[Morning Report] "Too Strong" Expectations of US Rate Cuts, Market Volatility with This Week's Employment Statistics, Demonstrating the Vulnerability of Consensus for Dramatic Recovery from the Great Chaos of August.
![[Morning Report] "Too Strong" Expectations of US Rate Cuts, Market Volatility with This Week's Employment Statistics, Demonstrating the Vulnerability of Consens...](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20240902/9d84de6f3ef1e72180aa5ccf554a8a58.png/big?area=105&is_public=true)
Good morning Moomoo users!![]()
Here are the key points for today's early morning report.
● [Tokyo stock market forecast range] 87,000 yen-91,000 yen (closing price on August 30: 86,475 yen 75 sen).
● Nikkei average, experiencing significant volatility not seen in 34 years. Impact of Black Monday also observed.
● Wall Street's confidence reflected in August market.
● USD/JPY at 146.20 yen level, with overall strength of USD in overseas markets = Tokyo foreign exchange.
● US PCE price index rose 2.5% year-on-year in July, remaining flat compared to the previous month.
の24年5-7月期決算発表だった。引き続き業績は絶好調と見られてはいたが、ピークアウトを懸念する見方もあって、日米市場ともに身動きとれずにいたことはご承知の通りだ。
● [Attention to Consulting Companies Leading Growth in Chaotic Times] - One of the concerns that has been resolved one by one is the announcement of the financial results for the May-July period of XXX in 2024. It was known that the performance was still excellent, but there were concerns about peaking out, and as you know, both the Japanese and American markets were unable to move.
ーMoomoo News Sherry
● [Tokyo stock market forecast range] 87,000 yen-91,000 yen (closing price on August 30: 86,475 yen 75 sen).
● Nikkei average, experiencing significant volatility not seen in 34 years. Impact of Black Monday also observed.
● Wall Street's confidence reflected in August market.
● USD/JPY at 146.20 yen level, with overall strength of USD in overseas markets = Tokyo foreign exchange.
● US PCE price index rose 2.5% year-on-year in July, remaining flat compared to the previous month.
の24年5-7月期決算発表だった。引き続き業績は絶好調と見られてはいたが、ピークアウトを懸念する見方もあって、日米市場ともに身動きとれずにいたことはご承知の通りだ。
● [Attention to Consulting Companies Leading Growth in Chaotic Times] - One of the concerns that has been resolved one by one is the announcement of the financial results for the May-July period of XXX in 2024. It was known that the performance was still excellent, but there were concerns about peaking out, and as you know, both the Japanese and American markets were unable to move.
ーMoomoo News Sherry
Market overview
Top news
【Ryuichiro Kitahama's Stock Insight!】-Pay attention to consulting companies that lead to growth in the chaotic era!
As we approach the start of the September market, one concern after another has been resolved, which is great news. One of them is the financial results announcement for the XXX company for the May-July period of XXX in 2024. It was known that the performance was still excellent, but there were concerns about peaking out, and as you know, both the Japanese and American markets were unable to move. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$As we approach the start of the September market, one concern after another has been resolved, which is great news. One of them is the financial results announcement for the XXX company for the May-July period of XXX in 2024. It was known that the performance was still excellent, but there were concerns about peaking out, and as you know, both the Japanese and American markets were unable to move.
Related Article
Takaya Tomita's [CHART CLUB] "Entering the September market, considering individual stock's potential to buy"
【Ryuichiro Kitahama's Stock Insight!】-Pay attention to consulting companies that lead to growth in the chaotic era!
As we approach the start of the September market, one concern after another has been resolved, which is great news. One of them is the financial results announcement for the XXX company for the May-July period of XXX in 2024. It was known that the performance was still excellent, but there were concerns about peaking out, and as you know, both the Japanese and American markets were unable to move. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$As we approach the start of the September market, one concern after another has been resolved, which is great news. One of them is the financial results announcement for the XXX company for the May-July period of XXX in 2024. It was known that the performance was still excellent, but there were concerns about peaking out, and as you know, both the Japanese and American markets were unable to move.
Related Article
Takaya Tomita's [CHART CLUB] "Entering the September market, considering individual stock's potential to buy"
【Toshio Sugimura's Short-Term Market Observation】- For the time being, use the investment strategy of "seeing the trees, not the forest".
