Muddled thinking about past results does not = future results
I am a fundamental investor that relies on historical information to analyse and value companies. Whenever I tell this to investors, they will often cite the well known disclaimer used by all financial advisers – past results does not equal future performance.
When I look at a company’s performance, I know that it is due to the “economic and other resources set-up (strategies, management, funding, etc).” that the company has. So if these result in a good performance in the past, there is a good chance that it will continue to do so in the near future.
Don’t think in terms of a continuation of the past numbers. Think in terms of the continuation of the past set-up That is the reason why track record is important in my analysis. It gives me confidence that the company has the set-up in place to deliver good performance.
Take the example of Rimbunan Sawit which had negative ROE yearly for the past 8 years. In contrast, here are many plantation companies (eg KFIMA) that had delivered positive ROE yearly for the past 8 years. So it cannot just be an external problem. I would think that unless there is some major change in the setup, the past = the future.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
