Bitcoin welcomes its worst month of the year, beware of the sharp decline to $50,000. Shock in July again? August employment statistics, affected by interest rate cuts.
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Here are the key points for today's early morning report.
●[Tokyo Stock Market Forecast Range] 850,000-900,000 yen (closing price on the 2nd was 870,087 yen)
●Bitcoin welcomes its worst month of the year, be cautious of the sharp drop to $50,000
●Broadcom, expectations for the potential of AI—attention gathers around earnings reports
●Is the July shock coming back? August non-farm payroll statistics, impacting the interest rate cut—market expectations and risks
●Tesla, increased shipments from the Shanghai factory—boosted by the Chinese government's subsidy policy
●Mr. Harris to express opposition to the acquisition of US Steel by Japan's Nippon Steel
●VW does not exclude the closure of German factories, if implemented it would be a first in history—cost reduction
ーMoomoo News Sherry
●[Tokyo Stock Market Forecast Range] 850,000-900,000 yen (closing price on the 2nd was 870,087 yen)
●Bitcoin welcomes its worst month of the year, be cautious of the sharp drop to $50,000
●Broadcom, expectations for the potential of AI—attention gathers around earnings reports
●Is the July shock coming back? August non-farm payroll statistics, impacting the interest rate cut—market expectations and risks
●Tesla, increased shipments from the Shanghai factory—boosted by the Chinese government's subsidy policy
●Mr. Harris to express opposition to the acquisition of US Steel by Japan's Nippon Steel
●VW does not exclude the closure of German factories, if implemented it would be a first in history—cost reduction
ーMoomoo News Sherry
Market overview
On the 2nd day, the US market was closed for Labor Day. On the 3rd, the Tokyo stock market is expected to have a generally solid performance, with the Nikkei Stock Average expected to remain strong in the mid-38,000 yen range despite the lack of key material clues.
On the 2nd day, the US market was closed for Labor Day. On the 3rd, the Tokyo stock market is expected to have a generally solid performance, with the Nikkei Stock Average expected to remain strong in the mid-38,000 yen range despite the lack of key material clues.
Top news
Tesla increases shipments from Shanghai plant - supported by Chinese government subsidy policies.
- $Tesla (TSLA.US)$Shipment of vehicles from the Shanghai plant has increased for the second consecutive month. This is due to the Chinese government doubling subsidies for replacing used cars with electric vehicles.
In August, approximately 86,697 Model 3 sedans and Model Y SUVs were shipped. This represents an increase of about 3% compared to the previous year and indicates momentum for recovery after a slowdown in the first half of the year.
●The Chinese government doubled the subsidies for electric vehicle models at the end of July to 20,000 yuan (about $2,800). This benefited entry-level battery EVs and plug-in hybrid cars the most.
Tesla increases shipments from Shanghai plant - supported by Chinese government subsidy policies.
- $Tesla (TSLA.US)$Shipment of vehicles from the Shanghai plant has increased for the second consecutive month. This is due to the Chinese government doubling subsidies for replacing used cars with electric vehicles.
In August, approximately 86,697 Model 3 sedans and Model Y SUVs were shipped. This represents an increase of about 3% compared to the previous year and indicates momentum for recovery after a slowdown in the first half of the year.
●The Chinese government doubled the subsidies for electric vehicle models at the end of July to 20,000 yuan (about $2,800). This benefited entry-level battery EVs and plug-in hybrid cars the most.
Broadcom, hopeful for the potential of AI, attracted attention with its earnings report
●Last week, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$announced earnings and profits that exceeded expectations, drawing significant attention. This week, $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$will release its earnings on Thursday. Wall Street is focusing on the potential of artificial intelligence.
●Broadcom's recent earnings were well-received, and the company is seen as one of the major beneficiaries in the AI field, alongside Nvidia. While its stock price has dropped by about 12% from its high, attention is on how long the AI rally will last.
●Oppenheimer's Rick Schafer expects that AI and VMware businesses will lead the third-quarter numbers and the fourth-quarter outlook.
●JP Morgan's Harlan Sur predicts that Broadcom is expecting around $12 billion in AI revenue this year and may reach over $16 billion next year.
●Last week, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$announced earnings and profits that exceeded expectations, drawing significant attention. This week, $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$will release its earnings on Thursday. Wall Street is focusing on the potential of artificial intelligence.
●Broadcom's recent earnings were well-received, and the company is seen as one of the major beneficiaries in the AI field, alongside Nvidia. While its stock price has dropped by about 12% from its high, attention is on how long the AI rally will last.
●Oppenheimer's Rick Schafer expects that AI and VMware businesses will lead the third-quarter numbers and the fourth-quarter outlook.
●JP Morgan's Harlan Sur predicts that Broadcom is expecting around $12 billion in AI revenue this year and may reach over $16 billion next year.
Bitcoin is experiencing its worst month of the year and cautioning against a sudden drop to $50,000.
● August $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$fell about 10% and became the worst month since April. $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$also fell about 23%, recording the worst month since June 2022.
● The uncertainty of the US interest rate cuts and the presidential election is affecting bitcoin trading, and there is a possibility that the difficult situation will continue in September as well. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin has fallen 8 times out of 11 Septembers in the past 11 years, making it the month with the maximum average decline of 4.8%.
