This week's earnings and economic calendar (10/14~10/18) The prologue of semiconductor earnings! Retail revenue and earnings hold the key to the all-time high value update of US stocks.
This week, Japanese stocks are expected to perform well. With the start of the House of Representatives election in Japan and the widening anticipation of wanting to assess political trends domestically, the stock market is 慎重な姿勢を維持することが予想される。円安の進行が日本株の下値を支える一方で、選挙結果に対する不透明感が市場心理に影響を与える可能性がある。一方、 $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$and, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$などの主要半導体企業が来週決算を発表予定だ。半導体関連株は、これらの決算結果によって再評価される可能性があり、市場全体の動向に大きな影響を与えるだろう。また、今後は決算シーズンに入ってくるため、銘柄ごとの物色に向かいそうだ。
In the USA, this week, have been announcedandwill grow or decrease.Cigna Corp is gaining attention. Majorfinancial institutionsand, technology companiesearnings reports are scheduled. In addition to the above semiconductor-related stocks, $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$、 $Bank of America (BAC.US)$、 $Netflix (NFLX.US)$Performance is attracting attention. In particular, the results of Netflix's earnings announced on the 17th may impact large tech stocks.There is a possibility of speculation spreading to large tech stocks..
US retail revenue is an important indicator of consumer trends in the US, especially as recent retail revenue has shown strength exceeding expectations, therefore, whether this trend will continue is being closely watched..However, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor released last Friday, personal consumption expenditures decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous month, and retail sales revenue.suggesting a possibility.
At present, the trend of the US stock market continues to maintain a bullish sentiment,incorporating a quite aggressive profit growth story,and if that scenario falls apart in the next few weeks,a reassessment of valuationmay take place. According to FactSet, the estimated PE ratio of the S&P500 is currently around 22 times, exceeding the 10-year average of 17.7 times. This high valuation is mainly due tohigh expectations for strong earnings growth.andSupported by the monetary easing policy of the US Federal Reserve.Therefore, in order to maintain this bullish market, it is necessary for the third quarter earnings season to bring positive results.Uncertainty continues as attention is focused on the direction of potential US interest rate cuts and the search for direction.Dell rises more than 3% after hours, significant growth in revenue and profit in the AI server sector from May to July.
This week's USD/JPY is Speculation on the US keeping interest rates unchanged in November is growing, with the dollar approaching the psychologically important 150 yen level again, while voices calling for a response from Japanese authorities are also emerging. In particular, if the dollar exceeds 150 yen, there is concern about the potential intervention by Japanese authorities. Additionally, in the event of increased tension in the Middle East, a strengthening of the yen due to risk aversion could also be expected.The situation remains uncertain as attention is focused on the direction of potential US interest rate cuts and the search for direction. Amid speculation that the US will be keeping interest rates unchanged in November, the dollar is once again approaching the psychologically important 150 yen mark. Meanwhile, there are calls for a response from the Japanese authorities. In particular, if the dollar surpasses 150 yen, there is caution regarding the possibility of intervention by the Japanese authorities. Additionally, in the event of heightened tension in the Middle East, there is a possibility of a further strengthening of the yen due to risk aversion.
1. The Nikkei average rebounds after 2 weeks, back to 9000 yen with a gain of 0.03 million.
2. In the US stock market, the earnings season begins with the Dow and S&P 500 hitting record highs in a bullish 5 weeks.
3. The expectation of a 0.25 point rate cut strengthens in the USA. Unyielding US inflation, jobless claims at a high level for the first time in a year.
4. AI-related stocks continue to hit new highs, indicating an optimistic signal to the market.
5. The US earnings season begins! The strong performance of bank stocks leads the market, influencing the direction of the financial sector in the market.
6. Tesla falters, bringing a wave of downgrades to Apple and Amazon.
Last week in the Tokyo stock market, the Nikkei average rose for the first time in two weeks by ¥970 (2.5%) to ¥96,605, a solid performance overall. Strong economic indicators led to a rise in US long-term interest rates, resulting in a stronger dollar and weaker yen in the foreign exchange market. This provided a tailwind for Japanese stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector. On Friday before the 3-day weekend, there was some buyer hesitation but the market maintained steady movements.
