Morgan Stanley sees the UAW strike of 2023 as very similar to the 2019 strike against General Motors, but with a significant difference. Last time, there was no viable alternative to domestic auto production outside of the Detroit 3 (GM, Ford, Stellantis).
In 2019, when the UAW went on strike for a grueling six weeks, Tesla had a 1% US market share and financial troubles. Now, Tesla's share is around 5%, expected to double soon, possibly surpassing GM and Ford combined by the end of the decade.
“Tesla's influence on both sides of the negotiating table looms larger that it appears,” wrote Morgan Stanley analysts.