[Morning Report] Is it time to buy the dips in the global stock market? Speculation of an emergency interest rate cut in the US is also emerging. USD/JPY is in the 141 yen range to the 145 yen range.
![[Morning Report] Is it time to buy the dips in the global stock market? Speculation of an emergency interest rate cut in the US is also emerging. USD/JPY is in ...](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20240806/1722893215756-76bcc772b9.png/big?area=105&is_public=true)
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Here are the key points of the morning news.
●[Tokyo Stock Market Forecast Range] 0.03 million2800 yen - 0.03 million3500 yen (closing price on the 5th 0.03 million1458 yen 42 sen)
●Global simultaneous stock market decline, risk-off due to concerns of US recession + sharp yen appreciation
●Despite concerns of US economic downturn, ISM non-manufacturing index shows recovery, risk-off & dollar selling easing
●Speculation of emergency rate cut in the US resurfaces, ISM non-manufacturing index improves in expansion range, increasing uncertainty
●Expectation for the Fed's interest rate cut within the year expands to 1.25 points
●Nvidia briefly falls below $100, negative sentiment due to expected delay in next-generation AI semiconductors
· Yesterday's 'bought stocks!' summary -What stocks are expected to continue? -Japanese stocks
－moomoo News Amelia
●Global simultaneous stock market decline, risk-off due to concerns of US recession + sharp yen appreciation
●Despite concerns of US economic downturn, ISM non-manufacturing index shows recovery, risk-off & dollar selling easing
●Speculation of emergency rate cut in the US resurfaces, ISM non-manufacturing index improves in expansion range, increasing uncertainty
●Expectation for the Fed's interest rate cut within the year expands to 1.25 points
●Nvidia briefly falls below $100, negative sentiment due to expected delay in next-generation AI semiconductors
· Yesterday's 'bought stocks!' summary -What stocks are expected to continue? -Japanese stocks
－moomoo News Amelia
Market Overview
In the U.S. stock market on the 5th, the NY Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the third consecutive trading day, closing down $1,033.99, or 0.0368703%, at $27.27, a significant decline. The NASDAQ Composite Index was down 576.082 points, or 0.016200.082. The Tokyo stock market on the 6th is expected to rebound in the near term, with the Nikkei Average likely to turn upward for the first time in four days.
In the U.S. stock market on the 5th, the NY Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the third consecutive trading day, closing down $1,033.99, or 0.0368703%, at $27.27, a significant decline. The NASDAQ Composite Index was down 576.082 points, or 0.016200.082. The Tokyo stock market on the 6th is expected to rebound in the near term, with the Nikkei Average likely to turn upward for the first time in four days.
Top News
Global stock market sell-off, concerns over a U.S. recession and a rapid rise in the yen leading to risk-off sentiment.
On the 5th, the Asian markets experienced a rapid rise in the yen and a sharp decline in Japanese stocks. Major stock indices in countries and regions with a high proportion of semiconductor stocks, such as South Korea and Taiwan, also fell by more than 8%, taking on the aspects of panic selling. The NASDAQ 100 Index futures followed the trend of the USD/JPY exchange rate and experienced a sharp decline during Asian trading hours. Subsequently, major stock indices in the United States also fell significantly during normal trading hours.
Global stock market sell-off, concerns over a U.S. recession and a rapid rise in the yen leading to risk-off sentiment.
On the 5th, the Asian markets experienced a rapid rise in the yen and a sharp decline in Japanese stocks. Major stock indices in countries and regions with a high proportion of semiconductor stocks, such as South Korea and Taiwan, also fell by more than 8%, taking on the aspects of panic selling. The NASDAQ 100 Index futures followed the trend of the USD/JPY exchange rate and experienced a sharp decline during Asian trading hours. Subsequently, major stock indices in the United States also fell significantly during normal trading hours.
