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Chinese NEV manufacturer repainting the world passenger car map ~ Part 2: BYD that won't take a step back against Tesla ~

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太郎丸 wrote a column · Sep 20, 2023 09:45
First NEV manufacturer to reach 5 million units
Last 8/9, China's largest NEV manufacturer $BYD COMPANY(01211.HK)$The 5 millionth NEV “Denza (Denza) N7” was released from the (1211) production line. It took 13 years until the cumulative production volume of the company's NEVs reached 1 million units, but it was an event of about a year and a half from 1 million units to a cumulative total of 3 million units, and only 9 months from 3 million units to a cumulative total of 5 million units. Before we catch a glimpse of the company's strength, which marked the milestone of producing 5 million units for the first time as an NEV manufacturer, I would like to look back on the company's 23/6 interim financial results.
In the company's interim financial results for the fiscal year ending 23/6, sales were 26,124 million yuan, up 72.7% from the same period last year, and net profit was 10.954 billion yuan, up 2 times from the same period last year. Although sales exceeded market expectations, net profit fell slightly below market expectations. NEV sales for the fiscal year ended 23/1-6 were 1,25,600 units, up 95.8% from the same period last year, of which 74,300 units were for overseas markets (55,900 units for the full fiscal year 2022). As price competition intensifies in the Chinese EV market, the lineup (150,000 yuan to 1.1 million yuan) represented by the Dynasty (Dynasty) series, Ocean (Ocean) series, etc. is substantial, and the company, which utilizes the cost advantage of a “vertically integrated type,” which develops and manufactures the main EV parts itself, continues to hold the top market share position in the Chinese EV market.
Monthly changes in the number of BYD units sold (unit: units)
Monthly changes in the number of BYD units sold (unit: units)
 Monthly changes in the number of BYD overseas sales units (unit: units)
Monthly changes in the number of BYD overseas sales units (unit: units)
The company's main line laps scheduled to debut in the future
The company's main line laps scheduled to debut in the future
“Vertical integration” backs up price reduction strategies
Tesla ( $Tesla(TSLA.US)$), and as price reduction battles between EV manufacturers unfold, most EV manufacturers have been forced to split cost sales. Looking at the gross profit margins of major EV companies for the first half of '23, Tesla's gross profit margin was 18.2%, ideal ( $Li Auto(LI.US)$) showed a good fight with 21.2%, while Ulai ( $NIO Inc(NIO.US)$) is 1.0%, Xiaopeng ( $XPeng(XPEV.US)$) was ▲1.0%. The company's gross margin ratio was 18.3%, which is almost on par with Tesla. The company, which has adopted a “vertical integration type,” has dominated the EV price reduction battle through flexible cost reductions. When UBS disassembled the company's 22-year sedan “Seal (seal),” it became clear that the ratio of parts manufactured in-house rose to 75%, which is double the global average. As a result of thorough supply chain control by our company, we have come to have an advantage of 10% or more in terms of cost compared to Tesla and an advantage of 25 to 35% over Western EV manufacturers.
The graph below includes the average sales price, average cost, average gross margin, and average gross margin ratio per unit of the company's NEV. The average sales price of the company's NEV for the fiscal year ended 23/4/6 was 156,600 yuan. Although there was a price drop of 13,300 yuan compared to the previous quarter, gross profit fell 1,000 yuan to 34,000 yuan in response to a drop of 12,000 yuan in average cost. While gross profit per unit began to decline slightly, the price reduction strategy paid off, and sales results for the fiscal year ended 23/4/6 were 703,600 units, up 27.4% from the previous quarter.
NEV sales unit price and cost (green), gross margin (yellow), gross margin ratio (line) changes (unit: 10,000 yuan, quarterly)
NEV sales unit price and cost (green), gross margin (yellow), gross margin ratio (line) changes (unit: 10,000 yuan, quarterly)
The company's technical capabilities that support rapid advance
When the Nikkei Shimbun conducted a “major product/service share survey” on 63 main items in 2022 in the global market, the United States took the lead with 22 items, followed by China with 16 items, and Japan remained at 6 items. China, which has a high market share in the EV field, automotive lithium-ion battery field, insulator field for lithium-ion batteries, etc., is expanding its market share with 18 items. In the case of the company, both EVs and automotive lithium-ion batteries have eaten into 2nd place in market share.
The company's R&D expenses in 2022 will rise to 20.2 billion yuan, accounting for 4.77% of operating profit. The “blade battery,” a long, sword-like battery cell developed by the company, is known as the company's specialty technology. Unlike mainstream batteries called “ternary systems,” it is characterized by high thermal stability, long charging/discharging cycle life, and low cost since rare metals are not used by adopting lithium-ion iron phosphate batteries. Meanwhile, in order to overcome the shortcomings of low energy density and short EV cruising range, the company succeeded in extending the cruising range by installing more cells in a limited space. The Japanese subsidiary of the company was also equipped with “blade batteries” in the new EV buses “J6” (small buses) and “K8” (large buses) introduced for the Japanese market in 22/5. The life span of an EV battery is generally “8 years or 160,000 km,” but the company's warranty period is “8 years or 400,000 km,” which is unrivaled by other companies.
A “blade battery” with sword (blade) cells lined up
A “blade battery” with sword (blade) cells lined up
New bus “J6”
New bus “J6”
While a bullish sales target of 3 million units was set this year, cumulative sales volume up to August remained at 1.78 million units, 60% of the annual target. Looking at the company's sales trends, it is growing steadily, with over 260,000 units in July and over 270,000 units in August, but clearly the hurdle seems high for the remaining 4 month sales target of 1.2 million units. The company's management team said at the financial results briefing on 8/29 that Chinese NEV manufacturers have already entered an elimination phase, and that they will invest in survival over the next 3 to 5 years to develop a full line wrap and a thorough price reduction strategy. Against the backdrop of China's national policy support, along with the rapid increase in EV ventures, it is said that there will be 300 NEV manufacturers in China. We cannot take our eyes off the company's trends more and more from the Chinese NEV market, where the downturn has unfolded. Next time, I would like to take a look at the three emerging EV companies listed in the US market: NIO (NIO), Xiaopeng (XPEV), and Ideal (LI).
BYD target stock price
BYD target stock price
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