93) $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ （RS 91） $Shift4 Payments (FOUR.US)$ （RS 48） $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ (RS 18) $Coherent (COHR.US)$ (RS 96) $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ (RS 94) $Kaspi.kz (KSPI.US)$ (RS 90)
The names mentioned above were explained in yesterday's trade summary, so we will not repeat them here;
$Royal Caribbean (RCL.US)$ (RS 97) Due to the negative news, the cruise industry was suppressed on Friday. RCL is currently the leader in the cruise industry. Let's see how the price will react in the coming week, keeping the original stop loss unchanged.
$TransMedics (TMDX.US)$ (RS 98) Still in a resting phase, with very low trading volume on Thursday and Friday, keeping the original stop loss unchanged.
$Robinhood (HOOD.US)$ (RS 97) Incremental rise, decrease in volume. Currently maintaining a healthy pace, still confident in the trend of increasing trading volume all the way up, maintaining the stop loss unchanged.
$Crocs (CROX.US)$ (RS 95) The current price action is normal, maintain the stop loss unchanged.
$Western Digital (WDC.US)$ (RS 97) Currently has broken free from the previous congestion zone, price action is also clear and healthy, maintain the stop loss unchanged.
$Elanco Animal Health (ELAN.US)$ (RS 94) After the low volume long red candle on Wednesday, it cooled down on Thursday and Friday, maintain the stop loss unchanged.
Current cash ratio: 3.49%
"If you think of yourself as a winner, your behavior will be like that of a winner; if your behavior is like that of a winner, you are likely to do more of what winners do, thus changing your 'luck'" - Rockefeller
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