【Morning Report】"S&P500 could fall 10%" vs "Low potential for bearish market", Oracle hits all-time high
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Here are the key points from the morning session report today.![]()
Tokyo stock market forecast range: 0.035800 million yen - 0.036300 million yen (closing price on the 10th: 0.036159 million yen 16 sen)
The future of US stocks: UBS says 'S&P500 could fall by 10%', GS says 'possibility of bearish market entry is low'
Oracle updates its all-time high with strong financial performance
Bank stocks like JP Morgan are down, 'analyst estimates are too optimistic'
●Apple to record tax expenses of up to 10 billion dollars as European court supports past judgment
Google's fine of 2.4 billion euros, also supported by the European Court of Justice.
●Another big week of events: presidential debate, Nvidia CEO's statement, CPI
●Fed to cut rates next week, 69% probability of 0.25% rate cut, 31% probability of 0.5% rate cut
- Moomoo news Julie
The future of US stocks: UBS says 'S&P500 could fall by 10%', GS says 'possibility of bearish market entry is low'
Oracle updates its all-time high with strong financial performance
Bank stocks like JP Morgan are down, 'analyst estimates are too optimistic'
●Apple to record tax expenses of up to 10 billion dollars as European court supports past judgment
Google's fine of 2.4 billion euros, also supported by the European Court of Justice.
●Another big week of events: presidential debate, Nvidia CEO's statement, CPI
●Fed to cut rates next week, 69% probability of 0.25% rate cut, 31% probability of 0.5% rate cut
- Moomoo news Julie
Market Overview
On the 10th, in the US stock market, the NY Dow average stock price fell by $92.63 to $0.0473696, and the Nasdaq Composite Index was up 141.277 points to 17025.880. On the 11th in the Tokyo stock market, the Nikkei average stock price is expected to be at a standstill. The Chicago Nikkei 225 futures settlement value is $10 lower at 36,140 yen compared to Osaka daytime.
On the 10th, in the US stock market, the NY Dow average stock price fell by $92.63 to $0.0473696, and the Nasdaq Composite Index was up 141.277 points to 17025.880. On the 11th in the Tokyo stock market, the Nikkei average stock price is expected to be at a standstill. The Chicago Nikkei 225 futures settlement value is $10 lower at 36,140 yen compared to Osaka daytime.
Top News
Outlook for US stocks: UBS says 'S&P500 could drop 10%', GS says 'Low likelihood of entering bearish market'
According to Bloomberg, the strategist responsible for US stock derivatives at UBS believes there is at least a 10% chance of the S&P500 index falling from its peak within a month, and tactically bearish for the next 2 months.
Goldman Sachs strategists predict a low possibility of a 20% or more significant decline in US stocks. They mentioned that while there is a potential for stock prices to fall towards the end of the year due to rising valuations, mixed growth prospects, and policy uncertainties, the likelihood of entering a full bearish market is small, as the 'healthy private sector' is to some extent supporting the economy.
Oracle hits record high on strong earnings
US software giant $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ reached an all-time high on September 10th.
Related article:Oracle, reach all-time high with AI! Contract balance is at a record high, and new partnership with Amazon! [Summary of financial results]
Outlook for US stocks: UBS says 'S&P500 could drop 10%', GS says 'Low likelihood of entering bearish market'
According to Bloomberg, the strategist responsible for US stock derivatives at UBS believes there is at least a 10% chance of the S&P500 index falling from its peak within a month, and tactically bearish for the next 2 months.
Goldman Sachs strategists predict a low possibility of a 20% or more significant decline in US stocks. They mentioned that while there is a potential for stock prices to fall towards the end of the year due to rising valuations, mixed growth prospects, and policy uncertainties, the likelihood of entering a full bearish market is small, as the 'healthy private sector' is to some extent supporting the economy.
Oracle hits record high on strong earnings
US software giant $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ reached an all-time high on September 10th.
Related article:Oracle, reach all-time high with AI! Contract balance is at a record high, and new partnership with Amazon! [Summary of financial results]
Bank stocks such as JP Morgan are cheap, and analysts' forecasts are too optimistic.
Bank stocks were weak in the U.S. stock market on the 10th. $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ The CEO said that analysts' forecasts for next year's expenses and net interest income are too optimistic. $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ forecasts that the investment bank's performance will fall below market expectations. The previous day, $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ CEO of indicated that the trading department may see a 10% decline in profit for the July-September quarter. On the 10th, the stock prices fell by 5.2%, 0.5%, and 4.4% respectively.
