Market Review+Position Analysis (15/07-19/07 2024)

Last week in review 👉🏻Market Review+Position Analysis (08/07-12/07 2024)

“Keep an eye on your portfolio and be careful when you start experiencing unusual behavior.” -Mark Minervini

Market Review+Position Analysis (15/07-19/07 2024)

A quick review of this week's markets:

$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ distributed on Wednesday;

$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Raise funds on Tuesday and distribute on Wednesday;

$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ Attracting funds on Monday and Tuesday;

RUT>SPX>NDX.

On Monday and Tuesday, the market overheated response to Trump's assassination last weekend, and then drastically revised over the next three days; judging from the trading volume for the next three days, NDX and SPX were both large trading volumes, while RUT was relatively small. The rotation was further confirmed here; BTC-related, biotech, housing construction, finance and other fields gradually showed strength, and money continued to work in an orderly manner during the summer.

Weekly chart:

NDX has been corrected to around the 10-week line, and SPX is back below the channel pressure line, all with large trading volumes and incremental volumes; although the RUT is not looking good, given the excessive crazy gains of the previous few days and is in the early stages of breaking through after two years of consolidation, there is no need to worry too much about this candle pattern.

Personal breadth records:

The trend of healthy breadth is still very good, and will continue to be recorded in the future.

Market sentiment:

AAII's bull-watching percentage on Wednesday reached the second highest in nearly 1 year. As a matter of course, the market continued the distribution rhythm on Wednesday and continued until Friday. I'm curious what kind of reading it will be next week 🤔

The decline in the Fear & Greed Index this week was mainly due to VIX's extreme panic, and overall it returned to the neutral range.

Current position profit and loss and ratio:

Among them: $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ (RS 88) $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ (RS 96) $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ (RS 97) $TG Therapeutics (TGTX.US)$ (RS 97) $Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$ (RS 93) was already mentioned in yesterday's “Weekly Deal Summary”.

$Carvana (CVNA.US)$ (RS 99) This week's performance is slightly weak, but there are currently no obvious signs of a change in trend. The stop loss continues to remain unchanged. If there are obvious signs of deterioration, quick action is needed.

$Rocket (RKT.US)$ (RS 93) Currently, it remains at a distance above the breakout point. The overall trading volume that fell for the next three days was lower than during the upward period. This is a normal reaction, and we will continue to observe next week.

$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ (RS 98) The stop-loss line was already broken through before the Wednesday market. In view of the sad experience of being shaken out too many times in the past year and a half 😅 (still the most profitable stock in my account since the beginning), I cancelled the market price stop-loss order set before the market and decided to change the way it was handled this time; the last three days were still operating within the fluctuation range, and the price did not drop further during the maximum trading volume on Friday. We need to see how VIX's price and trading volume reacted after cooling down. The pressure on the position was acceptable.

$Catalyst Pharmaceuticals (CPRX.US)$ (RS 80) Price behavior is currently normal. The trading volume gradually shrinks slightly during sideways trading in the next few days. The price is still within the large cycle base. You can patiently observe for a period of time, and the stop loss remains unchanged.

$Netflix (NFLX.US)$ (RS 90) Earnings were tepid. It was sold off in the market on Friday. Currently, the only way to handle it is to keep the stop loss unchanged. Observe its performance during the subsequent VIX cooldown period, and it is likely that it will break down within two weeks.