Market Review + Position Analysis (29/07-02/08 2024)
"Even if you lose, the only thing you should do is lose with integrity." - Rockefeller
Last week's link 👉🏻Market Review + Position Analysis (22/07-26/07 2024)
Quick review of the market this week:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Distribute on Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday, accumulate on Wednesday.
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Distribute on Tuesday and Friday, accumulate on Wednesday.
$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ Accumulate on Tuesday and Wednesday, distribute on Thursday.
RUT > SPX > NDX.
SPX on Wednesday presented an imprecise resemblance to recent days ( <1.7%, and an excessively large proportion of gaps), leading to panic selling triggered by data on Thursday and Friday (unemployment rate, Sam rule, recession route, etc.), with a huge trading volume; NDX and SPX moved far below the 50MA after Friday's plunge, while RUT temporarily stopped above the 50MA; the weekend social circle is filled with extremely pessimistic emotions, with pros and cons, letting the future market provide its own answer.
Weekly charts:
NDX has reached a critical position: the 30-week moving average and the bottom of the upward trendline starting from January 2023.
SPX fell below the 10-week moving average.
RUT has also reached the 10-week moving average and the previous breakout point. It remains to be seen whether it's an egg or a tennis ball, and the market needs to answer this question.
Record market breadth:
There was a significant reversal on Friday, and if red readings gradually begin to appear next week, it will be a very unfavorable signal.
Market sentiment:
As of last Wednesday, the AAII Bull Ratio slightly increased and the Bear Ratio dropped significantly, which, coupled with pessimistic economic data, is not surprising in terms of the market's reaction.
The Fear & Greed Index has fallen below the previous low point. In addition to breadth, all branch readings are Fear/Extreme Fear, and the VIX has seen its largest relative volatility since the beginning of 2023.
Current holdings, P/L, and proportions:
Among them $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ (RS 50) $Rocket (RKT.US)$ (RS 96) $Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA.US)$ (RS 96) has been explained in yesterday's "Weekly Trading Summary".
$Palantir (PLTR.US)$ (RS 90) has currently fallen below the 50MA. After the financial report on Monday, the decision will be made whether to keep or liquidate the remaining 4/5 positions.
$MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ (RS 84) has currently dropped below the previous consolidation platform. Although it was liquidated on Friday, it was repurchased after careful consideration to see if there will be a chance for a rebound in the future.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ (RS 50) has currently dropped to the 50MA. Currently holding 2/3 of the remaining positions, the price is likely to continue running between 175-245 in the future.
$Catalyst Pharmaceuticals (CPRX.US)$ (RS 86) fell back to the original breakout point on Friday. Waiting to see if it's an egg or a tennis ball, the original purchase price is the stop loss price.
$Carvana (CVNA.US)$ I'm already very pleased with the performance on Thursday and Friday. Currently holding 2/3 of the original positions, the stop loss has been changed to the candle's low point from the day before the financial report.
$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ (RS 95) The trading disaster caused by the butterfly effect, next Tuesday's after-hours financial report, by then the short-term direction of the AI industry can be basically determined.
$ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ.US)$ (RS 88) I manually cancelled the stop loss, waiting to see if NDX will take action at a key position on the weekly chart.
$Tenet Healthcare (THC.US)$ (RS 98) Currently back near the breakthrough point, the stop loss is set at that breakthrough platform.
$TG Therapeutics (TGTX.US)$ (RS 94) The price has returned to the 50MA, currently still holding 4/5 of the original position, with a stop loss slightly higher than the purchase price.
Currently the cash ratio is 0.19%.
Lincoln's life wrote a great truth: unless you give up, you will not be defeated.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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