Market Review+Position Analysis (17/06-21/06 2024)
Last week in review 👉🏻Market Review+Position Analysis (10/06-14/06 2024)
“Trading decisions are made by people; they are emotional, imperfect, or even illogical. Pride, fear, greed, hope, ignorance, incompetence, overreaction, and other human errors of reasoning make all kinds of differences, which in turn bring opportunity.” -Mark Minervini
There are only 4 trading days this week. A quick review of market behavior:
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ Funding is attracted on Monday and distributed on Thursday and Friday;
$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ Funding is drawn on Monday and Tuesday, and distributed on Thursday and Friday;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ Monday-Thursday fund-raising; Friday was divided.
DJI > SPX > NDX
NDX and SPX began adjustments on Thursday and Friday. Corresponsively, QQQE and RSP showed signs of recovery on Thursday and Friday, and DJI and IWM ended their gains on Friday. If everything goes well, good market rotation will boost the extent of recent weakness. As long as the money in the market continues to work, don't give up looking for opportunities until the money proves that it's not working.
Weekly chart of NDX and SPX: The distance between NDX and the 10-week EMA needs to relax slightly due to excessive stretching; SPX is blocked after touching the top of the upward trend line, so a short-term break is necessary; the medium- to long-term upward trend remains unchanged.
Market sentiment:
After the bear ratio broke through recent lows again on Wednesday, the market responded on Thursday and Friday, as if it were an emotional harvester that has been in operation for over 100 years and has never stopped working... so it is worth paying attention to this data every Thursday before opening, which can be used as a factor to consider in trading decisions.
The Fear & Greed Index is still sluggish, dragged down by breadth.
Position profit and loss and ratio:
$Kaspi.kz(KSPI.US$ (RS 89) $Coherent(COHR.US$ (RS 97) $TG Therapeutics(TGTX.US$ (RS 87) $TransMedics(TMDX.US$ (RS 98) $Marathon Digital(MARA.US$ (91)
👆 The above was mentioned in yesterday's Deal of the Week.
$Palantir(PLTR.US$ (RS 94) The bad side is that there was sales news on Thursday and Friday. The good side is that there was no accumulation of distribution; the cuts were considered at 26.3 on Thursday, but serious thought and saw that it had experienced a three-legged bottom treatment before, and is still in the early stages of recovery, so I abandoned the idea of cuts, accepted its short-term shock, maintained stop loss and stickiness to it, and patiently waited for it to complete the “pendulum effect” in the short to medium term.
$Shift4 Payments(FOUR.US$ (RS 75) Good response on Thursday and Friday, keep watching next week.
$Royal Caribbean(RCL.US$ (RS 93) After experiencing a sell-off in news last week, this week has cooled down well. There is not much backlog above, so be patient and wait for it to recover.
$Tesla(TSLA.US$ (RS 21) This week's actions were reasonable and healthy. After three days, another shrinking Maverick flag was formed, but there are no plans to increase chips in this price range. There is no need to hurry and be patient with it.
$Netflix(NFLX.US$ (RS 95) There are still more than 3 weeks until its July earnings report, and targeted adjustments will be made according to its actions.
$Robinhood(HOOD.US$ (RS 98) was knocked out of the game on Thursday, then bought back when it came back above the original stop loss. Recent volume and price behavior has shown strength; at present, this week's response strategy for many recent shocks has had some effect here.
$Crocs(CROX.US$ (RS 95) also experienced sales news on Thursday, but continued to be patient with this rubber shoe manufacturer, leaving the original stop loss unchanged.
$Western Digital(WDC.US$ (RS 96) has returned to the previous consolidation range. The 50MA has caught up and surpassed the original stop loss. Next, we will observe the price reaction around the most important 50MA.
$Elanco Animal Health(ELAN.US$ (RS 95) is currently still resting, trading volume is extremely low, 50MA has not caught up, and short-term cuts are being considered to reduce unnecessary risks.
Current cash share: 7.21%
“The effective market theory argues that the market reacts immediately and fully incorporates new information into the price. Experienced traders know that this view is wrong for a number of reasons.” -Mark Minervini
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