The turmoil in the financial markets in early August (summer storm) is subsiding. However, "sparks" such as the Bank of Japan's monetary policy (pressure for a strong yen), the LDP leadership election (the appearance of a prime minister who denies a weak yen and high stock prices, charting a course away from deflation), and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election (a televised debate on September 10th) remain. It is expected that individual stock selection will continue. Specifically, it will be a movement to solidify prices (formation of the second bottom). BOJ Governor Ueda has defended the recent stock price plunge and the surge in the yen, saying that it was mainly due to concerns about a U.S. economic recession and geopolitical risks associated with the escalating situation in the Middle East. Is this from the U.S.? No, that's not the case.
The turmoil in the financial markets in early August (summer storm) is subsiding. However, "sparks" such as the Bank of Japan's monetary policy (pressure for a strong yen), the LDP leadership election (the appearance of a prime minister who denies a weak yen and high stock prices, charting a course away from deflation), and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election (a televised debate on September 10th) remain. It is expected that individual stock selection will continue. Specifically, it will be a movement to solidify prices (formation of the second bottom). BOJ Governor Ueda has defended the recent stock price plunge and the surge in the yen, saying that it was mainly due to concerns about a U.S. economic recession and geopolitical risks associated with the escalating situation in the Middle East. Is this from the U.S.? No, that's not the case.
Riding on the momentum of a big breakout, the top 7 stocks selected for the growth market with "rapid expansion in performance" <Kabutan Top Feature>.
In the Tokyo stock market, although the leading semiconductor stocks are weighed down, market sentiment has improved, and the overall index is showing a steady recovery. However, the hottest spot at present is not in the main board market. The group of stocks in the growth market, which individual investors had been dispersing, is roaring again after a long time. It's a great opportunity to pick up promising stocks with good performance and growth potential right now.
In the Tokyo stock market, although the leading semiconductor stocks are weighed down, market sentiment has improved, and the overall index is showing a steady recovery. However, the hottest spot at present is not in the main board market. The group of stocks in the growth market, which individual investors had been dispersing, is roaring again after a long time. It's a great opportunity to pick up promising stocks with good performance and growth potential right now.
Nikkei average, largest fluctuation in 34 years, also affected by Black Monday
-Concerns about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and the slowdown of the U.S. economy caused severe fluctuations in early August.
-The Nikkei Average fell 13% temporarily on August 5th ("Black Monday"), and the difference between the high and low of August reached 7,625 points. This is the largest monthly range of fluctuations since August 1990. However, the volatility quickly subsided this time, suggesting a different outlook.
-Koichi Kurose of Resona Asset Management stated that with the recovery of the Japanese economy, a wide range of trades will stabilize from September and there is a possibility that the market will approach its all-time high by the end of the year.
-Concerns about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and the slowdown of the U.S. economy caused severe fluctuations in early August.
-The Nikkei Average fell 13% temporarily on August 5th ("Black Monday"), and the difference between the high and low of August reached 7,625 points. This is the largest monthly range of fluctuations since August 1990. However, the volatility quickly subsided this time, suggesting a different outlook.
-Koichi Kurose of Resona Asset Management stated that with the recovery of the Japanese economy, a wide range of trades will stabilize from September and there is a possibility that the market will approach its all-time high by the end of the year.
Wall Street's confidence reflected in August's market.
-After the worst volatility since the pandemic, Wall Street showed confidence in forecasting the future.
-ETFs that track government bonds, corporate bonds, and stocks have risen for four consecutive months, updating the longest record since 2007.
-The S&P 500 has risen 25% in the past 12 months, the first time it has risen so much before the start of a rate cut cycle.
-In August, the S&P 500 rose by 2.3%, long-term government bond ETFs rose by 1.8%, and investment grade bonds rose by 1.5%, showing the strength of cross-asset bullish sentiment.
-Despite the market's recovery, the initial turmoil in August demonstrates the vulnerability of the current market consensus. This year's economic data and corporate profits have not yet shown significant risks, but the lesson from August indicates the possibility of a sudden collapse of market consensus.
-Traders are buying a wide range of stocks, from small-cap stocks to high-risk bonds.
