Market Overview
In the US stock market on the 20th, the NY Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to rise for 3 days to 39,512 dollars 13 cents, which was 401 dollars 37 cents higher than the previous business day. The Nasdaq Composite Stock Price Index rose 202.617 points to 16,369.408. The risk-on trend continues in the Tokyo stock market on the 21st, and it is expected that the Nikkei Stock Average will target the middle of the 40,000 yen range.
大負けネコ(HYPER) : The current American stock price seems to be booming at first glance, with the S&P 500 hitting a high every day, but the February CPI (Consumer Price Index) announced the other day has risen to +3.1%, and in particular, gasoline is +3.8% and housing expenses are +0.4%, and it is said that these two alone account for 60% of the increase in the index.
Unlike Japan, it is an oil producing country, and its land area is large by digit, and furthermore, it is despite the appreciation of the dollar against almost all currencies.
Supported by high interest rates, deposit interest rates are about 5%, and government bonds are about 4% even for 5-year bonds. From the Japanese people's point of view, they are envious.
However, compared to a while ago, what is driving the rise in stock prices is biased towards semiconductor-related and AI, and stock prices such as conventional “dividend aristocrats” are unfortunate.
Seen from Japan, it can only be seen that “inflation is progressing further,” and the wealthy may be able to afford it, but it seems that the current high prices are quite severe for the middle class and the poor.
Therefore, the market consensus is that the Fed will comprehensively take these factors into account and cut interest rates by about 0.25% at an early stage.
At yesterday's meeting, interest rates were expected to be cut about 3 times this year. Since it is a relatively early period after April, when corporate financial results for the 2024 1Q are shown, we anticipate interest rate cuts in June.