Early Morning Report: 'Trump rally' takes a breather, Tesla down 6% while Nvidia is up 2%. U.S. 10-year treasury notes yield rises, focus on CPI tonight.
Hello Moomoo users, good morning!![]()
The key points of the morning report today are as follows.![]()
●【Tokyo Stock Market Forecast Range】8,900-9,500 points (Closing on the 12th at 9,376.09 points)
FRB, December rate cut depends on data, says Minneapolis Fed President.
【CPI Preview】Is escaping inflation difficult? U.S. October CPI scheduled for Wednesday night.
Speculation of slowing rate cuts as U.S. economic outlook improves, dollar continues to rise with long-term interest rates.
10-year Treasury yield breaks through major resistance level towards 5%.
Market capitalization recovers to 1 trillion dollars! Will surpass TSMC, is Tesla's comeback real? What is the truth beyond the "Trump effect"?
U.S. stocks - Material stocks: Apple, Shopify, etc.
Earnings report: Toshiba Electronic's net profit increases by 77.4% year-on-year to 243.903 billion yen, with share buyback capped at 70 billion yen.
Mitsubishi UFJ, one step higher if upward revision, share buyback, and dividend increase come together?!
moomoo news with Julie
FRB, December rate cut depends on data, says Minneapolis Fed President.
【CPI Preview】Is escaping inflation difficult? U.S. October CPI scheduled for Wednesday night.
Speculation of slowing rate cuts as U.S. economic outlook improves, dollar continues to rise with long-term interest rates.
10-year Treasury yield breaks through major resistance level towards 5%.
Market capitalization recovers to 1 trillion dollars! Will surpass TSMC, is Tesla's comeback real? What is the truth beyond the "Trump effect"?
U.S. stocks - Material stocks: Apple, Shopify, etc.
Earnings report: Toshiba Electronic's net profit increases by 77.4% year-on-year to 243.903 billion yen, with share buyback capped at 70 billion yen.
Mitsubishi UFJ, one step higher if upward revision, share buyback, and dividend increase come together?!
moomoo news with Julie
Market Overview
◇On the 12th, the major indices in the US market fell slightly. With the CPI announcement approaching on the 13th, bond yields rose, and buying after the election subsided. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ There was profit-taking selling seen in Trump trade, with a 6% decline. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ It rose by 2%, supporting the index.
◇ On the 13th, the Tokyo stock market showed restraint in buying across the board, including leading stocks, and there is a high likelihood of a continued decline in the Nikkei Stock Average. However, it is expected that there will be a limited downside, with a standoff in the low 30,000 yen range.
◇ On the 13th, the Tokyo stock market showed restraint in buying across the board, including leading stocks, and there is a high likelihood of a continued decline in the Nikkei Stock Average. However, it is expected that there will be a limited downside, with a standoff in the low 30,000 yen range.
Top News
Federal Reserve Bank (FRB): December rate cut depends on data, says Minneapolis Fed President
Neil Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, stated on CBS's 'Face The Nation' that the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) will decide on whether to implement an additional rate cut in December based on upcoming economic indicators.
Kashkari mentioned, 'There is a view that there will be another rate cut in December. However, it is necessary to confirm the actual data before reaching a conclusion.'
Federal Reserve Bank (FRB): December rate cut depends on data, says Minneapolis Fed President
Neil Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, stated on CBS's 'Face The Nation' that the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) will decide on whether to implement an additional rate cut in December based on upcoming economic indicators.
Kashkari mentioned, 'There is a view that there will be another rate cut in December. However, it is necessary to confirm the actual data before reaching a conclusion.'
【CPI Preview: Is Deflation Difficult to Escape? The U.S. October CPI is scheduled to be announced on Wednesday night.
● The U.S. Department of Labor is scheduled to announce the October U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 22:30 on Wednesday, November 13, Japan time.
● Due to the gradual decline in service prices and the re-rise in commodity prices, the market consensus for Core CPI is expected to increase by 0.3% compared to the previous month, and Headline CPI is expected to increase by 0.2% compared to the previous month.
● On a year-on-year basis, the market expects Headline CPI to rise by 2.6% (compared to the previous month's 2.4% increase).
● The U.S. Department of Labor is scheduled to announce the October U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 22:30 on Wednesday, November 13, Japan time.
● Due to the gradual decline in service prices and the re-rise in commodity prices, the market consensus for Core CPI is expected to increase by 0.3% compared to the previous month, and Headline CPI is expected to increase by 0.2% compared to the previous month.
● On a year-on-year basis, the market expects Headline CPI to rise by 2.6% (compared to the previous month's 2.4% increase).
Improvement in the U.S. economic outlook leads to a slowdown in rate cuts, and with long-term interest rates rising, the dollar continues to strengthen.