● Rob Ginsburg of Wolfe Research pointed out that Bitcoin is in a downtrend from its high in March and is likely to return to the bottom of this range, the mid-50,000 dollar range.
● On the other hand, Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital mentioned that the supply issues of the US government, Germany, and Mt. Gox Bitcoin are being resolved and the supply situation is favorable. Cash distribution by FTX is expected to take place within the next 6 months, and it is predicted that many crypto investors will reinvest.
● The US presidential election is expected to have a significant impact on investors. Trump's victory is expected to be a positive factor, while Harris' victory is expected to have limited impact.
● August $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$fell about 10% and became the worst month since April. $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$also fell about 23%, recording the worst month since June 2022.
● The uncertainty of the US interest rate cuts and the presidential election is affecting bitcoin trading, and there is a possibility that the difficult situation will continue in September as well. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin has fallen 8 times out of 11 Septembers in the past 11 years, making it the month with the maximum average decline of 4.8%.
● Rob Ginsburg of Wolfe Research pointed out that Bitcoin is in a downtrend from its high in March and is likely to return to the bottom of this range, the mid-50,000 dollar range.
● On the other hand, Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital mentioned that the supply issues of the US government, Germany, and Mt. Gox Bitcoin are being resolved and the supply situation is favorable. Cash distribution by FTX is expected to take place within the next 6 months, and it is predicted that many crypto investors will reinvest.
● The US presidential election is expected to have a significant impact on investors. Trump's victory is expected to be a positive factor, while Harris' victory is expected to have limited impact.
Is it the reoccurrence of the July shock? The impact of August non-farm payroll statistics on interest rate cuts - market expectations and risks.
- The non-farm payroll statistics for August are expected to improve the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.2% and the number of employed persons is expected to increase by 0.163 million. In July, the unemployment rate reached a recent high of 4.3%, causing concerns in the market, but improvements are expected in August.
- Views from Wall Street major banks: Morgan Stanley predicts that the unemployment rate in August will improve to 4.2% and the number of non-farm payroll employees will increase by 0.185 million, and predicts a 25 basis point interest rate cut.
- Views from Wall Street major banks: Citi has a pessimistic view, predicting that the number of employees will increase by 0.125 million in August and the unemployment rate will remain at 4.3%. There is a possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September.
Mr. Harris expresses opposition to the US Steel acquisition by Nippon Steel.
Vice President Kamala Harris $Nippon Steel (5401.JP)$ of the United States $United States Steel (X.US)$ plans to express opposition to the acquisition. According to sources close to Harris' camp, he plans to visit Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on Labor Day to express at a local event that US Steel should continue to be owned and operated domestically. President Joe Biden also shares a negative view on the acquisition by Nippon Steel.
- The non-farm payroll statistics for August are expected to improve the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.2% and the number of employed persons is expected to increase by 0.163 million. In July, the unemployment rate reached a recent high of 4.3%, causing concerns in the market, but improvements are expected in August.
- Views from Wall Street major banks: Morgan Stanley predicts that the unemployment rate in August will improve to 4.2% and the number of non-farm payroll employees will increase by 0.185 million, and predicts a 25 basis point interest rate cut.
- Views from Wall Street major banks: Citi has a pessimistic view, predicting that the number of employees will increase by 0.125 million in August and the unemployment rate will remain at 4.3%. There is a possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September.
Mr. Harris expresses opposition to the US Steel acquisition by Nippon Steel.
Vice President Kamala Harris $Nippon Steel (5401.JP)$ of the United States $United States Steel (X.US)$ plans to express opposition to the acquisition. According to sources close to Harris' camp, he plans to visit Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on Labor Day to express at a local event that US Steel should continue to be owned and operated domestically. President Joe Biden also shares a negative view on the acquisition by Nippon Steel.
Volkswagen (VW) is considering the possibility of closing its automobile production plants and parts factories in Germany for cost reduction, amid intensifying competition. The VW Group stated that comprehensive restructuring is necessary for all brands to control the costs of factories, labor, products, and materials in the face of fierce competition from European rivals and Chinese manufacturers.
German automotive giant Volkswagen (VW) is considering the closure of its domestic automobile production plants and parts factories in order to reduce costs amidst intense competition. The VW Group has stated that comprehensive restructuring is necessary across all brands in order to control the costs of factories, labor, products, and materials in the face of fierce competition from European rivals and Chinese manufacturers.
German automotive giant Volkswagen (VW) is considering the closure of its domestic automobile production plants and parts factories in order to reduce costs amidst intense competition. The VW Group has stated that comprehensive restructuring is necessary across all brands in order to control the costs of factories, labor, products, and materials in the face of fierce competition from European rivals and Chinese manufacturers.
Outlook for Tokyo stock market
Stock market outlook for the 3rd day = With few clues due to the US stock market closed, weak yen is a tailwind
Stock market outlook for the 3rd day = With few clues due to the US stock market closed, weak yen is a tailwind
Foreign exchange
Source: moomoo, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, MINKABU
This article uses auto-translation partially.
This article uses auto-translation partially.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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