moomoo Australia 2025 investment outlook & my own guesswork

After reading moomoo's 2025 outlook whitepaper, it's very good and professional. It's almost the new year, and I will also write a 2025 forecast. It's not professional, just for entertainment.

I would like to make a preface that the reasons I provide will be quite one-sided because they are blind guesses. They do not constitute any investment advice, nor do they bear any responsibility. Friends with different ideas are welcome to offer valuable opinions. Getting to the point:

ETF

This year is very popular, reaching a record high of 1.4 trillion. Next year, the music will continue, the dance will continue. ETF is a trend, especially in a bull market, who doesn't like leverage?

AI Wave

The party has just started, there is still a long way to go before a bubble, let's play back and forth in these years.

The main reason is that the big shots have invested a lot of real money. Before they are fully satisfied, the small retail investors already want to leave? The 7 sisters don't say there is a bubble, let's see who dares to burst it first. So, in 25 years, AI will continue to be a fancy toy for the 7 sisters and their buddies.

Although the situation in the English-speaking world is not going smoothly recently, Google has developed new quantum tricks, and Microsoft is getting stronger. The 7 sisters will show off their talents and attract funds every once in a while.

I am more optimistic about Google and Microsoft in 2025. These two industry giants cannot always be at the bottom. The other elites are too high to chase. When negative news in this area appears and deep adjustments are made, that is what I consider a good time to get on board: Google's Chrome lawsuit separation and Microsoft's former CEO's mess.

The Fed cuts interest rates by 0.3.

Hey, how much of a rate cut is considered a cut? Tariffs need to be added, the Republican energy giants need to be cherished, the MEGA supporters of the president need to be comfortable, when high commodity prices match high energy prices and high consumption subsidies with high labor costs, that's high inflation. At this point, if the Fed dares to cut rates, it might have to double back later. It's like someone with a single-track mind suddenly hitting a roadblock on both ends. The defeated democratic dogs also need to be accounted for by the president. So, next year's rate cut by the Fed will be delayed and will make a lot of noise but little rain, it might give you a glimmer of hope, but don't expect a significant rate cut.

Opportunities in Emerging Markets.

Chinese A-shares will be better next year compared to this year, but don't expect too much improvement.

Many people were excited about the first "moderate easing" in over a decade at the December meeting, seeing it as a turning point. But what I care more about is the term "moderate". With the Chinese economy in such a bad shape, easing is expected, and adding the word "moderate" suggests that the easing will be very limited. I speculate that this is due to considerations regarding the internationalization of the Renminbi. After all, when Middle Eastern tycoons look at our leaders and bring in real gold and silver to buy RMB, isn't it because they see stability and reliability in us? If we were to implement a massive easing policy at this time, it wouldn't reflect our responsible image as a major nation.

However, the party's policies have always been flexible, and when it comes to issues related to public sentiment and national interests, such as a further skyrocketing unemployment rate, there have been many precedents of policies making a 180-degree turn.

Focus on hot topics like semiconductors, chips, military industry, and robotics when investing. Avoid real estate, and don't take consumer trends too seriously. If a brokerage sees a big uptick the day before a policy is introduced, sell off.

India and South Korea each have their unique characteristics that may be hard to understand for outsiders.

Well... Cherish life, stay away from Hong Kong stocks. The biggest failure this year is Hong Kong stocks, where the rise in technology resulted in losses.

5. Trump returns to the White House

This time, the "King of Understanding" will not be as radical as before. When he first became president, the "King of Understanding" was a political amateur, without a political base, needing public acceptance, resulting in many controversial actions.

This time is different, "King of Understanding" is divinely protected, the chosen one, bullets dodging, Democrats have no enemies, the judges are also on his side, so it is not appropriate to engage in excessive controversial actions. After all, even if the actions are controversial, they are only for this term, the focus should be on self-preservation.

So, the predictions for "King of Understanding" are likely to start by dealing with the Democrats first because we all know how he has come through these years. Repaying grievances with kindness is not possible; then reward his subordinates, and engage in a trade war with China, leverage on some alliances, after completing these tasks, it might not be enough for the entire next year. After all, he is the chosen one at the age of 78, so the pace won't be too fast.

Predicting that 2025 will be a relatively stable year, the US stock market will have 2-3 minor corrections of no more than 10%, the US dollar will not sharply appreciate, energy prices will not plummet, and Bitcoin will not reach 0.2 million.

6. Bitcoin reaches a new high

My eternal pain. Once there was a sincere opportunity to buy in at $50. After listening to him for an hour, I thought he was treating me like a fool. I was wrong, I was the fool... But I won't go back to buy Bitcoin, what's lost is lost. Not for any other reason, but $50 didn't buy 0.1 million...

5. Australian stock market

Do not buy Australian mining stocks, very bearish.

For the Chinese real estate market, there is no hope for the next 25 years, so investing in Australian iron ore is also hopeless. China is not lacking in lithium mines, and the demand for batteries is not that huge. The era of getting rich quick by buying mining stocks is over, at least not next year. However, if you must choose, then there may be opportunities in copper (semiconductors), uranium (new energy), and some rare minerals found only in China and Australia (especially those banned by China from being exported to the USA). Buying gold when it's low may be a good idea, as it could be a bet on a short-term geopolitical crisis.

In conclusion, mining stocks are not favorable during an economic recession. Instead of taking the risk of investing in mining stocks, it's better to stick with technology stocks. For example, Appen from the moomoo white paper is a good choice. It has performed well this year, and hopefully will continue to do so next year.

Summarizing next year's investment strategy

Next year, the international environment is likely to be a year of struggle for unity, with the theme of 'struggle without breaking'. The 'Big Five Troublemakers' all have issues and are somewhat stagnant. The interweaving of many unfavorable factors could paradoxically create a kind of delicate balance.

Furthermore, the United States has quite a few internal and external problems, with conflicts involving Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East. The approach towards China is likely to be more focused on strategic intimidation, along with economic sanctions serving as leverage. Therefore, the buying opportunity arises from policy factors resulting from great power conflicts. The recent buying opportunity is to understand how Wang's imposition of tax sanctions on China may unfold, while the selling point (premium content).

Wishing all friends to make a fortune next year.