● Barkin, President of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank: "The U.S. economy is quite strong, but monitoring weaknesses in the labor market." "Inflation is under control, but with persistent risks of exceeding the target."
● U.S. 10-year Treasury notes yield: 4.320% ⇒ 4.429%, USD/JPY in the mid-154 yen range
● Barkin, President of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank: "The U.S. economy is quite strong, but monitoring weaknesses in the labor market." "Inflation is under control, but with persistent risks of exceeding the target."
● U.S. 10-year Treasury notes yield: 4.320% ⇒ 4.429%, USD/JPY in the mid-154 yen range
The 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 5% by breaking through the major resistance level.
●On the 12th, the yield of 10-year government bonds moved towards breaking through another important resistance level. If that happens, the 5% level will be within reach, posing a potential problem for stock investors.
●The resistance level is the level at which potential buyers of government bonds are expected to enter. When the yield of 10-year bonds surpasses the resistance level, it means that buyers have no intention of entering at that level.
●According to Lawrence Gillam, the bond strategist at LPL Financial, if the yield exceeds 4.5%, the only remaining obstacle before reaching 5% would be the 4.66% resistance level. (Market Watch)
●On the 12th, the yield of 10-year government bonds moved towards breaking through another important resistance level. If that happens, the 5% level will be within reach, posing a potential problem for stock investors.
●The resistance level is the level at which potential buyers of government bonds are expected to enter. When the yield of 10-year bonds surpasses the resistance level, it means that buyers have no intention of entering at that level.
●According to Lawrence Gillam, the bond strategist at LPL Financial, if the yield exceeds 4.5%, the only remaining obstacle before reaching 5% would be the 4.66% resistance level. (Market Watch)
Dollar-yen, also trying at 155 yen at once, the Trump trade continues = NY forex overview
●There is a persistent belief in a strong dollar due to the expectation of a higher dollar with the inauguration of the Trump administration next year. While there are concerns about inflation reigniting due to tax cuts and fiscal expansion, Trump's trade policy is not only concerning for China but also particularly for the Eurozone economy, supporting the idea of the United States as a sole power which in turn strengthens the dollar.
●Recent diminishing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have also propped up the dollar. In the short-term financial market, there is about a 65% probability of a rate cut in December FOMC, whereas last week before the presidential election and FOMC meeting, there was around an 80% probability of a rate cut.
●There is a persistent belief in a strong dollar due to the expectation of a higher dollar with the inauguration of the Trump administration next year. While there are concerns about inflation reigniting due to tax cuts and fiscal expansion, Trump's trade policy is not only concerning for China but also particularly for the Eurozone economy, supporting the idea of the United States as a sole power which in turn strengthens the dollar.
●Recent diminishing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have also propped up the dollar. In the short-term financial market, there is about a 65% probability of a rate cut in December FOMC, whereas last week before the presidential election and FOMC meeting, there was around an 80% probability of a rate cut.
Market cap recovers to 1 trillion dollars! Surpassing TSMC, Is Tesla's comeback real? The truth beyond the 'Trump effect'.
Recorded a cumulative increase rate of over 32% in 4 consecutive days of increase. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Rising to a market capitalization of 1.03 trillion dollars as of November 8, , returning to the 1 trillion dollar club for the first time since March 2022. In addition, on Monday (November 11), Tesla rose another 9%, surpassing Taiwan TSMC to rise to 7th place in the U.S. stock market by market capitalization.
Recorded a cumulative increase rate of over 32% in 4 consecutive days of increase. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Rising to a market capitalization of 1.03 trillion dollars as of November 8, , returning to the 1 trillion dollar club for the first time since March 2022. In addition, on Monday (November 11), Tesla rose another 9%, surpassing Taiwan TSMC to rise to 7th place in the U.S. stock market by market capitalization.
U.S. stocks and material stocks
◇ $Apple (AAPL.US)$ According to Bloomberg, they will soon introduce new product categories such as wall-mounted displays that can be moved between apps using AI, in addition to home appliance operation and video conferencing support.
◇ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ Rose by 0.3%. According to Bloomberg, ValueAct Capital Management acquired $1 billion worth of shares in Meta Platforms. These shares are passive, and ValueAct currently has no plans to engage with Meta as an activist.
◇ $Home Depot (HD.US)$ Dropped by 1.3%. In the August-October period, existing store revenues did not decline as expected, and earnings per share and revenue exceeded expectations. Full-year guidance was also revised upward, but concerns arose that this was due to temporary factors such as seasonality.
◇ $Shopify (SHOP.US)$ Rose by 21%. Sales in the July-September quarter exceeded expectations. Sales forecast for the October-December period also exceeded expectations.