Apple to record maximum tax expense of $10 billion, as European court supports previous rulings.
$Apple (AAPL.US)$ announced that it plans to record a maximum of approximately $10 billion as a temporary corporate tax expense, in response to the European Court of Justice supporting previous rulings on taxation related to its business in Ireland. On the 10th, the stock price fell by 0.36%.
Related article:Apple continues to decline, losing in the EU's highest court in a trial over Ireland's back tax.
A fine of 2.4 billion euros on Google is supported by the European Court of Justice.
The EU's antitrust authority on the fine of 2.4 billion 20 million euros imposed on Google, a US sub-entity. $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ The European Court of Justice has made a ruling in support of the sanction of 2.4 billion euros (approximately 380 billion yen) imposed on Google. The stock price on the 10th fell by only 0.03%.
Another big week of events: presidential debate, NVIDIA CEO statement, CPI
● On the night of the 10th, the Democratic candidate for the US presidential election, Vice President Harris, and the Republican candidate, former President Trump, will hold a debate. Attention will be paid to the policy direction shown by Mr. Harris compared to Mr. Trump, whose policy direction is to some extent 'known'. Some strategists pointed out that it is unlikely that the method of US policy will change significantly due to the election, and there is no need to overly interpret its impact on the stock market.
● $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Mr. Jensen Juan is scheduled to speak at a Goldman Sachs conference in San Francisco on the 11th and have a discussion with the Goldman Sachs CEO. Bloomberg noted that the focus will be on whether there will be any mention of the delay of Blackwell (Nvidia's latest AI semiconductor).
On the 11th, the CPI for August will be announced. Market expectations are for a slowdown from 2.9% year-on-year in July to 2.5%. It will be interesting to see if this strengthens the case for a rate cut in September.
Bank stocks were weak in the U.S. stock market on the 10th. $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ The CEO said that analysts' forecasts for next year's expenses and net interest income are too optimistic. $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ forecasts that the investment bank's performance will fall below market expectations. The previous day, $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ CEO of indicated that the trading department may see a 10% decline in profit for the July-September quarter. On the 10th, the stock prices fell by 5.2%, 0.5%, and 4.4% respectively.
Apple to record maximum tax expense of $10 billion, as European court supports previous rulings.
$Apple (AAPL.US)$ announced that it plans to record a maximum of approximately $10 billion as a temporary corporate tax expense, in response to the European Court of Justice supporting previous rulings on taxation related to its business in Ireland. On the 10th, the stock price fell by 0.36%.
Related article:Apple continues to decline, losing in the EU's highest court in a trial over Ireland's back tax.
A fine of 2.4 billion euros on Google is supported by the European Court of Justice.
The EU's antitrust authority on the fine of 2.4 billion 20 million euros imposed on Google, a US sub-entity. $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ The European Court of Justice has made a ruling in support of the sanction of 2.4 billion euros (approximately 380 billion yen) imposed on Google. The stock price on the 10th fell by only 0.03%.
Another big week of events: presidential debate, NVIDIA CEO statement, CPI
● On the night of the 10th, the Democratic candidate for the US presidential election, Vice President Harris, and the Republican candidate, former President Trump, will hold a debate. Attention will be paid to the policy direction shown by Mr. Harris compared to Mr. Trump, whose policy direction is to some extent 'known'. Some strategists pointed out that it is unlikely that the method of US policy will change significantly due to the election, and there is no need to overly interpret its impact on the stock market.
● $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Mr. Jensen Juan is scheduled to speak at a Goldman Sachs conference in San Francisco on the 11th and have a discussion with the Goldman Sachs CEO. Bloomberg noted that the focus will be on whether there will be any mention of the delay of Blackwell (Nvidia's latest AI semiconductor).
On the 11th, the CPI for August will be announced. Market expectations are for a slowdown from 2.9% year-on-year in July to 2.5%. It will be interesting to see if this strengthens the case for a rate cut in September.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next week, with a 69% probability of a 0.25% rate cut and a 31% probability of a 0.5% rate cut.
(As of 8:00 a.m. on September 11)
(As of 8:00 a.m. on September 11)
Foreign Exchange
Major market events
Source: Dow Jones, MINKABU, Bloomberg, Wealth Advisor, Fisco
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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