[Morning Report] Will Berkshire and Apple almost halve to 145 yen due to deterioration in US employment, will NVIDIA's latest AI semiconductors be delayed?
![[Morning Report] Will Berkshire and Apple almost halve to 145 yen due to deterioration in US employment, will NVIDIA's latest AI semiconductors be delayed?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20240805/1722814413925-c841337ce5.png/big?area=105&is_public=true)
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Here are the key points of this morning's first report.
● [Tokyo Stock Exchange Rate Forecast Range] 0.03 million4800 yen - 0.03 million5300 yen (2-day closing price 0.03 million5909 yen 70 sen)
● Concerns about the deterioration of the US economy intensified, stock depreciation and government bond yields declined, and the dollar yen was in the 145 yen range at one point
● Rumors that NVIDIA lags behind the latest AI semiconductor Blackwell
● Berkshire almost halves Apple stock holdings
● Tesla's sales in China increased 15% from the previous year in July, as was the tailwind of government subsidies
● “Shares bought!” on the 2nd of the previous weekend Total Zalai — What are the expected stocks leading up to today? ―Japanese stocks
-MOOMOO NEWS Amelia
● Concerns about the deterioration of the US economy intensified, stock depreciation and government bond yields declined, and the dollar yen was in the 145 yen range at one point
● Rumors that NVIDIA lags behind the latest AI semiconductor Blackwell
● Berkshire almost halves Apple stock holdings
● Tesla's sales in China increased 15% from the previous year in July, as was the tailwind of government subsidies
● “Shares bought!” on the 2nd of the previous weekend Total Zalai — What are the expected stocks leading up to today? ―Japanese stocks
-MOOMOO NEWS Amelia
Market Overview
In the US stock market on the 2nd, the NY Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to drop drastically to 0.03 million9737 dollars 26 cents, which is 610 dollars 71 cents lower than the previous business day. The Nasdaq Composite Stock Price Index fell 417.981 points to 0.01 million6776.164. In the Tokyo stock market on the 5th, the Nikkei Stock Average continued to plummet, devaluing the level to the first half of the 0.03 million5000 yen range, and in some cases, it is expected that it will drop below 0.03 million5,000 yen all at once. It showed a sharp drop of about 2200 yen the previous weekend, but as the global risk-off trend intensifies, it seems that the trend of depreciation of the dollar and appreciation of the yen progressing in the foreign exchange market will also be affected, and the movement to search for lower prices will continue.
In the US stock market on the 2nd, the NY Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to drop drastically to 0.03 million9737 dollars 26 cents, which is 610 dollars 71 cents lower than the previous business day. The Nasdaq Composite Stock Price Index fell 417.981 points to 0.01 million6776.164. In the Tokyo stock market on the 5th, the Nikkei Stock Average continued to plummet, devaluing the level to the first half of the 0.03 million5000 yen range, and in some cases, it is expected that it will drop below 0.03 million5,000 yen all at once. It showed a sharp drop of about 2200 yen the previous weekend, but as the global risk-off trend intensifies, it seems that the trend of depreciation of the dollar and appreciation of the yen progressing in the foreign exchange market will also be affected, and the movement to search for lower prices will continue.
Top news
Concerns about the deterioration of the US economy intensified, stock depreciation and government bond yields declined, and the dollar yen was in the 145 yen range at one point
The number of people employed in the non-farm sector in July was 0.114 million, which was significantly lower than market expectations. The unemployment rate also exceeded expectations and rose to 4.3%. Concerns about economic deterioration intensified in response to the labor market deteriorating at a faster pace than expected. Stock depreciation and government bond yields declined in the US market on the 2nd, and the dollar yen temporarily fell to the 145 yen range.