Against the backdrop of concerns over a U.S. recession lingering since the end of last week, the rapid rise in the yen on the 5th affected carry trades. The rapid appreciation of the yen, which was more abrupt than expected, accelerated the unwinding of carry trades, which involve borrowing the Japanese yen to purchase high-yield assets. Many hedge funds had been invested in high-tech stocks such as M7 and semiconductors through yen carry trades, so the unwinding of these trades likely exacerbated the decline. There is also a high possibility that margin calls and forced unwinding of credit buy positions contributed to the decline. Additionally, in recent weeks, the sharp rise in the VIX index is said to have led to selling by systematic funds.
However, bearish individuals have not wavered in their cautious stance, but the market has begun to suggest that the recent sharp decline may be an overreaction. JP Morgan's trading desk has indicated that the rotation from high-tech may have almost ended, and that a tactical opportunity for buying the dip may be approaching (Bloomberg). With regard to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, there has been speculation of an emergency rate cut or even "verbal intervention".
Speculation of an emergency rate cut in the US has also emerged, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index has improved and increased uncertainty.
Speculation of a significant rate cut has emerged following the US July employment statistics. Concerns about a sudden deterioration in the economy and a possible recession have increased, leading to speculation of an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve before the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Concerns about a recession in the US economy have eased as the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index has recovered, leading to a temporary halt in risk-off sentiment and selling of the dollar.
In the London foreign exchange market on the 5th, the dollar-yen fell from 143.56 yen to 141.76 yen. Amidst a global stock market decline, it is believed that the yen strengthened not only through adjustments to holdings, but also due to risk aversion. Subsequently, the US July ISM Non-Manufacturing Index showed better-than-expected improvement, easing concerns about an economic downturn and resulting in a buyback of the dollar.
Nvidia temporarily fell below $100 amid reports of a potential delay in the next-generation AI semiconductor. This has also caused bearish sentiment.
The US stock market on the 5th continued the risk-off sentiment from the end of last week, experiencing a significant decline. High-tech stocks were also predominantly sold, with Nvidia leading the way. The company's stock fell to the $90 range at one point, with scenes where it fell below $100. The reported delay in the company's next-generation AI semiconductor, "Blackwell," due to a design flaw, has also put pressure on the company's stock.
Other major news
FRB's expected interest rate cut within the year has been expanded to 1.25 points.
Amid increasing uncertainty about the future of the US economy, there is a growing expectation in the market for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve (FRB). According to the CME's FedWatch, the expectation is that the FRB will lower the policy interest rate to 4.00-4.25% by the end of the year. This incorporates the expectation of implementing a total interest rate cut of 1.25% in the FOMC meetings in September, November, and December, which would mean two significant rate cuts of 0.50% each.
Statement by the President of the Federal Reserve
San Francisco Federal Reserve President: Warns against overreacting to a single employment indicator, indicates that the economy is not necessarily deteriorating.
Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve: Able to wait for further data until the September meeting.
Cryptocurrency plummets, Bitcoin hits a six-month low.
Google loses antitrust lawsuit to the US Department of Justice, accused of abusing its position in online search.
Japanese ADRs are generally favored, with Chicago prices at ¥33,190, which is ¥1,810 higher than Osaka.
ADR (American Depositary Receipt) Japanese stocks, when compared to the Tokyo Stock Exchange (1 dollar = 144.13 yen), Japan Post <6178>, Mizuho FG <8411>, Honda Motor <7267>, Mitsui Fudosan <8801>, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group <8306>, Advantest <6857>, Mitsui & Co. <8031>, etc., are rising, with general buying dominance. The Chicago Nikkei 225 futures settlement price is 1810 yen higher at 33,190 yen compared to the Osaka day session. (Fisco)
Speculation of a significant rate cut has emerged following the US July employment statistics. Concerns about a sudden deterioration in the economy and a possible recession have increased, leading to speculation of an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve before the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Concerns about a recession in the US economy have eased as the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index has recovered, leading to a temporary halt in risk-off sentiment and selling of the dollar.
