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Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Warn of Q3 U.S. Stock Market Correction

Analysts warn that the third quarter tends to be a seasonally volatile period, especially when signs of overheating appear. Morgan Stanley suggests there is a high probability of a 10% correction between now and the election. Goldman Sachs believes that disappointing corporate earnings could lead to a painful two weeks starting in August.

"Smart money" is rapidly changing direction, with hedge funds selling tech stocks at the fastest pace in five months and pouring into energy and materials sectors. However, these sectors remain the least favored by hedge funds, with their long-short ratios at or near five-year lows.

As the U.S. earnings season kicks off this week, Wall Street has high expectations for corporate earnings. FactSet predicts that $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$ earnings will grow nearly 9% year-over-year in Q2, potentially the largest quarterly increase since early 2022. If tech giants fail to exceed expectations, stock prices may correct.
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