As the unemployment rate rose, it reached a figure that serves as a guideline for starting a recession according to the “Sam Rules” devised by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm. The rule has shown perfect effectiveness over the past 50 years. Mr. Sam said on Bloomberg Radio after the current employment statistics were announced that the United States has not fallen into a recession, but “it is not moving in a good direction.” Goldman raised the probability of a “limited” US recession to 25%. (Bloomberg)
Note that the July ISM non-manufacturing PMI is scheduled to be announced on the 5th of this week. After the same manufacturing PMI announced on the 1st fell short of expectations, employment statistics etc. were also weak thereafter, so a sense of caution is growing. Meanwhile, if the non-manufacturing PMI shows strength, supporting a solid service industry as has been the trend so far, there is a possibility that it will bring some relief to the market.
Rumors that NVIDIA lags behind the latest AI semiconductor Blackwell, the company says “the situation has not changed”
The technology news site “The Information” quoted information from industry sources on the 3rd (local time) and reported that mass shipments of Blackwell B200 chips would be delayed by about 3 months. Production of Blackwell was expected to begin in 2024/10. An NVIDIA spokesperson told Barron's magazine, “Extensive sampling of Blackwell has begun, and production is expected to increase in the second half of the year. I will not comment on any further rumors,” he said, and said that the company's situation has not changed. (Barron's magazine)
Berkshire nearly halves Apple stock holdings
The US investment company Berkshire Hathaway, led by famous investor Warren Buffett, is in stock sale mode. The company revealed on the 3rd that it sold about half of its Apple shares for the fiscal year ending April-6 (2nd quarter).
Other major news
☆ Tesla sales in China increased 15% year over year in July
Vehicle sales in China grew in July by US electric vehicle (EV) giant Tesla, as a result of government subsidies. The trade-in subsidy program for EVs and hybrid vehicles (HVs) actively promoted by the Chinese government boosted demand.
☆ Mr. Wood's flagship ETF acquires a large amount of Moderna shares and falls sharply
The flagship ETF (exchange-traded fund) “Arc Innovation ETF” by famous investor Cathy Wood has additionally acquired a large amount of Moderna shares from US biopharmaceutical manufacturers.
☆ Chevron's stock price falls short of expectations for the April-6 fiscal year
Japanese stock ADR has a general sales advantage; Chicago is 34950 yen lower than Osaka by 970 yen
Japanese ADR (American Depositary Securities) shares fell in comparison with the Tokyo Stock Exchange (converted to 146.57 yen per dollar), Japan Post Bank ＜7182 ＞, Nintendo ＜7974＞, Japan Tobacco Industry ＜2914＞, Mitsubishi Electric ＜6503＞, MS&AD Insi HD ＜8725＞, Mitsubishi UFJFG ＜8306＞, Renesas ＜6723＞, etc. fell, and general sales dominance became dominant. The Chicago Nikkei 225 futures settlement value is 34,950 yen, which is 970 yen lower than the Osaka daytime ratio.
Concerns about the deterioration of the US economy intensified, stock depreciation and government bond yields declined, and the dollar yen was in the 145 yen range at one point
The number of people employed in the non-farm sector in July was 0.114 million, which was significantly lower than market expectations. The unemployment rate also exceeded expectations and rose to 4.3%. Concerns about economic deterioration intensified in response to the labor market deteriorating at a faster pace than expected. Stock depreciation and government bond yields declined in the US market on the 2nd, and the dollar yen temporarily fell to the 145 yen range.
As the unemployment rate rose, it reached a figure that serves as a guideline for starting a recession according to the “Sam Rules” devised by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm. The rule has shown perfect effectiveness over the past 50 years. Mr. Sam said on Bloomberg Radio after the current employment statistics were announced that the United States has not fallen into a recession, but “it is not moving in a good direction.” Goldman raised the probability of a “limited” US recession to 25%. (Bloomberg)
Note that the July ISM non-manufacturing PMI is scheduled to be announced on the 5th of this week. After the same manufacturing PMI announced on the 1st fell short of expectations, employment statistics etc. were also weak thereafter, so a sense of caution is growing. Meanwhile, if the non-manufacturing PMI shows strength, supporting a solid service industry as has been the trend so far, there is a possibility that it will bring some relief to the market.