In the London foreign exchange market on the 5th, the dollar-yen fell from 143.56 yen to 141.76 yen. Amidst a global stock market decline, it is believed that the yen strengthened not only through adjustments to holdings, but also due to risk aversion. Subsequently, the US July ISM Non-Manufacturing Index showed better-than-expected improvement, easing concerns about an economic downturn and resulting in a buyback of the dollar.
Nvidia temporarily fell below $100 amid reports of a potential delay in the next-generation AI semiconductor. This has also caused bearish sentiment.
The US stock market on the 5th continued the risk-off sentiment from the end of last week, experiencing a significant decline. High-tech stocks were also predominantly sold, with Nvidia leading the way. The company's stock fell to the $90 range at one point, with scenes where it fell below $100. The reported delay in the company's next-generation AI semiconductor, "Blackwell," due to a design flaw, has also put pressure on the company's stock.
Other major news
FRB's expected interest rate cut within the year has been expanded to 1.25 points.
Amid increasing uncertainty about the future of the US economy, there is a growing expectation in the market for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve (FRB). According to the CME's FedWatch, the expectation is that the FRB will lower the policy interest rate to 4.00-4.25% by the end of the year. This incorporates the expectation of implementing a total interest rate cut of 1.25% in the FOMC meetings in September, November, and December, which would mean two significant rate cuts of 0.50% each.
Statement by the President of the Federal Reserve
San Francisco Federal Reserve President: Warns against overreacting to a single employment indicator, indicates that the economy is not necessarily deteriorating.
Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve: Able to wait for further data until the September meeting.
Cryptocurrency plummets, Bitcoin hits a six-month low.
Google loses antitrust lawsuit to the US Department of Justice, accused of abusing its position in online search.
Japanese ADRs are generally favored, with Chicago prices at ¥33,190, which is ¥1,810 higher than Osaka.
ADR (American Depositary Receipt) Japanese stocks, when compared to the Tokyo Stock Exchange (1 dollar = 144.13 yen), Japan Post <6178>, Mizuho FG <8411>, Honda Motor <7267>, Mitsui Fudosan <8801>, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group <8306>, Advantest <6857>, Mitsui & Co. <8031>, etc., are rising, with general buying dominance. The Chicago Nikkei 225 futures settlement price is 1810 yen higher at 33,190 yen compared to the Osaka day session. (Fisco)
Stocks Bought! Expectation stocks leading to today?- Japanese stocks
APAMAN <8889>, Cloud W <3900>, Kameda Confectioners <2220>, etc.
Stocks sold the day before! How will it affect today?Japanese stocks
Tokyo Electron <8035> (-18.5%), Mitsubishi UFJ <8306> (-17.8%), Toyota <7203> (-13.7%), etc.
APAMAN <8889>, Cloud W <3900>, Kameda Confectioners <2220>, etc.
Stocks sold the day before! How will it affect today?Japanese stocks
Tokyo Electron <8035> (-18.5%), Mitsubishi UFJ <8306> (-17.8%), Toyota <7203> (-13.7%), etc.
moomoo Securities Column Article
・Black Monday in Japanese stocks? When is the buying opportunity? Check out the 'progressive high dividend' stocks without dividend cut concerns!
・Tokyo Electron Ltd. unsponsored ADR has high hopes for AI semiconductors! Keeping an eye on the trends of US-China export regulations.
・Black Monday in Japanese stocks? When is the buying opportunity? Check out the 'progressive high dividend' stocks without dividend cut concerns!
・Tokyo Electron Ltd. unsponsored ADR has high hopes for AI semiconductors! Keeping an eye on the trends of US-China export regulations.
Tokyo stock market outlook
Stock market outlook for the 6th: rebound, short-term rebound phase due to oversold reaction
Stock market outlook for the 6th: rebound, short-term rebound phase due to oversold reaction
Foreign exchange
Key Market Events
![[Morning Report] Is it time to buy the dips in the global stock market? Speculation of an emergency interest rate cut in the US is also emerging. USD/JPY is in ...](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20240806/1722897739939-8d7b100f92.png/big?area=105&is_public=true)
Sources: Dow Jones, MINKABU, Bloomberg, Wealth Advisor, Fisco
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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