Market where opinions are drastically divided (talk with a serious mentor)
Everyone is exchanging opinions with each other, and I'm watching comments while feeling that they are facing investment very enthusiastically, and I think there are data and influencers that are based on each other, and there are also many influencers I refer to, but recently there have been a lot of statements from both extremes, and I feel that explanations are too scarce in spite of the extreme to be helpful. For the most part, the reason is a major decline in employment statistics, a rise in the unemployment rate, etc. There are also people who say it is promised that the economy will fall into recession, and from my point of view, there was no single month factor where employment statistics declined so much... and now there is also a trend where people with high salaries have been thinned out and are hiring a lot of part-time workers, and there is also a trend where companies are focusing on cost reduction in order to successfully maximize profits, leading to that, it is true that the unemployment rate is on an upward trend, and it is true that the unemployment rate is on an upward trend However, if it is said that the recession will be clarified, I think it is still early to make a decision. Mr. Sam, who made it, is also at a level where one must be wary of according to the Saam Rules, but statements have also been made that it is not yet possible to determine whether the United States will fall into a serious economic recession, and although a sharp rise in the unemployment rate has also been seen, it may also mean that there was nothing to worry about yet depending on the data from next month onwards, so I personally need to keep a close eye on economic indicators and various As far as I look at indicator movements, there is no data showing a clear economic recession, and if it falls at the current level, I think there is still a higher probability that an adjustment is possible, and I'm in a phase where I look at stock price movements, economic data, and corporate financial results that will be shown in the future to determine whether my outlook is correct, do you have enough information to be convinced of the recession?
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京のおいちゃん : It really is
ジョモりん OP 京のおいちゃん : I haven't talked for a day, Oi-chan, it's been a long time since I didn't feel bad
京のおいちゃん ジョモりん OP : I can stay calm from time to time
codeOZ(家長) : Even in a recession, it's good if it's a soft landing. The problem
The current Federal Reserve, which is leading the way, took a back seat when interest rates were raised, and the market is unable to fully trust Mr. Powell. It is a black swan because the majority of people are unable to make normal decisions in a stressed state.
ジョモりん OP codeOZ(家長) : That opinion has also been heard a lot, but I just think that judgment is quick based on my own data, and I'm not sure whether actual data will go in that direction in the future, so I talked about it; I fully understand that stock prices have foresight, but I'm looking at it with a feeling that it's a bit too unnatural...
ジョモりん OP 京のおいちゃん : understand lol lol
京のおいちゃん : It's important to think for yourself. That's real learning. Even if it's a mistake or failure, it's an energy to move forward
ジョモりん OP 京のおいちゃん : Oicha~~~!!
京のおいちゃん ジョモりん OP : Why !
日々勉強 : Excuse me for the first comedy.
I honestly don't know, but maybe there will be a recession around 6:4
Anyway, be careful, but as a matter of fact, VIX has also gone up and stock prices are falling.
Because options are getting cheaper
I heard that there are also traders that play with VIX
I can't back it up and I honestly don't really understand
I wonder if Uncle Buffett's Apprenticeship is good to simply buy it in installments when it gets lower
I feel like I was able to sort things out and calm down while I was writing.
Thank you very much.
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