Next week's financial and economic calendar (10/7~10/11), the earnings season begins! Will the strong US stocks reach new heights with earnings and CPI?
Next week's Japanese stocks are expected to follow market trends while keeping an eye on exchange rate movements, with little influence from the foreign exchange marketCheck the domestic demand stocks.There seems to be a lot of attention on these. Additionally,the earnings announcements of retail companiesmay prompt a reevaluation of the domestic economy. $Fast Retailing (9983.JP)$and $Seven & i Holdings (3382.JP)$Earnings reports are scheduled, and these performances will significantly impact the Nikkei Average.
On the other hand, Prime Minister Ishiba's dissolution of the Lower House and the scheduled general election may affect the market.From past experience, elections are expected to have a positive effect on stock prices. However, due to the low approval rating of the Ishiba administration, the effect may be limited.
In the US market,Consumer Price Index (CPI)etcthe Producer Price Index (PPI) is scheduled to be announced. These data are important indicators for confirming the trend of inflation. While the outlook for a significant rate cut at the November meeting by the Federal Reserve Board is diminishing, if the strength of the U.S. economy is confirmed,it could have a positive impact on the stock market.In addition, as a noteworthy point, $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$etc $Blackrock (BLK.US)$Major banks such as gan ltd are releasing earnings reports, The start of the earnings season for companies in the USA is approaching.This will lead to the market's interest in corporate performance, which is likely to become a factor in stock price volatility.
A steady trend is expected for the dollar-yen next week. Prime Minister Ishiba's dovish stance supports a weaker yen, and depending on the results of US economic indicators, there is a possibility of the dollar strengthening. Particularly, as speculation grows that the Federal Reserve will not make a significant rate cut at the November meeting, the dollar may become dominant. On the other hand, attention also needs to be paid to the developments regarding Israel and Iran in the Middle East. If geopolitical risks escalate further, the yen, considered a low-risk currency, may be preferred, while there is also a possibility that the US dollar, as a safe haven currency, may be bought. If there is increased buying of the dollar in times of crisis, it could become a factor pushing the dollar-yen exchange rate higher.
1. The Nikkei average falls for the first time in 4 weeks - Nikkei average falls due to Ishiba shock, recovery trend with weak yen and high stocks but cautious sentiment due to Middle East situation
2. US stocks record the highest September since 2019
3. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell says "no rush for rate cuts", emphasizing the strength of the economy
4. The escalating situation in the Middle East and the sharp rise in crude oil prices are causing ripples in the market.
5. Changes in the US economic indicators signaling a potential rate cut, attracting attention to the Fed's easing cycle.
6. Unexpected surge in non-farm payroll statistics, with the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in November rising sharply to 92.9%.
The Nikkei average in the Tokyo stock market this week closed at ¥8620, a decrease of ¥1193.94 (3%) from the previous week, totaling ¥8635.62 million after falling for four weeks. The Japanese stock market this week started off with fluctuations due to the 'Ishiba Shock' following Fumio Kishida's election as LDP President, with the Nikkei average temporarily dropping by ¥1910. However, Hawkish remarks by Prime Minister IshibaetcStrong US economic indicators providing supportall contributing to a stronger trend of yen depreciation and stock market rally, showing signs of recovery in the market.Intensification of the Middle East situation.Continues to be a source of concern, but with the upcoming lower house elections, some believe that negative factors from within the country are limited.
In the US stock market, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on September 30 indicated that there is no need to rush interest rate cuts in the future, but also stated that necessary measures will be taken to revitalize the economy. In response to this, US stocks reached all-time highs, ending September and the third quarter.Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on September 30 indicated that there is no need to rush interest rate cuts in the future. While also stating the intention to take the necessary measures to revitalize the economy.In response to this, US stocks reached all-time highs, ending September and the third quarter.Ending September and the third quarter with new record highs in the US stock market.The three major US indices have overcome seasonal headwinds,ending September in positive territory for the first time since 2019。
However,Elevated geopolitical risksHowever,resulted in an unstable start to the stock market in October,as Iran launched over 100 ballistic missiles against Israel, causing a sharp drop in US stocks on the first day. As a result, WTI and Brent crude oil prices,A significant increase after about a year.In addition, following President Biden's mention of the possibility of retaliatory attacks by Israel on Iran's oil facilities, crude oil prices rose by more than 5% on the 3rd, reaching approximatelythe highest level in about a month.Has become.
Meanwhile, after Chairman Powell suggested that there is no need to rush for rapid rate cuts, investors are seeking further clues to determine the direction of the Fed's easing cycle. This week, the U.S. economic indicators are generallyindicating that there is no need for a significant rate cut at the November meeting by the Federal Reserve Board.In particular, after the announcement of the significantly higher-than-expected number of non-farm payrolls in the U.S., the probability of expecting a rate cut of 25 basis points in Novemberis high.isRapidly increased from 67.9% to 92.9%.Done.
- USA JOLTS Job Openings: Unexpectedly increased, leading to a view that while the labor market is cooling down, it is not decelerating rapidly. The number of job openings in August significantly surpassed the market expectation of 7.69 million to reach 8.04 million, and the July results were also revised upward from the preliminary 7.67 million to 7.71 million.
- USA ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for September: At 47.2, lower than market expectations and the same level as August. Particularly weak in the employment sector, dropping from 46.0 in August to 43.9 in September.
- ADP Employment Change: Recorded employment growth exceeding expectations, contradicting other indicators showing a cooling labor market. A month-on-month increase of 0.143 million jobs, indicating a rebound after 5 months of slowing growth. August's increase was also upwardly revised to 0.103 million jobs.
- Initial Jobless Claims: Slightly exceeded the market expectation of 0.221 million with 0.225 million claims, and the previous value was revised upward from 0.218 million to 0.219 million.
- S&P Global Services PMI Flash Estimate: Recorded 55.2, falling below the expected value of 55.4 as well as the previous figure of 55.4.
・ISM非製造業景気指数：54.9と市場予想の51.7を大きく上回り2023年2月以来の高水準。3カ月連続で50を上回り活動拡大となった。
・米非農業部門雇用者数：0.254 million人増と予想を大幅に上回り、3月以来最大の伸びとなった。失業率は予想外に4.1%に低下し、労働市場の大幅な悪化に対する市場の懸念は緩和された。7月と8月の雇用者数が合計0.072 million人上方修正された。
今週の注目銘柄に関して、 $Tesla (TSLA.US)$は2日に第3四半期の世界納車台数を発表。納車台数は前年同期比6.4％増と今年初のプラス成長となったが、fell below market expectations。このデータを受けて同社株は2日と3日、それぞれA decrease of more than 3%.Tesla's next important event is,the highly anticipated Tesla 'RoboTaxi Event' scheduled to take place on October 10 next week.In this event, the company is expected to showcase prototypes of dedicated robot taxis and emphasize its new strategy utilizing AI for self-driving technology.potential impact on the stock price..
$Apple (AAPL.US)$ofraising alarms about demand for iPhone 16.。バークレイズによると、台湾の主要サプライヤーが提供するiPhoneの重要半導体部品の注文が3 million件削減される可能性がある。モルガンSが前3世代より短いと指摘されている。シティも9月と12月のiPhone販売予測をDownward revisionDone.
その他、スポーツ用品大手の $Nike (NKE.US)$The company's revenue for the first quarter fell below expectations, leading to a withdrawal of the company's full-year outlook on the 2nd day.It dropped by more than 6%.The CFO of the company stated at the earnings call, 'We have not yet seen a turnaround.'
Source: MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Yahoo Finance, Schwab
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