Microsoft OpenAI to invest 100 billion in “Stargate” development → pay attention to NVDA and SMCI! /US to China Export Regulations Announced, Adverse Effects on Intel, etc. ◇This Week's Important Materials◇

In response to PCE statistics as predicted by the market, Fed Chairman Powell emphasized the start of interest rate cuts by the end of the year, but he explained again that there is no need to hurry. Institutional investors such as City still showed interest rate cut scenarios starting in June, but uncertainty about interest rate cuts in June is definitely rising. However, the US stock market forecast for Q2 remains the same as set at the beginning of the year, and it is generally expected that the upward trend will continue, and above allUntil interest rate cuts are implemented, purchases of tech stocks such as AI semiconductors will continue to be the main strategy due to “FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)”I see. This week's market prices are still being developed to search for new clues to interest rate forecasts that have increased uncertainty. Employment statistics are being announced this week, and it is expected that the market will want to determine these.In addition to the number of private sector jobs on the 2nd, non-farm payrolls on the 5th, and the unemployment rate are highIt's likely to happen.

However, in order to focus on individual materials this week, rather than employment statistics, the semiconductor sector in particular. On the weekend, big ingredients surfaced one by one. First,MicroSoft (MSFT) plans to develop the supercomputer “Stargate” in collaboration with its investor OpenAI and invest a total of 100 billion dollarsIt looks like it is. “Star Date” is part of an AI infrastructure construction project that both companies started a few years ago, and it was reported that both companies have advanced to stage 3 of the same project, which has 5 stages. Since the purpose of “Star Date” is to develop and operate AGI (general-purpose artificial intelligence → AI with thought circuits and emotions close to humans), it is thought that it will become the world's largest data center based on investment amount, and the most high-end super chips and servers will be introduced.

Therefore, NVIDIA (NVDA), which is scheduled to be shipped from next yearThere is a high possibility that the GB200 Super Chip will be used, and NVIDIA will be the biggest beneficiaryI'll take a look. Also,HBM and Grace platform CPUs are used in the GB200, and in addition to NVDA, South Korea's SK Hynix and Arm (ARM) directly benefitIt looks like I'll be able to accept it. Also, NVIDIA has shown enhanced cooperation with Synopsys (SNPS), Cadence (CDNS), etc. in the development of B200 chips constituting the GB200, and it is also an indirect benefit brand of “Star Date.” Also, against the backdrop of a huge investment in “Stargate,”There is a possibility that demand for servers will be further boosted, and supermicrocomputers (SMCIs) will be examined againThere is a high possibility, and cooling-related stocks AAON and VRT for data centers and servers also deserve attention.

Meanwhile, the US authorities announced new export restrictions to China last weekend, and PCs equipped with advanced semiconductors are also subject to export restrictions (4/4). The same regulation is for PC-related stocksNegative for Intel (INTC), Dell (DELL), HP Ink (HPQ), AMD, etc.Therefore, I think there is a high possibility that stock prices will be subject to some selling pressure over the next few days.

In addition to semiconductor stocks, traffic has been closed due to the failure of one cargo ship in the Bosphorus Strait in Turkey, so there is also a possibility that it will be taken as short-term good material for shipping stocks and food stocks. Above all, food transportation from Russia and Ukraine must always go through the same strait, and there is a possibility that supply concerns will increase until traffic is resumed.

Also, the weekend'sBarron's mentions popular purchases with PayPal (PYPL). Unlike the past, the same stock has lost all of its monopoly and oligopoly advantages, and the probability that it will recover to the previous high price level is extremely low. However, if we can really get out of the worst period, there is a possibility that the recent stock price increase will continue for a while, and the deliciousness of aiming for a rebound is rising.