【Morning report】 U.S. retail sales in September exceeded expectations with a significant 0.7% increase compared to the previous month. U.S. 2-year bond yields are at their highest level in 17 years.

Good morning to all moomoo users!Here are the key points of the early morning report today.
Tokyo stock market price forecast range: 31,800 yen - 32,200 yen (closing price on the 17th: 32,040.29 yen).
US retail sales in September increased by 0.7% compared to the previous month, significantly exceeding market expectations, with the core index rising by 0.6%.
Richmond Federal Reserve President: There is time to determine whether additional rate hikes are necessary.
US 2-year bond yield at a 17-year high level, speculation about rate hikes resurfacing.
There is a high possibility of the Bank of Japan's price outlook for fiscal year 2024 being revised upward to over 2% - according to sources.
The Federal Reserve has emerged victorious in the battle with American consumers - Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America.
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Market Overview
In the U.S. stock market on the 17th, the NY Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by $13.11 to $33,997.65, a slight increase for the third consecutive day compared to the previous trading day. The Nasdaq Composite Index was 34.237 points lower at 13,533.747. In the Tokyo stock market on the 18th, with mixed views of strength and weakness, the Nikkei Stock Average seems to be fluctuating around the previous day's closing price. Stock markets worldwide are showing signs of instability.

Top news
U.S. retail sales in September rose by 0.7% compared to the previous month, significantly exceeding market expectations, with the core index rising by 0.6%.
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on the 17th that September's retail sales (seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.7% compared to the previous month, significantly exceeding the market's 0.3% expectation, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth. The previous period was upwardly revised to 0.8%. Strong performance in automotive sales and online retail, with no confirmed economic slowdown. Retail sales account for about one-third of personal consumption and usually serve as a clue to the strength of the economy.

Richmond Fed President: There is time to determine whether additional rate hikes are necessary.
Richmond Fed President Barkin stated on the 17th that in returning inflation to the 2% target, there is time for policymakers to assess whether it may be possible to keep interest rates unchanged or if additional rate hikes are necessary. Barkin pointed out, "There is still a need to be confident about both signs of calming demand and emerging weakness in inflation."

U.S. 2-year bond yields reach a 17-year high as rate hike speculation resurfaces.
The new economic and price outlook report to be discussed at the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meeting on the 30th and 31st is likely to see a significant upward revision in the forecasted annual inflation rates for the 2023 and 2024 fiscal years (excluding fresh food core CPI). This was revealed through interviews with multiple sources.

There is a high possibility of a upward revision of over 2% in the Bank of Japan's price outlook for the fiscal year 2024 - sources.
The new economic and price outlook report to be discussed at the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meeting on the 30th and 31st is likely to see a significant upward revision in the forecasted annual inflation rates for the 2023 and 2024 fiscal years (excluding fresh food core CPI). This was revealed through interviews with multiple sources.

Bank of America (BofA) CEO Brian Moynihan stated on the 17th that the efforts of the U.S. monetary authorities to raise interest rates to combat inflation have successfully slowed U.S. personal consumption. Mr. Moynihan said in an interview with Bloomberg Television, "To put it bluntly, the U.S. monetary authorities have won the battle against U.S. consumers," and he added, "The question is what happens next."
Bank of America's CEO Brian Moynihan stated on the 17th that the efforts of U.S. monetary authorities to raise interest rates to combat inflation have successfully slowed U.S. personal consumption. Mr. Moynihan said in an interview with Bloomberg Television, "To put it bluntly, the U.S. monetary authorities have won the battle against U.S. consumers," and he added, "The question is what happens next."

Goldman Sachs reports strong trading performance - real estate investment losses are exerting pressure on profits. In the July-September (Q3), trading income exceeded analysts' expectations, but real estate investment valuation losses for the second consecutive quarter pushed profits down. A loss of $212 million in real estate investments, approximately 32 billion yen, was recorded, with an impact of $358 million in impairments, leading to a significant drop in net profit by 33%. Trading income was almost unchanged compared to the previous year, down 13% from analysts' expectations.
$Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$In the July-September (Q3) period, trading income exceeded analyst estimates, while losses in real estate investments continued to dampen profits for the second consecutive quarter. A loss of $212 million in real estate investments was recorded, approximately 32 billion yen, in addition to an impact of $358 million in impairments, resulting in a significant decline in net profits by 33%. Trading income was close to the level of the previous year, down 13% from analyst expectations.

Tokyo Stock Market Outlook
Outlook for the stock market on the 18th: Conflicting views of strength and weakness, leading to a directionless development.

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