This week's earnings and economic calendar (11/18-11/22) The moment of truth! Nvidia's earnings determine the market's fate, is it a good opportunity to buy semiconductor stocks on dips?
This week's Japanese stock market $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$With earnings reports approaching,attention is focused on semiconductor-related stocks.As domestic corporate earnings wrap up and new material becomes scarce, the performance of Nvidia could determine the market direction for the Tokyo market, where semiconductor-related stocks hold significant weight. In the first half of the week, it is difficult to deal with semiconductor stocks under the circumstances of wanting to ascertain this content.Overall, the market is increasingly adopting a wait-and-see attitude.If the earnings reaction is positive, investors can expect a bullish shift in sentiment, while a negative reaction could lead to a risk-off scenario. However, amid the continued rise in long-term interest rates in the United States,there are concerns about headwinds facing growth stocks.Furthermore, if the Nikkei Stock Average reaches the 90,000 yen range,there may be increased selling pressure,making the path to recovery at 40,000 yen both near and far.
Nvidia's earnings report is scheduled for November 20th. Market estimates project Nvidia's revenue to increase by 82.27% year-on-year to $33.027 billion.revenue will increase by 82.27% year-on-year to 33.027 billion dollars.、1株当たり利益が同87.25％増の0.69ドルになるという。これはまた、同社はachieving record-high revenue and profits for the 6th consecutive quarterことを意味する。Bloombergコンセンサス予想によると、エヌビディアの最も重要な事業であるデータセンターの売上高は、前年比100.38%増の29.083 billionドルになると予想されている。つまり、同事業が同社の総売上に占める割合が、前四半期の87.5%から88.06%に拡大すると予想される。市場予想を上回る決算が発表されれば、同社だけでなく、関連する半導体株やETFにもポジティブな影響を与えるだろう。特に、同社の業績がS&P500に占める割合が大きいため、市場全体への影響も無視できない。
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$、Googleの親会社である $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$、 $Meta Platforms (META.US)$などの「M7」企業は、今年AIインフラに200 billionドルannounced an investment in. As a result, NVIDIA's performance is highly likely to exceed expectations. And last week,ウォール街大手銀が相次いでNVIDIAの目標株価を引き上げた。市場は非常に強気の見方を示している。
This week's USD/JPY is after the US presidential electionTrump's upcoming administration's policies and expectations of rate hikes in the USA are supporting the strong dollar, while Japan's currency authorities are escalating measures against yen depreciation. With no factors to repurchase the yen, The key event will be Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda's speech. Governor Kuroda's speeches are scheduled for the 18th and 21st. If he makes strong statements towards a rate hike at the December monetary policy meeting, there is a possibility of yen repurchase.Mr. Kuroda's speech is crucial.The speech by Governor Kuroda is scheduled for the 18th and 21st. If he makes a decisive statement about a rate hike at the December monetary policy meeting, there may be a repurchase of the yen.
1. The Nikkei Average fell for the first time in three weeks, with weak domestic earnings.
Wall Street finishes the unstable week with a large negative.
3. The impact of the Triple Red! The policy promotion system is being established. Mr. Trump's power is significantly strengthened.
4. Bitcoin continues to hit new highs, with gold plummeting significantly due to the Trump 2.0 effect.
5. Chairman Powell emphasizes a cautious approach without rushing to cut interest rates, with the possibility of postponing the December rate cut.
6. Signs of a change in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting strategy due to the strength of the US economic indicators.
Warren Buffett's new investment scenario is revealed on a large scale!
Last week in the Tokyo stock market, the Nikkei average fell for the first time in three weeks by 857.46 yen (2.17%) to 8642.91 million yen, ending at a decrease of 0.03 million compared to the previous week. While the yen depreciated and the dollar strengthened in the foreign exchange market last week, Japanese stocks did not react positively to this. Domestic corporate earnings announcements, excluding insurance and others, have passed their peak. According to SMBC Nikko Securities, as of the 14th, the net profits for the current fiscal year of TOPIX constituent companies (excluding financial institutions)Expected to decrease by 1.5% compared to the previous period.Japanese stocks are in a situation where it is difficult to pursue further upside in terms of performance.
In the US stock market, the three major indices in the USバリュー株の代表格It ended with a significant decline.Nasdaq and S&P 500 stock price indices, respectively,recorded their worst weekly performance since September, losing some of the gains following Mr. Trump's presidential election victory last week.recorded. Investor interest is focused on important economic indicators and the cabinet appointments planned by President-elect TrumpMoving to …,The momentum after the election is weakening.It seems. At the same time, doubts about the sustainability of the rise in the US stock market are beginning to emerge. According to BofA, investors are exposed to US stocks.the highest level in 11 years, and Citi's strategist,and City, such bullish bets arebecome the foundation for profit-taking selling.They are saying that. At the same time, the market is considering the impact of Mr. Trump's cabinet appointments on policies.
The 'Triple Red' scenario involves the US Federal Reserve and inflation.