-After the worst volatility since the pandemic, Wall Street showed confidence in forecasting the future.
-ETFs that track government bonds, corporate bonds, and stocks have risen for four consecutive months, updating the longest record since 2007.
-The S&P 500 has risen 25% in the past 12 months, the first time it has risen so much before the start of a rate cut cycle.
-In August, the S&P 500 rose by 2.3%, long-term government bond ETFs rose by 1.8%, and investment grade bonds rose by 1.5%, showing the strength of cross-asset bullish sentiment.
-Despite the market's recovery, the initial turmoil in August demonstrates the vulnerability of the current market consensus. This year's economic data and corporate profits have not yet shown significant risks, but the lesson from August indicates the possibility of a sudden collapse of market consensus.
-Traders are buying a wide range of stocks, from small-cap stocks to high-risk bonds.
The USD/JPY is at 146.20 yen, with the US dollar strengthening across overseas markets - Tokyo Foreign Exchange.
-The morning USD/JPY is trading in the 146.20 yen range, with the US dollar gaining strength in overseas markets. Supported by rising US bond yields.
-US economic indicators show signs of calming inflation and resilient consumer spending, which has led to a retreat in expectations of a substantial rate cut in September.
-Although US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) increased, core price index remained moderately stagnant.
-Consumer sentiment at the University of Michigan improved for the first time in 5 months in August.
-As US bond yields rise, the dollar strengthens and the yen weakens.
-The employment statistics on the 6th are the main focus, and the dollar-yen exchange rate may fluctuate significantly depending on the related indicators.
Related Article
USA PCE Price Index, up 2.5% year-on-year in July, unchanged from the previous month.
-The morning USD/JPY is trading in the 146.20 yen range, with the US dollar gaining strength in overseas markets. Supported by rising US bond yields.
-US economic indicators show signs of calming inflation and resilient consumer spending, which has led to a retreat in expectations of a substantial rate cut in September.
-Although US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) increased, core price index remained moderately stagnant.
-Consumer sentiment at the University of Michigan improved for the first time in 5 months in August.
-As US bond yields rise, the dollar strengthens and the yen weakens.
-The employment statistics on the 6th are the main focus, and the dollar-yen exchange rate may fluctuate significantly depending on the related indicators.
Related Article
USA PCE Price Index, up 2.5% year-on-year in July, unchanged from the previous month.
This week's earnings and economic calendar (9/2~9/6) - a turning point in the rising market? Will it be a revenge time with the US employment statistics?
Is this week's Japanese stock market making progress? Although the US market is closed on September 2nd, there is a sense of relief that the announcement of the US PCE deflator and NVIDIA's earnings on August 30th did not cause turmoil in the market.週前半は買いが優勢となる可能性がある。週後半は米雇用統計の発表を控え、投資家が様子見姿勢を強めるだろう。前回の雇用統計で市場が大きく動いたこともあり、パウエル議長も「利下げの時期と幅は今後のデータ次第The market is watching the latest direction of the employment market, mentioned.
Is this week's Japanese stock market making progress? Although the US market is closed on September 2nd, there is a sense of relief that the announcement of the US PCE deflator and NVIDIA's earnings on August 30th did not cause turmoil in the market.週前半は買いが優勢となる可能性がある。週後半は米雇用統計の発表を控え、投資家が様子見姿勢を強めるだろう。前回の雇用統計で市場が大きく動いたこともあり、パウエル議長も「利下げの時期と幅は今後のデータ次第The market is watching the latest direction of the employment market, mentioned.
Outlook for Tokyo stock market
Stock market outlook for the 2nd: continues to rise, aiming to recover in the 39,000 yen range.
Stock market outlook for the 2nd: continues to rise, aiming to recover in the 39,000 yen range.
Foreign exchange
Major market events
![[Morning Report] "Too Strong" Expectations of US Rate Cuts, Market Volatility with This Week's Employment Statistics, Demonstrating the Vulnerability of Consens...](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20240902/0a9e0e1b7c96c98404e7083def2a61ad.png/big?area=105&is_public=true)
Source: moomoo, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, MINKABU
This article utilizes automatic translation in certain parts.
This article utilizes automatic translation in certain parts.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
