News Summaries
The rally after BTC's 2024 half-life has yet to begin, Capriole Investments executives say.
According to analysts, market dynamics are shifting towards a possible rise in the second half of 2024.
Bitcoin [BTC] is stuck within $0.06 million to $0.07 million in its fourth month of range trading. After an incredible performance of 68% of profits in the first quarter of 2024, cryptocurrencies have not seen significant gains.
In fact, after the halving incident in the second quarter of 2024, it fell 11%, and so far it has only recovered 6% in the third quarter.
Are BTC gains after the halving still likely?
Overall, BTC has risen 9% since the April half-life event. However, digital assets had yet to see the typical parabolic rally of events after past halving.
This outlook is from Charles Edwards, founder of crypto hedge fund Capriol Investments.
“This Bitcoin cycle hasn't started yet”
Source: X/ Charles Edwards
Unlike current single-digit gains, the past half-life saw BTC record a 3-digit rally after the half-life event.
According to the attached chart from Capriol Investments, BTC recovered 630% after the 2020 half-life event. In 2016 and 2012, assets surged 1,400% and 5,500%, respectively.
According to some analysts, a similar serious start to the 2024 parabolic run could begin in September.
In fact, analysts at Coinbase and JPMorgan have warned that the recent rally above $0.06 million700 may not be sustainable.
In short, the recent rally may not be the beginning of a parabolic run after the long-awaited halving.
Whales' demand for Bitcoin's surge
Meanwhile, demand from US spot BTC ETFs is accelerating. The product accumulated +41K BTC in the first 3 weeks of July. This accumulation, led by BlackRock, has since surpassed the BTC ETF net YTD (year-over-year) net flow of $17 billion.
Source: X/HOLD15 Capital
This also boosted Bitcoin whales to a two-year high. Additionally, overall BTC short positions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) have declined significantly.
In response to the decline in overall CME futures short positions, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju said:
“Open interest for both long and short positions has increased, but is net negative. We are now not negative, similar to the level of 10 months ago when the BTC price was $27,000.
This is particularly true of Mt. If Gox's supply pressure clears, it could be another setup for BTC's explosive execution.
In such a bullish scenario, market analyst Stockmoney Lizards suggested that BTC could reach 0.09 million dollars by fall 2024.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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