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[Morning Report] The decisive moment to influence US stocks has arrived - are CPI and FRB interest rate predictions a risk factor or is the yen falling to the 145 yen range against the dollar

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moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Dec 10, 2023 17:05
[Morning Report] The decisive moment to influence US stocks has arrived - are CPI and FRB interest rate predictions a risk factor or is the yen falling to the 1...
Good morning to all Moomoo users!Here are the key points of this morning's first report.
● [Tokyo Stock Exchange Rate Forecast Range] 32,300 yen to 32,800 yen (8th closing price 32,307 yen 86 yen)
●The decisive moment that will affect US stocks has arrived - are CPI and FRB interest rate predictions risk factors
● The fate of the S&P 500 and the realization of growth in AI-related profits by major high-tech companies are key
● US administration to continue replenishing strategic oil reserves next year
● The yen fell to the 145 yen level against the dollar, and observations of early US interest rate cuts receded due to strong employment
● EU agrees on a comprehensive regulation plan for AI technology such as ChatGPT - sanctions if it is a violation
ー MooMoo News Mark
Market Overview
In the US stock market on the 8th, the NY Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to rise to 36,247 dollars 87 cents, 130 dollars 49 cents higher than the previous business day. The Nasdaq Composite Stock Price Index rose 63.979 points to 14,403.973. There is a high possibility that the Nikkei Stock Average will rebound for the first time in 3 days, with a wide range of buybacks progressing in the Tokyo stock market on the 11th, centered on major stocks.
Top news
The decisive moment that will affect US stocks has arrived - are CPI and FRB interest rate predictions risk factors
Investors are entering a critical week. In addition to the notable US consumer price index (CPI) being announced on the 12th, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decisions will be revealed on the 13th (14th a.m. Japan time), and it is expected that it will direct the stock market and economy in 2024.
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The Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting on the 18th to 19th. Observations that the negative interest rate policy will be lifted have also surfaced in the market, but unlike previous policy changes in the direction of mitigation, it means interest rate hikes for the first time in 17 years, and the economy as a whole will be affected. The Bank of Japan is trying to take a stab at focusing on dialogue, which carefully proceeds with leveling the ground from surprise routes, but there is also a risk that unfamiliar dialogues will lead to excessive market reactions.
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In the US University of Michigan Consumer Survey (preliminary figures) in December, the sentiment index improved greatly, exceeding all market expectations. Inflation expectations for the year ahead fell sharply for the first time in 22 years.
The fate of the S&P 500 and the realization of growth in AI-related profits by major high-tech companies are key
It seems that the fate of the US S&P 500 stock price index will increasingly depend on whether some major high-tech companies can lead investments in artificial intelligence (AI) to further profit growth in the future. This year, seven companies, including Microsoft and NVIDIA, contributed about three-fourths of the total rise in the S&P 500.
US administration to continue replenishing strategic oil reserves next year
The US Department of Energy announced on the 8th that it will solicit a maximum of 3 million barrels for delivery to strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) in 2024/3. After President Joe Biden announced a historic release of 180 million barrels in the spring of 2022, the department is proceeding with the replenishment of oil reserves.
The yen fell to the 145 yen level against the dollar, and observations of early US interest rate cuts receded due to strong employment
On the morning of the 11th, the exchange rate of yen in the Tokyo Foreign Exchange Market was in the dollar = 145 yen range, falling from the evening of the previous weekend to fluctuating. Employment statistics announced on the 8th show the steadiness of the US labor market, and it is expected that early interest rate cut observations will retreat, US interest rates will rise, and it will take over the trend where dollars were bought. If revisions are made to the Bank of Japan's early negative interest rate cancellation observations, yen sales pressure will occur, and it is likely that dollar appreciation and yen depreciation will progress.
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Key Market Events
[Morning Report] The decisive moment to influence US stocks has arrived - are CPI and FRB interest rate predictions a risk factor or is the yen falling to the 1...
Distribution source: Dow Jones, MINKABU, Bloomberg, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Weiss Advisors
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more
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