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-- 71.510 Micron drops 16%! Bullish outlook for AI memory, hindered by sluggish Smart Phone and PC sales. U.S. stock earnings summary
Semiconductor Memory giant $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ Veru Inc announced earnings after the close on December 18th. Subsequently, the stock price plummeted by 16% in after-hours trading. Weakness in the 2nd quarter guidance for fiscal 2025was viewed unfavorably.Was disgusted.
AI Semiconductor Memory is doing well.However,It is still insufficient to compensate for the sluggish demand for smartphones and computers.The managementhasdetermined that in the medium to long term,AI Semiconductor MemoryregardingBullish outlook.showing that the contribution to performance will grow significantly.
Performance for 1Q (September-November period) of FY2025: turned into profit as expected.
◇Adjusted EPS (Earnings Per Share) per share.: $1.79, a loss of $0.95 in the same period last year, market expectations are $1.76.
◇revenue: $8.71 billion, an 84% increase compared to the same period last year, market expectations are $8.71 billion.
・As expected by the market.Achieved a turnaround to profit..Revenue from datacenters.It increased five times compared to the same period last year, and also increased by 40% compared to the previous quarter, accounting for over half of the total for the first time. Revenue from the largest datacenter customer accounted for approximately 13% of the total revenue.
・By product category,DRAMrevenue was $6.4 billion, an 87% increase from the same period last year, accounting for 73% of total revenue. The expanded demand for data center contributed to this.NANDrevenue was $2.2 billion, a 5% decrease from the previous quarter.
・AI Semiconductor Memoryの⾼帯域幅メモリ(HBM.)は歩留まりと容量の増強を着実に実行した結果、出荷は計画を上回り、HBMの収益は前四半期⽐で2倍以上増加した。
・By product category,DRAMrevenue was $6.4 billion, an 87% increase from the same period last year, accounting for 73% of total revenue. The expanded demand for data center contributed to this.NANDrevenue was $2.2 billion, a 5% decrease from the previous quarter.
・AI Semiconductor Memoryの⾼帯域幅メモリ(HBM.)は歩留まりと容量の増強を着実に実行した結果、出荷は計画を上回り、HBMの収益は前四半期⽐で2倍以上増加した。
2Q (December-February) guidance: Expected to fall below estimates.
◇revenueEPS: $7.9 billion ± $2 billion, market estimate is $8.99 billion.
◇調整後EPSEPS: $1.33 - $1.53, market estimate is $1.92.
◇revenueEPS: $7.9 billion ± $2 billion, market estimate is $8.99 billion.
◇調整後EPSEPS: $1.33 - $1.53, market estimate is $1.92.
・The management team is concerned about the weakness in guidance."Due to NAND.explained, "The NAND industry's market conditions are weaker than expected, with weak demand in consumer markets,PC and Smart Phone demand is weak.and inventory adjustments are being made."
・At the same time, "DRAMrevenue accounts for a high percentage of the overall business, with a high proportion of DRAM product composition.PositiveIt has been shown that it is definitely having a positive impact. HBM and other data center products are also performing well.
・However,Short-term tailwinds for DRAM will be offset by headwinds for NAND,"To begin improving the NAND market situation, it will likely take some time after entering the first quarter of the calendar year 2025."
・At the same time, "DRAMrevenue accounts for a high percentage of the overall business, with a high proportion of DRAM product composition.PositiveIt has been shown that it is definitely having a positive impact. HBM and other data center products are also performing well.
・However,Short-term tailwinds for DRAM will be offset by headwinds for NAND,"To begin improving the NAND market situation, it will likely take some time after entering the first quarter of the calendar year 2025."
◇CustomersMicron began mass production of AI semiconductor memory "HBM 3E" in February 2024. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The company's "HBM3E8H" is integrated into Dai's "BlackwellB200" and "GB200 platform".nvidiaThis month, second largest customermass shipments are scheduled for 1Q.3rd major customeris scheduled to start massive shipments to
◇Order and revenue scale: HBM is sold out for 2025, and pricing for this period has already been determined.Fiscal year 2025ForHBM's revenue is in the tens of billions of dollarsIt is expected to reach it. The management has indicated that they expect the market share to expand again in 2025.
※The sales for 2025 are sold out, and pricing has been determined.AI Semiconductor MemoryThe high accuracy of revenue for AI Semiconductor Memory is a positive factor, but on the other hand,the potential for upside in the short term is limited.Therefore,non-AI-related departments are weaker than expected.The degree of underperformance in performance is being highlighted. This point is believed to be differentiating Micron from other AI semiconductor related stocks, potentially influencing stock price evaluation.
◇Market SizeThe company predicts that the total addressable market (TAM) of HBM will exceed 30 billion dollars by 2025, which is an upward revision of approximately 20% from previous estimates. By 2028, the TAM of HBM is expected to grow to four times the level of 16 billion dollars in 2024 and exceed 100 billion dollars by 2030.Achievable Maximum Market SizeIt is predicted that the total addressable market (TAM) of HBM will exceed 30 billion dollars by 2025, which is an upward revision of approximately 20% from previous estimates. By 2028, the TAM of HBM is expected to grow to four times the level of 16 billion dollars in 2024 and exceed 100 billion dollars by 2030.It is predicted that the total addressable market (TAM) of HBM will exceed 30 billion dollars by 2025, which is an upward revision of approximately 20% from previous estimates. By 2028, the TAM of HBM is expected to grow to four times the level of 16 billion dollars in 2024 and exceed 100 billion dollars by 2030.It is predicted that the total addressable market (TAM) of HBM will exceed 30 billion dollars by 2025, which is an upward revision of approximately 20% from previous estimates. By 2028, the TAM of HBM is expected to grow to four times the level of 16 billion dollars in 2024 and exceed 100 billion dollars by 2030.中長期的に事業および成長のチャンスが大きいと示した。
◇製品ロードマップ：HBM3の次世代品HBM4（パフォーマンス50％以上向上）は2026年にFor the industry.Mass productionis planned.The development work on HBM4E, following HBM4,is progressing with multiple customers.Smoothis moving forward. The management team states, "HBM4E is, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ By incorporating the option to customize logic-based dies for specific customers using its advanced logic foundry manufacturing process, it brings a paradigm shift to the memory business. This customization feature allows said, "Expecting Micron's financial performance to improve.", said.
After the earnings announcement, eight analysts revised their target stock prices downward. As of December 19th,Average Target Priceis $141.85,highest Target Priceis $180.00,lowest Target Priceis $70.00 respectively.
Many analysts believeprofitablein the AI fieldis gaining momentumafter that recoveryThe non-AI sector for consumersis lagging behind expectations.mentioned that. Management has indicated, " consumer businessisby the second half of the 2025 fiscal year (after June 2025), it is expected to return to growth" and indicated. Therefore, in the short term, positive factors may be scarce, and could become a weight on the stock price. In the future, if the recovery of the consumer business accelerates unexpectedly, or if there are positive surprises such as expanding production capacity in AI semiconductor business, it may lead to revised buying decisions.
Market Analyst Julie, created on December 19, 24.
Source: Company documents and Bloomberg, created by MOOMOO Securities.
Source: Company documents and Bloomberg, created by MOOMOO Securities.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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