Matrixport Market Observation: The crypto market lacks catalysts, beware of the risk of a pullback after BTC's technical rise

In the past week, BTC fell as much as 12% during the week, falling to $52,550 on September 7, and then entered a technical correction. It broke through $58,000 on the morning of September 10 and then fell back. It is currently fluctuating around $57,000 ((The above data is from Binance spot, September 10 16:00). Limited by the current lack of catalysts related to BTC, the current catalysts are basically related to the FOMC interest rate decision, and BTC lacks strong market driving force. Although the price of BTC rose this week, based on the current perpetual contract financing rate and futures basis, investors are advised to carefully evaluate market trends and pay attention to the risk of callbacks.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for August will be released on Wednesday and Thursday. The inflation report will further inform the Fed's decision at the next Open Market Committee meeting. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the market now predicts a 71% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting, and only a 29% chance of a 50 basis point cut.

As of the close of September 9, European and US stock markets rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by more than 500 points and the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by more than 1%. The market believes that the stock market rebound is not affected by the news, but is a normal market dip driven by oversold conditions and monetary policy expectations.

ABC News reported that Harris' first presidential debate with Trump will be held at 9 a.m. on September 11 at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and will be broadcast live on ABC News Live, Disney+ and Hulu. Harris' campaign website published a list of proposed policy positions for her future presidential administration, which did not mention encryption-related topics. But Harris promised to support the development of the artificial intelligence industry and emphasized the importance of cultivating "other cutting-edge industries in the future."

The Fed’s rate cut is a foregone conclusion, but market concerns about the prospect of a U.S. recession have reduced the catalyst’s driving force. In August, the VIX index, which measures market volatility, jumped above 65, a level that has only appeared twice in history, namely the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis in 2008. Investors’ concerns about a potential recession outweighed the long-awaited positive expectations of a rate cut.

At the same time, the current market indicators show that the demand for long-term transactions in the market has declined, investors are generally interested in long-term directional exposure to Bitcoin prices, and traders are cautious about their current positions. In the current context, investors are advised to reduce their reliance on a single market, diversify and reasonably allocate assets (satellite strategy) to cope with potential short-term market fluctuations. At the same time, under the premise of market adjustments, long-term investors can pay close attention to medium- and long-term opportunities in the market, but they also need to pay attention to risk control, and can allocate some robust cost protection products to ensure basic income and earn interest on holding coins.

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BTC prices are up this week, but based on current perpetual contract financing rates as well as futures basis spreads, investors are advised to carefully assess market trends and make proper asset allocations, so come and try out the free trade!