sTone83 wrote a post · Sep 1, 2024 15:31

Market review + position analysis (08/26-08/30 2024)

Last week's review 👉🏻Market review + holding positions analysis (19/08-23/08 2024)

Market behavior this week:

$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Distribute on Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday, absorb funds on Friday;

$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Distribute on Wednesday and Thursday, absorb funds on Friday;

$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ Distribute on Wednesday, absorb funds on Friday.

RUT > SPX > NDX

It is worth noting that NDX has had 5 distribution days in the past two weeks, while SPX has had 4 distribution days; based on this information, I had originally planned to open a short-term short hedge position if there was an excessive gap up on Friday, but the conditions were not met on Friday. All three indices completed an absorption of funds day, with SPX's trading volume being the most prominent.

Market review + position analysis (08/26-08/30 2024)

Weekly charts:

NDX and SPX remain above the 10-day moving average, still maintaining a neutral position, while RUT is close to completing a tennis behavior. The seasonal weakness in September and October can be used as a reference, but a flexible attitude towards various possibilities is necessary. The results of the market's daily movements should be the core reference benchmark.

Personal record of market breadth and weekly summary notes:

The breadth continues to stay in the green.

The notes clearly show consecutive distribution days and subtle changes in stock RS, providing concise records to make my thoughts clearer :)

Market sentiment:

AAII did not change much this week and still leans bullish. The market continued its counter-emotional behavior on Thursday, and the optimistic data on Thursday and Friday barely maintained the upward momentum from being disrupted.

The fear index has just returned to the greedy range.

Current positions:

For NVMI, CYBR, RACE, SN, and RMD, please refer to yesterday's "Weekly Trading Summary".

$Palantir (PLTR.US)$The transaction has basically completed two steps, leaving 3/5 of the original position to continue riding, increasing the stop loss, and using the 20-day moving average as protection.

$MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ Currently, one of the problems with holding positions is that there is a large amount of supply above, which makes it difficult for it to recover quickly in a short period of time. It needs both BTC and the market to be hot at the same time to have a chance. Please be patient and wait.

$Janux Therapeutics (JANX.US)$ So far, the first step has not been completed yet, and the recent trading volume has been relatively dull. Please continue to follow the rules and keep riding.

$Royal Caribbean (RCL.US)$ There will be distribution behavior on Friday, and at present, it is temporarily above the 10-day moving average. Please continue to ride based on simple rules.

$Ensign (ENSG.US)$ The first step has not been completed yet, and there is currently no abnormal behavior. Please continue to ride based on the rules.

$Samsara (IOT.US)$ The first step has not been completed yet, and the volume and price behavior is currently normal. Please continue to ride based on the rules.

$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ As long as SPX can hold up with the recent days (FTD), there is no need to exit.

$ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ.US)$ Same as above, as long as SPX follows the recent days, it is effective.

$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ Another issue with holding positions may take at least 2-3 quarters to recover, or may never recover, serving as a negative example of not cutting losses, used as a warning.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ The remaining last 1/3 of the position can continue to be held as long as the previous support level is not broken, if there is a next wave of upward trend, need to strictly bullish 10MA.

$Rocket (RKT.US)$ Two steps of trading have already been completed for it, leaving the last 1/3 position, which can be protected by 20MA in the final step.

Current cash ratio: 4.13%

*The experiences and views of top traders:

Michael Marcus

Introduction: A genius trader who often lost all his money from 1969 to 1973, was in a cycle of borrowing money and losing it. After 1973, he began to embark on a successful trading path. In August 1974, he joined a commodity company as a trader, and the company provided him with 0.03 million dollars as trading capital. After about ten years, the return on this fund was about 2500 times, expanding to 80 million dollars.

He believes that patience is one of the most important qualities in trading.

Viewpoint 1: The main reason why I keep losing money and losing everything is that I lack patience and ignore trading principles, and cannot wait for the overall situation to become clear before entering the market recklessly.

Viewpoint 2: The trading opportunities that meet the profit principle are becoming fewer and fewer today, so you must be patient and wait. Whenever the market trend is completely opposite to my prediction, I will say: I originally hoped to make a big profit in this market trend, but unexpectedly the market trend is not as expected, so I simply withdraw.

Viewpoint 3: You must hold onto the good cards in your hand and minimize the bad ones. If you cannot hold onto the good cards, then how can you make up for the losses caused by the bad ones? There are many decent traders who end up losing all the money they earned because they are unwilling to stop trading when they are losing money. When I am losing money, I will say to myself: You can't continue trading anymore, wait for a clearer market trend. And when you have good cards, you must have patience to hold onto them, otherwise you will definitely not be able to make up for the money lost from the bad cards.