◇ $Apple (AAPL.US)$ According to Bloomberg, they will soon introduce new product categories such as wall-mounted displays that can be moved between apps using AI, in addition to home appliance operation and video conferencing support.
◇ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ Rose by 0.3%. According to Bloomberg, ValueAct Capital Management acquired $1 billion worth of shares in Meta Platforms. These shares are passive, and ValueAct currently has no plans to engage with Meta as an activist.
◇ $Home Depot (HD.US)$ Dropped by 1.3%. In the August-October period, existing store revenues did not decline as expected, and earnings per share and revenue exceeded expectations. Full-year guidance was also revised upward, but concerns arose that this was due to temporary factors such as seasonality.
◇ $Shopify (SHOP.US)$ Rose by 21%. Sales in the July-September quarter exceeded expectations. Sales forecast for the October-December period also exceeded expectations.
[Financial Results Flash Report] Toshiba Electronics, net profit increased by 77.4% year-on-year to 243.903 billion yen, with a maximum of 70 billion yen for share buyback.
$Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$After the closing bell on November 12, the company announced its consolidated financial results for the second quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2025 (April-September 2024). The annual dividend for this fiscal year was revised upwards from the previous plan of 519 yen to 571 yen (compared to 393 yen in the previous period). They also announced a share buyback of 3.5 million shares worth 70 billion yen.
$Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$After the closing bell on November 12, the company announced its consolidated financial results for the second quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2025 (April-September 2024). The annual dividend for this fiscal year was revised upwards from the previous plan of 519 yen to 571 yen (compared to 393 yen in the previous period). They also announced a share buyback of 3.5 million shares worth 70 billion yen.
Mitsubishi UFJ, will the stock price rise if the upward revision, share buyback, and dividend increase are all in place? Rising interest rates and policy stock sales also provide tailwinds. [Earnings Preview]
● $Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP)$MUFG is scheduled to announce its interim (April-September) earnings for the 2025 fiscal year on November 14.
●The full-year net profit is expected to reach a record high for the second consecutive term at 1.5 trillion yen, with the progress rate already reaching 37% in the first quarter (April-June). Analysts expect the progress rate to reach about 80% at the interim results.
●In the past 10 years, the company has announced share buybacks 9 times at the time of interim results announcement, and whether it will implement share buybacks against the backdrop of strong performance this time is attracting attention. It may reach the scale of the previous fiscal year's record high of 400 billion yen.
●Based on the shareholder return policy aiming for a dividend payout ratio of about 40%, assuming profits continue to accumulate at the same pace as the first quarter, there is a calculation that there is room for an increase of 13 yen per share at both interim and year-end dividends.
● $Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP)$MUFG is scheduled to announce its interim (April-September) earnings for the 2025 fiscal year on November 14.
●The full-year net profit is expected to reach a record high for the second consecutive term at 1.5 trillion yen, with the progress rate already reaching 37% in the first quarter (April-June). Analysts expect the progress rate to reach about 80% at the interim results.
●In the past 10 years, the company has announced share buybacks 9 times at the time of interim results announcement, and whether it will implement share buybacks against the backdrop of strong performance this time is attracting attention. It may reach the scale of the previous fiscal year's record high of 400 billion yen.
●Based on the shareholder return policy aiming for a dividend payout ratio of about 40%, assuming profits continue to accumulate at the same pace as the first quarter, there is a calculation that there is room for an increase of 13 yen per share at both interim and year-end dividends.
ADR Japanese stock rankings - overall preference for selling, such as Yucho Bank.
Stocks that moved the previous day part1: BrainPad, Shimizu Construction, Musashi Seimitsu Kogyo, etc.
◇ $BrainPad (3655.JP)$ 965 +150: Operating profit in the first quarter increased by 66.2%.
◇ $Shimizu (1803.JP)$ 1236 +202: Raised earnings and dividend estimates for the fiscal year ending March 25. Share buyback and cancellation also announced.
◇ $Lasertec (6920.JP)$ 19170 -880: Cautious about U.S. semiconductor export restrictions to China.
◇ $RORZE (6323.JP)$ 2099 -106: Pressured by the decline in semiconductor manufacturing equipment stocks prices.
◇ $BrainPad (3655.JP)$ 965 +150: Operating profit in the first quarter increased by 66.2%.
◇ $Shimizu (1803.JP)$ 1236 +202: Raised earnings and dividend estimates for the fiscal year ending March 25. Share buyback and cancellation also announced.
◇ $Lasertec (6920.JP)$ 19170 -880: Cautious about U.S. semiconductor export restrictions to China.
◇ $RORZE (6323.JP)$ 2099 -106: Pressured by the decline in semiconductor manufacturing equipment stocks prices.
Foreign exchange
Key Market Events
Source: Dow Jones, MINKABU, Bloomberg, Wealth Advisor, Fisco
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