Last week, the US stock market showed a strong upward trend. $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$and $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$are bothreached a new all-time high,while both the indices and the Nasdaqrecorded a 5-week consecutive increase.All three indices achieved weekly gains of over 1% each.
Rise in crude oil prices.、Rising bond yields、Escalation of tensions in the Middle East.Last week's impact on US stocks hit by unclear events, but the bulls were able to regain ground later. Market expectations for the US Federal Reserve's rate cut were exceeded by better-than-expected economic indicators.Continues to decline.On the other hand, according to CME's FedWatch tool, in NovemberThe probability of a 25bp rate cut is 87%.However, it was indicated in the FOMC minutes thatthere is internal disagreement.which is casting doubt on this outlook.
Last week's bond yields rose mainly due to higher-than-expected inflation data. The 2-year US bond yield rose from 3.923% to 3.955%, and the 10-year yield also rose by about 10 basis points from 3.981% to 4.085%.
In last week's economic indicators,there is higher-than-expected US inflation data.andThe number of initial unemployment insurance claims has reached a high level for the first time in a year.Inflation is still moving towards the Fed's long-term target, but remains relatively persistent, weakening market expectations of rate cuts.As long as the rise in government bond yields is due to the strong economy rather than a resurgence in inflation, the bullish market will be maintained.I guess.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): Overall, a 0.2% month-on-month increase, exceeding the expected 0.1% increase. Core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, also surpassing the expected 0.2% increase. The year-on-year overall increase was 2.4%, exceeding expectations and hitting a low level since February 2021. Core CPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations.
- Producer Price Index (PPI): The overall index remained flat month-on-month, below market expectations. Core PPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, matching expectations. The year-on-year overall increase was 1.8%, consistent with expectations, while Core PPI remained at 2.4% as expected.
- New jobless claims: Increased by 0.258 million from the previous week to 0.033 million, surpassing the expected 0.229 million, reaching the highest level since August 2023. Continued unemployment claims increased by 20,000 to 1.86 million, reaching the highest level since late July.
Another factor in last week's bullish market in the USA was,Resurgence of interest in AI-related stocks.It is. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$、 $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$、 $Palantir (PLTR.US)$、 $Oracle (ORCL.US)$AI-related players such asboth updated their 52-week or all-time highthis week. In particular, software giant PalantirApproaching the significant milestone of a $100 billion market capitalization.If Nvidia, representing AI, achieves a new all-time high, it could signal continued strong performance in AI trading to the market.
Meanwhile, investors are focusing on assessing the health of the US economy as we head into earnings season.The strong start to the third quarter earnings season lifted stock prices.。 $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$as profits and revenue exceeded market expectations, with the stock price rising 4.4% on the 11th.4.4% increase.It was done. $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$With profits exceeding expectations,5.6％it rose. Wall Street considers the banking sector as an important indicator of the state of the economy, which tends to set the tone for the rest of the earnings season.。
Apart from earnings reports, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$The stock price of Apple dropped last Friday due to the highly anticipated product announcement disappointing analysts.excluding earnings reports.It was done. $Apple (AAPL.US)$and $Amazon (AMZN.US)$Cigna Corp was downgraded last week, with the former being lowered to "Hold" and the latter to "Equal Weight". $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$on the 7th,Rose by 15.8%.The company revealed that they are currently shipping 0.1 million GPUs and over 2000 liquid-cooled racks per quarter.
Source: MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Yahoo Finance, Schwab
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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古河美香 : Not good ♪
181338057犬心久美子 : A future without things like AI or semiconductors becoming outdated and obsolete as seen on social media and videos.
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and
, it's complicated.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
'That can't be true!
If these things are not present, then it will truly be the end.
Artificial intelligence, robots, aircraft, PCs, smartphones
Factory robots, etc. Elon's tesla
EV autos. Speaking of Tesla, it seems that the SpaceX Dragon
has been active, and in the future, they plan on lightweighting
rockets for sanitary return from space
being able to guide them to a safe landing spot
In the sea
Right now, he might be head over heels in love with the space division.
In a way, it's Elon Musk's charm to be aggressively forward-thinking
in a good way.
His clear-cut personality and straightforwardness
make him likable.