[Morning Report] Hedge fund crude oil shorts increase UBS predicts 275 bp interest rate cut next year

Good morning to all Moomoo users!Here are the key points of this morning's first report.
● [Tokyo Stock Exchange Rate Forecast Range] 32,400 yen - 32,900 yen (13th closing price 32,585 yen 11 sen)
● US consumers' inflation expectations for the year ahead, fall slightly in October - NY Federal Reserve Bank survey
● The sense of elation that began to drift into US stocks, and the optimism of individual investors intensified - with interest rate hikes ending
● US interest rate decline next year is close to 4 times market factored in - UBS strategist
● Hedge fund crude oil shorts increase, demand concerns rise again
— MooMoo News Zeber

Market Overview
In the US stock market on the 13th, the NY Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to rise to 34,337 dollars 87 cents, 54 dollars 77 cents higher than the previous business day. The Nasdaq Composite Stock Price Index fell by 30.365 points to 13,767.743. There is a high possibility that the Tokyo stock market on the 14th will have a buying advantage centered on major stocks, and the Nikkei Stock Average will continue to grow.

Top news
[Preview] Will US October CPI slow as expected? Determining the future of US monetary tightening
The US Department of Labor Statistics Bureau is scheduled to announce the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October at 22:30 on 2023/11/14 (Tuesday) Japan time. While investors are trying to determine whether the Fed will go through one more rate hike, it has also been pointed out that there is a possibility that the US CPI for October will be an important crossroads.

U.S. Consumer Expectations for Inflation One Year Ahead Decline Slightly in October-NY Federal Reserve Survey
A survey by the New York Federal Reserve Bank revealed that US consumers' inflation expectations for the year ahead fell slightly in October. According to data released by the Federal Reserve Bank on the 13th, inflation expectations for the year ahead (median value) were 3.6%, a slight drop from 3.7% in September. Inflation expectations for the next three years remain unchanged at 3%. Inflation expectations for the next five years were 2.7%, down from 2.8% the previous month.

The sense of elation that began to drift into US stocks, and the optimism of individual investors intensified - with interest rate hikes finished
While the US stock market is showing a rapid recovery, a sense of elation has begun to drift in the market. According to a survey by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), responses that were optimistic about the stock market increased by 75%, while responses that were pessimistic declined sharply. AAI's “bull bear” spread jumped 41 points, making it the largest increase from the previous week since the beginning of 2009.

US interest rate decline next year is close to 4 times market factored in - UBS strategist
UBS Investment Bank strategists predict that the Federal Reserve (FRB) will cut policy interest rates by a total of 275 basis points (bp, 1 bp = 0.01%) next year. This is close to four times the rate cuts that the market has incorporated.

Hedge fund crude oil shorts increase, demand concerns rise again
Money managers have increased their bearish investments in U.S. crude oil more than fourfold in the past month. Demand concerns have once again spread to the market. According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of short only positions increased by more than 20,000 in the week until the 7th, reaching 95,756. The short is now at its highest level since July. Meanwhile, hedge funds have reduced investments that anticipated market price increases for 6 consecutive weeks.

NVIDIA Improves Processors for AI - Aims to Maintain Market Advantage
US semiconductor manufacturer's $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$announced an improved version of the processor “H100” for artificial intelligence (AI). NVIDIA's superiority in the AI computing market has already increased with the H100, but performance has been further improved through improvements.

Amazon is the female Bezos style of TikTok's shadow for strong online shopping
Rice that will celebrate 30 years since its establishment in 2024 $Amazon(AMZN.US)$is plagued by “internal and external distress.” While the ancestral e-commerce (EC) business is being challenged by new forces such as TikTok (TikTok) in the United States, where it is based, global expansion is at a standstill. The success model built by founder Jeff Bezos has also begun to be pressured to be revised.

Tokyo Stock Exchange Rate Forecast
Stock exchange rate forecast for the 14th = continued growth, wait-and-see mood before the US CPI announcement

Foreign substitutes