MUFG: We do not expect $CNY to continue its recent strong appreciation trend for long,
as 1)the Chinese real economy likely remains a big drag, and
2) PBOC still wants to avoid a one-sided appreciation of CNY in the context of the weak economic environment, and the fact that Chinese economy is more reliant on exports growth when domestic demand is under downward pressure and shows no signs of turning around.
2) PBOC still wants to avoid a one-sided appreciation of CNY in the context of the weak economic environment, and the fact that Chinese economy is more reliant on exports growth when domestic demand is under downward pressure and shows no signs of turning around.
$USD/CNY (USDCNY.FX)$ likely stay range-bound in the near term, with a tailwind of potential additional policy stimulus. Such a tailwind could strengthen the currency if the stimulus surprises the market.
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