Novice prediction: Are the institutions harvesting retail investors?
Disclaimer: I am a novice, this is my homework and reasoning training for myself. I am looking for a stock that I think has a market maker, observing their operations...
These are some insights I've gained from observing this stock for 2 weeks, purely a novice's personal opinions. Also, it's my first time writing this kind of review, so "there's a high likelihood of being wrong," if you see any mistakes, please point them out, don't scold me 🙏🏻🫡
After observing this stock for a period of time (2 weeks), I noticed some interesting operating patterns.
1. This stock has a market maker who sets traps in the technical indicators.
Targeting bottom-fishing retail investors, day trading investors with T+3. (If you don't have money, you definitely need to admit losses, close positions, and exit.)
Every time a buy signal appears, it's not the profound kind, but the kind that ordinary people can easily understand as a buy signal. It will have a wave, then a reversal.
When reaching high levels, the stock price will be supported at several price levels with increased trading volume, with a turnover rate of over 20% or 30%. Afterwards, the volume decreases (observed on 1-minute to 30-minute candlestick charts).
When the stock price lacks downward momentum, it will have another wave with increased volume, and then distribution to retail investors at high levels. (Observed on 1-minute to 30-minute candlestick charts).
Novice Speculation:
[This is a three-day candlestick pattern, with the basic pattern being a morningstar indicating a bullish outlook, forecasting a strong bottom reversal.]
First day, a short-bodied bearish candle.
Second day, the candlestick forms a doji, where the closing price is the same or only 1-2 price levels different from the opening price, regardless of the high or low close.
On the third day, with a gap up open and close and a similar increase as the first day's bearish candlestick, the Morning Doji Star pattern may form (generally) and it is a good time to enter the market at the close.
My strategy: I assume my guess is correct, and the market maker is indeed setting traps based on technical indicators.
"If" the closing price today is between 0.385 and 0.375, and the candlestick forms a + shape, it indicates the Morning Doji Star pattern for the next day.
Therefore, it is speculated that the market will open higher tomorrow. If there is a higher gap up open in the first 1-5 minutes on the chart tomorrow with increasing volume, reaching a high level (the highest high and low of the day before yesterday), the price will consolidate at a few levels with high turnover rates of over 30%. After that, the volume decreases, followed by a period of 30 minutes, then another increase in volume near the same price level. I will definitely not follow this, because it is likely a manipulation through charts to make retail investors think the Morning Doji Star pattern is forming and it is time to buy the dip. If the volume on the 27th is higher than the 26th, or even higher than the previous Friday's close, then I would consider it breaking the historical low, heading towards 0.33. I believe this has already scared off some courageous traders. If the market makers test whether there are fearless traders, they may push the price down to 0.3-0.28.
This will be completed this week or next without significant bearish news, and if there is positive news, there will be a rapid rebound, catching everyone off guard with a sudden bullish candlestick.
Finally, my story comes to an end. Please leave your comments, advice, and guidance. After all, I am a newcomer, so please be kind with your criticisms 🤝
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<黑胡空>
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JQ9555 : 666, but I really hope you're wrong, because I'm just bold; the deeper you fall, the bigger the cake gets.
SevenSeaS : Beginner's reply
Retail investors can't handle so many shares, in such a fierce bid market, the retail investors who dare to enter the market are all carrying the word "brave" on their chests and shouting, 'Charge!'. So the market makers can't cut so many leeks.
The female boss's margin call seems to have stopped the bleeding, and the recent financial reports won't be too bad.
Beginner's analysis:
Block orders exceed two groups, because the company is valuable and everyone is bidding to absorb funds, fighting to the death. In the process, they will also absorb the floating and retail funds. From the easing of trading volume in the past few days, it can be seen that it will gradually stabilize.
When one of the main forces gains control of the chips, things will develop in a positive direction.
Regardless of who wins or loses, the stock price will eventually rebound, and it will rebound very quickly.
Those who have the word 'brave' on their chest can boldly enter the market.
胡空 HuKong OP JQ9555 : In fact, I placed a 0.33 order. I was closely following this stock. After analysis, I didn't think I should enter the market, but last week, when the positive trend rose, I dropped by 0.425. As a result, I lost a little bit and quickly closed my position. Check it out first. However, I think this stock will be speculated; I'm just verifying my analysis now.
胡空 HuKong OP SevenSeaS : I haven't read enough chips yet. I haven't learned it yet. Can you give me some advice?
SevenSeaS 胡空 HuKong OP : Everyone is new to learning from each other, so I wouldn't dare to give compliments.
As can be seen from the chip peak, there is a strong selling pressure at 0.39 and 0.42, and there are very few profitable chips. Basically, they are all covered
胡空 HuKong OP SevenSeaS : Oh, in this range, the bars are the amount of chips invested. The red ones are calculated based on the current stock price, and the red ones are bought above the stock price, and the green ones are bought below the stock price. Red P/L is negative, and the 8% profit ratio is those green chips.
The pressure level is that most of the pressured chips have been lifted, and they have confidence in stocks, so let's push up the stock price together.
A support level is a price at which someone thinks it is worth buying; buying at that price makes it a support level.
Is this the correct interpretation?
What other ranges do they mean when they coincide?
SevenSeaS 胡空 HuKong OP : Profit ratio: percentage of profitable chips
Average cost: the average price of all chips
Pressure level: the average price of chips in a complete set of slots
Support level: Average chip price for a total profit order
90% chip range: the price range over which 90% of chips are distributed
70% chip range: The price range where 70% of the chips are distributed
Chip range coincidence: refers to the coincidence ratio of different chip ranges. The higher the degree of coincidence of chips in the two ranges, which indicates that chip costs are concentrated, and the fluctuation of stock prices is less.
SevenSeaS 胡空 HuKong OP : Clicking on the symbol in the red circle will take you to the help center for more detailed explanations.
胡空 HuKong OP SevenSeaS : Thank you, it's useful![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
胡空 HuKong OP SevenSeaS : 我去读了筹码详细解说，本来看不明白，谢谢你的指点,学到一点了
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