[Morning Report] nvidia regains the throne. S&P 500 is in overbought territory. USD/JPY is in the 150 yen range.

Good morning to all Moomoo users!Here are the key points of the early morning report today.

●[Tokyo Stock Market Price Range Forecast] 8800-9200 yen (+8954.60 yen as of the 21st)
●Nvidia returns as a champion, setting a record high in performance expectations
●Optimistic views on performance are at an all-time high
●S&P500 index, is the upside limited from a valuation perspective?
The sharp rise in US bond yields may further boost the strength of the dollar and weaken the yen, leading to the USD/JPY reaching the 150 yen level.
Microsoft announces AI agent.
Qualcomm announces new smartphone processors, with the stock price's reaction being limited.
- Moomoo News Julie

On the 21st, the USA market saw a slight decline in the S&P500 index. After a 6-week consecutive increase until last week and with 1/5 of companies announcing earnings reports this week, profit-taking sales were driven by the rise in the yield of the 10-year US bonds. Sectors sensitive to interest rate increases such as real estate and utilities led the decline. While Nvidia reached an all-time high, the SOX index and the Nasdaq 100 index saw a slight increase.
In the Tokyo stock market on the 22nd, despite the mix of buying and selling, the Nikkei Stock Average is likely to show resilient price action near the previous day's closing price.

Optimistic views on performance are at an all-time high.
The early stages of U.S. stock earnings have started on a positive note led by stronger-than-expected financial sector earnings. This week, 1/5 of the companies in the S&P 500 index, including Tesla, are scheduled to announce earnings. Next week will see a concentration of earnings from other tech giants like the 'Magnificent 7.'
According to Bloomberg's survey, optimistic views on the performance of S&P 500 index constituents have reached a record high. The positive performance of financial sector earnings in the early stages suggests continued stock market highs in 2025, based on past data.

Is the upside of the S&P500 index limited from a valuation perspective?
With the continued rise in stock prices, the valuation of the S&P500 index is trading well above historical averages. From a valuation standpoint, the upside potential has become limited.
Goldman Sachs strategists believe that it will be difficult for the S&P500 index to maintain outperforming the average performance of the past 10 years. They expected that the annual nominal total return would remain at 3% over the next 10 years.

The yield spread between the S&P500 index and 10-year Treasury yields has narrowed, indicating that stocks are gradually losing their advantage over bonds.