Next week's earnings and economic calendar (10/14~10/18) The prologue of semiconductor earnings! Retail revenue and earnings hold the key to record highs in US stock history.
Positive expectations for the Japanese stocks next week. With the start of the lower house election in Japan and the widening speculation about observing political trends, the stock market is慎重な姿勢を維持することが予想される。円安の進行が日本株の下値を支える一方で、選挙結果に対する不透明感が市場心理に影響を与える可能性がある。一方、 $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$Ya. $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$などの主要半導体企業が来週決算を発表予定だ。半導体関連株は、これらの決算結果によって再評価される可能性があり、市場全体の動向に大きな影響を与えるだろう。また、今後は決算シーズンに入ってくるため、銘柄ごとの物色に向かいそうだ。
米国では来週は、have been announcedandwill grow or decrease.is attracting attention. Major financial institutions Ya.technology companies earnings reports are scheduled. In addition to the semiconductor-related stocks mentioned above, $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$、 $Bank of America (BAC.US)$、 $Netflix (NFLX.US)$Performance is attracting attention. In particular, depending on the financial results announced on the 17th by Netflix,there is a possibility of a ripple effect in the large tech stock sector.Exists.
US retail revenue is an important data showing the trends of US consumers, especially as recent retail revenue has shown strength exceeding financial estimates,the continuation of this trend is being closely watched.However, according to CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor released on Friday, personal consumption expenditure has decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous month, and the retail revenueshowed soft results.may suggest.
Currently, the trend in the US stock market remains bullish,incorporating a quite aggressive profit growth story,and if that scenario collapses in the coming weeks,a reassessment of valuationsmay be carried out. According to FactSet, the expected PE ratio of the S&P500 is currently around 22 times, exceeding the 10-year average of 17.7 times. This high valuation is mainly due toexpectations of strong earnings growth.andSupported by the Fed's monetary easing policy.Therefore, in order to maintain this bullish market,It is necessary for the third quarter earnings season to bring good results.Dell rises more than 3% after hours, significant growth in revenue and profit in the AI server sector from May to July.
For the dollar-yen next week, The uncertain development of anticipating the direction of the US rate cuts continues.It seems that speculation about the U.S. keeping interest rates unchanged in November is increasing, and the dollar is once again approaching the psychologically significant 150 yen level. At the same time, there are voices calling for attention to the response of the Japanese authorities. In particular, if the dollar exceeds 150 yen, the possibility of intervention by the Japanese authorities is feared. Also, in the event of escalating tensions in the Middle East, it is also possible for the yen to appreciate due to risk aversion movements.
The Nikkei average rebounded for the first time in two weeks, recovering to 90,000 yen again.
The US stock market starts the earnings season with Dow and S&P500 reaching all-time highs, bullish for 5 weeks.
0.25 points increase in US interest rate cut expectations. Persistent US inflation shows, unemployment insurance claims at a high level for the first time in a year.
AI-related stocks continue to hit new highs, showing an optimistic signal to the market.
The US earnings season kicks off! Strong performance of bank stocks leads the market, influencing the market direction of the financial sector.
Tesla stumbles, facing downgrades compared to Apple and Amazon.
This week in the Tokyo stock market, the Nikkei average rose for the first time in two weeks, up 970 yen (2.5%) from the previous week to 20,605. It was generally a strong market this week. Strong economic indicators led to a rise in long-term US interest rates, resulting in a stronger dollar and weaker yen in the foreign exchange market. This provided tailwinds for Japanese stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector. Despite some reluctance from buyers heading into the three-day weekend on Friday, the market maintained a stable movement.
The US stock market showed a strong upward trend this week. $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$and $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$are bothreached a new all-time high,and both indices and the Nasdaqrecorded 5 consecutive weeks of growth.All three indices achieved weekly gains of over 1%.
Rise in crude oil prices.、Rising bond yields、Intensification of the Middle East situation.The rise in bond yields on Monday had an impact on US stocks, but the bulls were able to regain ground afterwards. Market expectations for the Fed rate cut werecontinuing to decline.According to CME's FedWatch tool, in November There is an 87% probability of a 25bp interest rate cut.However, it has been indicated in the FOMC minutesinternal conflicting viewscausing doubts in this outlook.
This week, bond yields rose primarily due to higher-than-expected inflation data. The 2-year US Treasury yield rose from 3.923% to 3.955%, and the 10-year yield also increased by approximately 10 basis points from 3.981% to 4.085%.
This week's economic indicators includehigher-than-expected US inflation data.andThe number of new initial jobless claims reaching the highest level in a year was highlighted.Inflation is still progressing towards the FRB's long-term target, but it has been relatively persistent, resulting in the market weakening its speculation of a rate cut.As long as the rise in government bond yields is due to a strong economy rather than a resurgence of inflation, the bullish market will be maintained.I guess.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): The overall month-on-month increase was 0.2%, exceeding the expected 0.1% increase. The month-on-month core CPI increase was 0.3%, also surpassing the expected 0.2% increase. The year-on-year overall increase was 2.4%, higher than expected and hitting a low level since February 2021. The year-on-year core CPI increase was 3.3%, surpassing expectations.
- Producer Price Index (PPI): The overall month-on-month remained flat, below market expectations. The core PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, matching expectations. The year-on-year overall increase was 1.8%, in line with expectations, while core PPI was as expected at 2.4%.
- New initial jobless claims: Increased by 0.033 million people from the previous week to 0.258 million people, exceeding the expected 0.229 million people and reaching the highest level since August 2023. The number of ongoing jobless claims increased by 20,000 to 1.86 million, reaching a high level not seen since late July.
Another factor contributing to the bullish market sentiment in the US this week isRenewed interest in AI-related stocks.It is. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$、 $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$、 $Palantir (PLTR.US)$、 $Oracle (ORCL.US)$AI-related players such asall hitting 52-week or all-time highs this week.In particular, software giant PalantirApproaching a market capitalization of nearly 100 billion dollars.If Nvidia, a leading AI representative, achieves a new all-time high, it could signal continued strong performance in AI trading to the market.
Investors are focusing on assessing the health of the US economy as they head into earnings season.The strong start to the third-quarter earnings season pushed stock prices higher.。 $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$With profits and revenues exceeding market expectations, stock prices rose by 4.4% on the 11th.4.4% increase.Done. $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$with profits exceeding expectations5.6％rose. Wall Street considers the banking sector as an important indicator of the economy's health, tending to set the tone for the rest of the earnings season。
Apart from earnings reports, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$'s stock price dropped 8.8% on Friday as the long-awaited product announcement disappointed analysts, declining by 8.8%Done. $Apple (AAPL.US)$and $Amazon (AMZN.US)$This week, one was downgraded to "hold" and the other was downgraded to "equal weight". $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$on the 7th,Increased by 15.8%The company revealed that it is currently shipping 0.1 million GPUs and over 2000 liquid-cooled racks per quarter.
Source: MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Yahoo Finance, Schwab
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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