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【Morning report】Justified expectation of rate cut due to CPI deceleration, rotation towards selling high-tech stocks and underperforming stocks. The USD/JPY sharply declined.

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moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Jul 12, 2024 07:13
【Morning report】Justified expectation of rate cut due to CPI deceleration, rotation towards selling high-tech stocks and underperforming stocks. The USD/JPY sha...
Good morning to all Moomoo users!Here are the key points of this morning's report.
● [Tokyo Stock Market Forecast Range] 150,000 to 200,000 yen (closing price on the 11th: 2224.02 yen)
● US CPI gives confidence to the Fed, July FOMC meeting is worth paying attention to
● Rotation in the US stock market: Justifying rate cuts with decelerating CPI, selling high-tech stocks and buying underperforming stocks
● Dollar-yen plunges in response to US CPI, report of intervention by the Ministry of Finance
● Democratic Party in the US expands calls for 'taking down Biden'
● Selling pressure on Tesla as news spreads about postponement of robotaxi announcement to October
Apple and the EU reach a settlement regarding payment services, ending antitrust investigation.
-moomoo News Amelia
Market Overview
In the US stock market on the 11th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to rise by $32.39 to $0.03 million9753.75, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 364.041 points to $0.01 million8283.407. On the 12th, the Tokyo stock market is expected to see a wide range of selling, including major stocks, and the Nikkei Stock Average is likely to fall significantly. The rapid appreciation of the yen in the foreign exchange market is expected to trigger profit-taking selling, particularly in the high-tech sector.
Top News
US CPI gives confidence to the Fed, July FOMC is worth watching for rate cuts.
Today, the June US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was announced, showing a lower-than-expected figure and indicating a continued slowdown in inflation following April and May. The deceleration of housing expenses is also notable, providing the Fed with confidence for rate cuts.

Possibility of US rate cuts, but no specific timing=SF Federal Reserve President.
Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, suggested that while a rate cut may be justified in the near future, there is little intention to support it at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the end of this month.
Related articles:San Francisco Fed President believes that interest rate adjustments are likely to be justified

Rotation in the US stock market: Justifying rate cuts with CPI slowdown, selling tech stocks & buying laggards
June's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed down more than expected, leading to increased speculation of a rate cut in September. On the US stock market on the 11th, a major rotation occurred. Investors sold large-cap tech stocks and bought laggard stocks, ranging from capital goods stocks to small-cap stocks. Due to the anticipation of an imminent rate cut, US Treasury yields decreased. In a reversal from before, buying flooded into stocks expected to benefit from lower interest rates. The Nasdaq index fell 1.95%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX Index) fell 3.47%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 rose 3.57%.

In individual stocks, Tesla (TSLA) dropped 8.4% due to the postponement of the RoboTaxi event. Apple (AAPL) dropped 2.3%. It was reported that they reached a settlement with the European Union (EU) by allowing competing companies to access their payment technology. Semiconductor stocks were weak, with Nvidia down 5.6% and Qualcomm (QCOM) down 4.3%. Delta Airlines (DAL) fell 4.0% due to disappointing earnings outlook. On the other hand, KB Home (KBH), a residential construction company, rose 10% due to lower mortgage rates. Pfizer (PFE), a pharmaceutical company, rose 1.1% due to advances in obesity treatment drug development. Lucid (LCID), a luxury EV manufacturer, rose 7.9% on expectations of a long-term partnership with a Saudi government fund. MicroStrategy (MSTR), a cryptocurrency-related company, rose 4.1% due to the announcement of a stock split. Japanese ADRs generally performed weakly.

USD/JPY sharply dropped following US CPI data, with reports suggesting intervention by the Ministry of Finance
USD/JPY sharply dropped in the New York foreign exchange market on the 11th. The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in below expectations, justifying expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which led to a sharp drop in US Treasury yields and the USD/JPY exchange rate. The rate quickly dropped from around 161.50 yen before the announcement to around 157.45 yen. Some reports indicated that the Ministry of Finance intervened, citing government officials. In response to these reports, Finance Minister Kanda stated that he was not in a position to comment on intervention.
Related article:Strong Expectations for a Strong Dollar, U.S. Exceptionalism Still Surrounds the Dollar
The morning USD/JPY is around 158.90, and is in the 157.40 range in overseas markets.

U.S. Democratic Party Sees Growing Calls to 'Overthrow Biden'
Joe Biden, the U.S. President, and his team were forced to respond on the 11th to prevent the dissent within the Democratic Party from growing into a major force. Voters and fellow legislators are concerned about Biden's continuation of the election and serving a second term.

Sells on Tesla, Announcement of Robo-Taxi Delayed to October
Tesla is sharply down. It is said that the announcement of the robot taxi that was scheduled for August is planned to be delayed to October, which is causing concern. Bloomberg reported this as information from sources. The purpose is to give the team working on this project more time to produce further prototypes.

Apple and EU Settle Dispute Over Payment Services, End of German Antitrust Investigation
The European Union (EU) has expressed the view that it has sufficiently addressed concerns under competition law (antitrust law) regarding Apple's decision to allow other companies' mobile wallets and payment services to use the technology of its own mobile payment service, Apple Pay. As a result, the long-standing investigation into Apple Pay has concluded.

MicroStrategy announced a 10-for-1 stock split, causing an increase in its stock price.
MicroStrategy, a cryptocurrency-related company, saw an increase in its stock price. It announced a stock split of 1 share for 10 shares before trading began. This split applies to both Class A and Class B common stock and will be implemented for shareholders as of the close of business on August 1st.

Stocks that were bought the previous day! - Which stocks are expected today? -
Companies like Takakyu <8166>, Eisai <4523>, and Murata Manufacturing <6981>.
Foreign exchange
Major market events
【Morning report】Justified expectation of rate cut due to CPI deceleration, rotation towards selling high-tech stocks and underperforming stocks. The USD/JPY sha...
Source: Dow Jones, MINKABU, Bloomberg, Wealth Advisor, Fisco
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more
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