On the 13th, it became certain that the Republican Party would become the majority party in the House. With the Republican Party holding the presidency and the majority in both houses, the 'global strategy' will make it easier for President Trump to push through his policies.Triple Redmaking it easier for President-elect Trump to advance his policies.It will form a 'global strategy' where the President Trump’s policies will be easier to implement with Republican taking the majority in the presidency and both houses.The US bond market has already priced in the potential impact of President Trump's policies.US bond yields rose significantly last week.and wiped out most of this year's increase in US bond yields. Analysts,US 10-year bond yield has the potential to return to 5%.JP Morgan has seen changes since Mr. Trump's inauguration.With this victory, it may become a supporting factor for the surge in the stock market after the election. The US bond market has priced in the potential impact of President Trump's policies.US bond yields have surged this week, erasing most of this year's gains.Bob Michele from JP Morgan suggests that there is potential for the US 10-year bond yield to return to 5%.They issued a warning.
After the Republican Party took control of both houses,Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for the first time made a statement. RecentThe US economy is "quite good"In addition, Jensun Juan, CEO of [company name], made a bullish comment.and gives the Federal Reserve Board room for cautious rate cuts, there is no need to rush rate cutsFRB firstUnderstanding and evaluating the economic impact of the policies that President Trump will implement in the future.Expressed the opinion that there is time, and then responded. In response to this, the market...Expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) have receded.The probability of a rate cut in December isThe probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased from 82.5% to 60.6%.I did.
Trumpt trade calming down
バリュー株の代表格The Trump trade has calmed down.. However, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$Still affected by the 'Trump effect'andsurpassing 0.093 million dollarsHighest level in the past is updated. $Dogecoin (DOGE.CC)$Small digital currencies and other digital currencies also rose. In contrast, gold fell last week.recording a low of about 2 months.Records the lowest price in about 3 months.
「トランプ2.0」で、なぜビットコインは急騰し、金は急落したのか？ 分析によれば、「トランプ2.0」は政府の介入を減らし、拡張的な財政支出を避ける「小さな政府」により傾く可能性があり、それはビットコインのような「非集中型」資産にとって好材料となっている。一方、この慎重な財政スタイルは、金の安全資産としての特性を抑制し、ヘッジ資産としての魅力を弱めた。
Another hot stocks to watch is the 'Trump Trade'. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$Stocks also cooled down last week. Meanwhile, the role of the company's CEO, Mr. Mask, in the upcoming Trump administration became clearer. The incoming President Trump will appoint him.「政府効率化省（DOGE）」のトップis nominated. Morgan Stanley has high expectations for Tesla's potential in self-driving, energy, and AI sectors, and the company's stock price is来年500ドルに達する可能性stated the presence of.
Other hot stocksRegarding, $Palantir (PLTR.US)$Stocks are continuing to update historical record highs this week. The company is transferring its listing from the New York Stock Exchange to the NASDAQ.andNovember 26, 2024announced plans to be listed on the nasdaq exchange. After the transfer, it is expected to meet the eligibility requirements for the nasdaq 100 index. Additionally, the company announced earlier last week that it will strengthen its AI business.Renewed partnership with Rio Tinto.Has been announced.
About the US economic indicators.
Regarding last week's US economic indicators, there is a high possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, but the pace of rate cuts next year will depend on President Trump's policies.There is a possibility of a slowdown.It is being analyzed.
- In October, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to a 3-month high year-on-year, but it was as expected. The CPI recorded a 2.6% increase year-on-year and a 0.2% increase month-on-month, both in line with expectations. The rise in core CPI was also as expected, reaching 3.3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month.
- In October, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased across the board, with a 0.2% increase month-on-month, as expected. Core PPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with expectations.
The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased to 0.217 million, reaching the lowest level since May. The number of continuing jobless claims decreased by the expected 0.011 million to 1.873 million.
In October, retail sales increased by 0.4% compared to the previous month. This exceeded the pre-market expectations. Surpassing market expectations for the 5th consecutive month, ahead of the year-end shopping season, this result reaffirmed the strength of consumer spending.
According to analysis, attention should be paid to the last employment statistics before the December meeting. If the data exceeds expectations, there is a possibility that the US Federal Reserve Board will postpone the interest rate cut in December.It is necessary to pay attention to the last employment statistics before the December meeting.andInflation data.If the data exceeds expectations,There is a possibility that the US Federal Reserve Board will postpone the interest rate cut in December.Pointing out the possibility that the US Federal Reserve Board may postpone the interest rate cut in December.
Last week, the 13F quarterly reports of major financial institutions were released. Among them, led by the renowned American investor Mr. Buffett $Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$ga $Apple (AAPL.US)$、 $Bank of America (BAC.US)$、 $Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US)$、 $Sirius XM (SIRI.US)$、 $Charter Communications (CHTR.US)$のShares held were decreased.On the other hand, $Domino's Pizza (DPZ.US)$and specializes in the sale of swimming pool equipment and components. $Pool Corp (POOL.US)$を新規取得Acquired two new companies,have something in common.。
Since the beginning of this year, both companies have been lagging behind the overall market performance. Domino's Pizza's stock price is being suppressed due to the pressure on consumer spending in the low-income group. In addition, due to a cautious stance on discretionary spending, Pool's demand is sluggish, affecting the stock price of Pool Inc.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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