Musk to Interview Trump on Monday Night. What It Means for Investors
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump announced last week that he will have "an important interview with Elon Musk" on Monday night, August 12th. Despite Musk's statement that the interview with Trump will be "unscripted with no limits on subject matter," there is much speculation on the topics that might be discussed during tonight's broadcast at 8 p.m.ET, as well as the potential impact on financial markets.
Donald Trump's Interview with Elon Musk
Aug 12 19:00
1. The latest polls and approval ratings for the presidential election
With less than three months until the November 5th election, the Democratic Party's fortunes have taken a turn for the better after President Biden's withdrawal. Vice President Harris has seen a significant boost in her support in recent polls and betting markets, not only erasing the advantage accumulated by former President Trump following the assassination attempt but even surpassing him.
Specifically, according to new surveys conducted by The New York Times and Siena College from August 5th to 9th, Harris is leading Trump in the swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, with a 4-percentage point lead (50% to 46%) among potential voters. On the world's largest prediction market, Polymarket, the probability of Harris winning has continued to expand, reaching 52% and surpassing Trump's support rate of 45%.
In terms of the economy, a survey conducted for the Financial Times and the University of Michigan Ross School of Business, which has been tracking voter sentiment on the issue for almost a year, shows, for the first time, the Democratic presidential candidate leading Trump. Specifically, 42% of voters indicate that they trust Harris more to handle economic issues, slightly higher than Trump's 41%.
Some speculate that Trump may use Monday's interview to further discuss his 2024 campaign strategy and macroeconomic policies, aiming to gain voters' confidence, expand his influence, and increase his support rate.
Another key figure in this interview is billionaire $Tesla (TSLA.US)$CEO Elon Musk, who may also touch upon his shift in political stance and alliance with Donald Trump. The two had a public dispute in 2022, exchanging insults on social media and at political gatherings. However, following the "failed assassination" incident on July 13th, Musk praised Trump on X, likening him to a tough candidate like Theodore Roosevelt, and publicly expressed support for Trump, including his plans to contribute approximately $45 million per month to a new pro-Trump super political-action committee.
Former Ford CEO Mark Fields said:
"The bottom line, a positive relationship with the president has a lot of benefits, not only potentially for Tesla, for things like autonomy or AI or robotics, but his other businesses like SpaceX."
2. The electric vehicle industry and Tesla
After establishing a new partnership with Musk, Trump's stance on the electric car industry has softened, although he does not support universal adoption of electric vehicles. Trump stated at a campaign rally in early August,
"I'm for electric cars. I have to be, because Elon endorsed me very strongly. So I have no choice."
Furthermore, considering Trump's hardline trade policies, including imposing high tariffs, this could potentially benefit Tesla's sales in the US market, especially as Tesla faces increasing competition in China. Moreover, if the government removes federal tax credits for purchasing new electric cars, Tesla is expected to further expand its market share by leveraging its position as an industry leader.
Investors are absorbing the positive impact of Trump's election on Tesla. On the first trading day following the attempted assassination of Trump and the public endorsement from Musk, Tesla experienced a significant jump of nearly 7% at one time.
3. Crypto
Both Musk and Trump have publicly expressed their support for cryptocurrency.
Musk has previously announced his personal holdings in cryptocurrencies such as $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$, $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$, and $Dogecoin (DOGE.CC)$. His companies, Tesla and SpaceX, have also ventured into the Bitcoin space and disclosed their positions in their financial reports. He even briefly considered accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment for Tesla vehicles, although this decision was later retracted due to environmental concerns. Nonetheless, Musk's embrace of the cryptocurrency market has left a lasting impression.
In the lead-up to the November election, Trump has been increasingly supportive of cryptocurrency. In early June, he met with a group of 12 executives and experts from the Bitcoin mining industry at the Mar-a-Lago Club. During the meeting, he not only pledged to be an advocate for the cryptocurrency mining industry upon his return to the White House, but also made a commitment that all future bitcoins will be produced in the United States. Trump believes that promoting the manufacturing and trading of Bitcoin in the US will not only strengthen the country's position in the global cryptocurrency market, but also stimulate the development of related industries and inject new energy into the US economy.
At the Bitcoin conference at the end of July 2024, Trump made a series of eye-catching promises to the crypto industry. These included establishing a strategic national Bitcoin reserve if elected, firing the current SEC chairman on his first day in office, setting up a Bitcoin Presidential Committee, and encouraging power plants to strengthen the electricity supply for Bitcoin mining. With Trump's determination to garner support in the cryptocurrency field, the price of Bitcoin sharply rebounded in subsequent trading, briefly surpassing $69,000.
Given that the cryptocurrency field is becoming a battleground in the presidential race, this interview may cover a range of cryptocurrency-related topics, including the development of cryptocurrencies in the United States, cryptocurrency regulatory policies, the latest support initiatives of cryptocurrency donors for Trump, and even the synergistic development of cryptocurrencies and the electric vehicle industry. If the dialogue between these two important figures in the crypto area releases more explicit and frequent positive news, it may boost industry confidence, thereby providing support for mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, as well as cryptocurrency-related stocks like $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$, $Coinbase (COIN.US)$, $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$, and $CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$.
4. Others
The two individuals may also discuss the current economic situation, particularly the challenges in terms of inflation, employment, and international trade, including how to support economic growth and innovation through policies.
Regarding the issue of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, Trump has publicly stated that the Fed should avoid doing so before the November election. He has even recently expressed a desire to have more say in the Fed's interest rate decisions if elected president. This attitude is not consistent with Musk's eagerness for an interest rate cut. Some investors are eagerly awaiting further insights from both individuals regarding expectations of this week's inflation data and the possibility of a rate cut.
Given Elon Musk's massive fan base and X platform's significant influence, some speculate whether Monday night's interview will attract more voters and once again boost Trump's approval ratings, leading the "Trump Trade" takes center stage again.
Building upon Trump's advocacy for revitalizing American manufacturing, trade protectionism, and strengthening domestic energy production, Trump Trade 2.0 revolves around loose fiscal policies (including tax cuts), increased trade tariffs, and weakened financial regulations. This could potentially provide a boost to small-cap stocks, healthcare stocks, traditional energy stocks, regional bank stocks, Bitcoin, and related concept stocks. In the bond market, trades betting on a steepening yield curve may also receive more attention.
Source: Polymarket, CNBC, USNews, Financial Times, Reuters, Truth Social
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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doctorpot1 : @ZnWC
Space Dust : 2 famous conmen sitting in a
. l.y.i.n.g. to me.. first comes Narcissism, then comes bragging, then comes arrogance in a rusty cyber truck carriage
74726283 : Potential good time to buy some doge
RDK79 : Elon …. So disappointed…
PS: robotaxi…. from 8/8 to maybe next year…
Maybe focus on your businesses and not support convicted felons trying to destroy a democracy.
Lucky Dog An : Tesla's performance today provides the answer... Chicken feathers in one place
tessie Space Dust : that's fucking cringe. are you 9?
Yog Sothoth Space Dust : it's going to be pathetic and weird haha
我只想赚个买菜钱 : ok
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BearBear98 Space Dust : Can I plagiarize your comment. love it.
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