Rumors that NVIDIA lags behind the latest AI semiconductor Blackwell, the company says “the situation has not changed”
The technology news site “The Information” quoted information from industry sources on the 3rd (local time) and reported that mass shipments of Blackwell B200 chips would be delayed by about 3 months. Production of Blackwell was expected to begin in 2024/10. An NVIDIA spokesperson told Barron's magazine, “Extensive sampling of Blackwell has begun, and production is expected to increase in the second half of the year. I will not comment on any further rumors,” he said, and said that the company's situation has not changed. (Barron's magazine)
Berkshire nearly halves Apple stock holdings
The US investment company Berkshire Hathaway, led by famous investor Warren Buffett, is in stock sale mode. The company revealed on the 3rd that it sold about half of its Apple shares for the fiscal year ending April-6 (2nd quarter).
Other major news
☆ Tesla sales in China increased 15% year over year in July
Vehicle sales in China grew in July by US electric vehicle (EV) giant Tesla, as a result of government subsidies. The trade-in subsidy program for EVs and hybrid vehicles (HVs) actively promoted by the Chinese government boosted demand.
☆ Mr. Wood's flagship ETF acquires a large amount of Moderna shares and falls sharply
The flagship ETF (exchange-traded fund) “Arc Innovation ETF” by famous investor Cathy Wood has additionally acquired a large amount of Moderna shares from US biopharmaceutical manufacturers.
☆ Chevron's stock price falls short of expectations for the April-6 fiscal year
Japanese stock ADR has a general sales advantage; Chicago is 34950 yen lower than Osaka by 970 yen
Japanese ADR (American Depositary Securities) shares fell in comparison with the Tokyo Stock Exchange (converted to 146.57 yen per dollar), Japan Post Bank ＜7182 ＞, Nintendo ＜7974＞, Japan Tobacco Industry ＜2914＞, Mitsubishi Electric ＜6503＞, MS&AD Insi HD ＜8725＞, Mitsubishi UFJFG ＜8306＞, Renesas ＜6723＞, etc. fell, and general sales dominance became dominant. The Chicago Nikkei 225 futures settlement value is 34,950 yen, which is 970 yen lower than the Osaka daytime ratio.
“Shares bought!” on the 2nd of the previous weekend Total Zalai — What are the expected stocks leading up to today? ―Japanese stocks
<9766><4503>Nichi-Ham, <2282>Konami G, Astellas, etc.
MOOMOO SECURITIES COLUMN ARTICLES
・AI stocks are fluctuating! Has the biggest mountain reached? Amid NVIDIA's sharp decline, what are the high retrograde stocks
・Japanese stocks have plummeted to the level of a “disaster”! How about the lower price? Will vigilance continue even after the first round of sales
・Nippon Gold Medal Rush! Top 5 Paris Olympics brands! Can we aim for a double ?$#@$ due to a sharp drop in the market price?
・What triggered a stock price reversal due to an increase in NTT's 1Q financial results? Is it moving forward to 14 consecutive dividend increases[Earnings Preview]
<9766><4503>Nichi-Ham, <2282>Konami G, Astellas, etc.
MOOMOO SECURITIES COLUMN ARTICLES
・AI stocks are fluctuating! Has the biggest mountain reached? Amid NVIDIA's sharp decline, what are the high retrograde stocks
・Japanese stocks have plummeted to the level of a “disaster”! How about the lower price? Will vigilance continue even after the first round of sales
・Nippon Gold Medal Rush! Top 5 Paris Olympics brands! Can we aim for a double ?$#@$ due to a sharp drop in the market price?
・What triggered a stock price reversal due to an increase in NTT's 1Q financial results? Is it moving forward to 14 consecutive dividend increases[Earnings Preview]
Tokyo Stock Exchange Rate Forecast
Stock exchange rate forecast for the 5th = continued sharp decline, even if it breaks to the 35,000 yen level all at once
Stock exchange rate forecast for the 5th = continued sharp decline, even if it breaks to the 35,000 yen level all at once
Foreign substitutes
Key Market Events
![[Morning Report] Will Berkshire and Apple almost halve to 145 yen due to deterioration in US employment, will NVIDIA's latest AI semiconductors be delayed?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20240805/1722809839447-02f4da3011.png/big?area=105&is_public=true)
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